The model missed the final outcome (TransINVEST Vilnius win 3–0).
The model had projected FK Žalgiris Vilnius at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 FK Žalgiris Vilnius TransINVEST Vilnius ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 31.0% | 33.4% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.3% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| FK Žalgiris Vilnius | 39.5% | 40.3% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah TransINVEST Vilnius win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned FK Žalgiris Vilnius; match finished TransINVEST Vilnius
Market lesson
The full-time result was TransINVEST Vilnius win 3–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · TransINVEST Vilnius 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · FK Žalgiris Vilnius 39.5%
- xG · TransINVEST Vilnius 1.21 — FK Žalgiris Vilnius 1.39
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · TransINVEST Vilnius 2.78 · Draw 3.53 · FK Žalgiris Vilnius 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · TransINVEST Vilnius 33.4% · Draw 26.3% · FK Žalgiris Vilnius 40.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · TransINVEST Vilnius 2.78 · Draw 3.53 · FK Žalgiris Vilnius 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · TransINVEST Vilnius 33.4% · Draw 26.3% · FK Žalgiris Vilnius 40.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result TransINVEST Vilnius win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
83/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.53
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
TransINVEST Vilnius win · TransINVEST Vilnius 3–0 FK Žalgiris Vilnius
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"selection": null,
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_score_rate": 75.1,
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"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 28,
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"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
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"scores": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "TransINVEST Vilnius or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "TransINVEST Vilnius or FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "TransINVEST Vilnius or FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"pick_prob": 70.5
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"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 31.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius"
},
"over_under": {
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 4.1,
"implied_prob": 28.3,
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"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.34,
"draw": 26.28,
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 16:29:21",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE10",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 16:20:24",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "TransINVEST Vilnius",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.3
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
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{
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
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{
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},
"p_final": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "-19.5%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "+14.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"edge": 0.0102,
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"no": {
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},
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"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0877,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1203,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.0,
"text": "-12.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0877,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10078.93,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0808,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.1,
"text": "-8.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.04,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"sort_key": 1790.0,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.23,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 40.3,
"market_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0808,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.23,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.23,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0808,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: TransINVEST Vilnius 1.21 xG vs FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 1.39 \u2192 FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 39.5%",
"Market: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius ~40.3% implied",
"Market Drift: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.35,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "TransINVEST Vilnius",
"market_prob": 33.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.23,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.88,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob": 40.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.64,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.64,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.61,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.61,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.28,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.23,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -0.8,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-0.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -0.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: TransINVEST Vilnius 1.21 xG vs FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 1.39 \u2192 FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 39.5%",
"Market: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius ~40.3% implied",
"Market Drift: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.23,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.23,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.35,
"edge_pp": -2.35,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "TransINVEST Vilnius",
"market_prob_pct": 33.38,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.23,
"edge_pp": 3.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.28,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.88,
"edge_pp": -0.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob_pct": 40.34,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius (40.3%).",
"However, FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +10.0%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, Market \u2192 FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, while FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.33,
"closing_odds": 3.53,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.33,
"entry_odds": 3.53,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 13m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius (10.0%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.30",
"2.15",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.30 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 13m",
"pick_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.3,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"steam_score": 57,
"steam_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fk-zalgiris-vilnius",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"away_team_id": 586,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/586.webp",
"away_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"away_team_public_id": "0UAoiE7TfoC3Lw",
"away_team_slug": "fk-zalgiris-vilnius",
"country_code": "LT",
"country_display_name": "Lithuania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lt.svg",
"country_id": 96,
"country_name": "Lithuania",
"fixture_id": 1547636,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Lithuania",
"home_team_display_name": "TransINVEST Vilnius",
"home_team_id": 18878,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18878.webp",
"home_team_name": "TransINVEST Vilnius",
"home_team_public_id": "27TAHdmtVOT96M",
"home_team_slug": "transinvest-vilnius",
"ht.home_team_slug": "transinvest-vilnius",
"league_country": "Lithuania",
"league_country_display": "Lithuania",
"league_display_name": "A Lyga Lithuania",
"league_id": 362,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/362.webp",
"league_name": "A Lyga Lithuania",
"league_public_id": "35AQixtulzhnHF",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 16:30:00",
"public_id": "37GxAxTUwKhYK7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Galine",
"venue_name": "FK TransINVEST stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4443,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.0808,
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4034,
"draw": 0.2628,
"home": 0.3338
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.3996
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2856,
"best_odd": 3.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.2628,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4034,
"draw": 0.2628,
"home": 0.3338
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.272
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4342,
"best_odd": 2.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.1005,
"implied_prob": 0.3338,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4034,
"draw": 0.2628,
"home": 0.3338
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.3236
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0398,
"ev": -0.0916,
"implied_prob": 0.4348,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.53,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": 0.0405,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.78,
"edge": -0.0494,
"ev": -0.1373,
"implied_prob": 0.3597,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1632,
"alpha_yes": 0.2244,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0561,
"edge_yes": -0.0561,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0877,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0687,
"ev_yes": -0.1203,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1131,
"implied_no": 0.4009,
"implied_yes": 0.5991,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1632,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.3947,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4049
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2244,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.6053,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5913
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4049,
"p_final_yes": 0.5913,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2136,
"alpha_under": 0.1942,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.21,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0864,
"edge_under": 0.0864,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1139,
"ev_under": 0.1448,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0445,
"implied_over": 0.5684,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5733,
"implied_under": 0.4316,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4267,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5538,
"p_final_under": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1448,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1448,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1448,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius, but the model still strongly favours FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0808,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.0808,
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1632,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0102,
"market_prob": 0.3947,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1632,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.3947,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4049
},
"p_final": 0.4049,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0687,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2244,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.014,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.6053,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5913
}
},
"edge": 0.0561,
"ev": 0.0877,
"implied_prob": 0.4009,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"p_final": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0864,
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1547636,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1448,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"home": "TransINVEST Vilnius"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.052504,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.4316,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0808,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-0.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-9.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1547636,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T16:29:23.400245+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk TransINVEST Vilnius & FK Žalgiris Vilnius!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
A Lyga Lithuania — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 51 |
| 2 | Sūduva Marijampolė | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 50 |
| 3 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 4 | FK Žalgiris Vilnius | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Banga | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 6 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevėžys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kauno Žalgiris | 28 | 56 | 20 | +36 | 51 |
| 2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 45 |
| 3 | FK Žalgiris Vilnius | 28 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 44 |
| 4 | Sūduva Marijampolė | 28 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 50 |
| 5 | Džiugas Telšiai | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 38 |
| 6 | Banga | 28 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 41 |
| 7 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Panevėžys | 28 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 32 |
| 9 | Šiauliai | 29 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 10 | FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
