AI correctly predicted the Zimbabwe win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Zimbabwe Zimbabwe ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Leone | 33.3% | 35.5% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 33.9% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Zimbabwe | 37.1% | 30.6% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Zimbabwe's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.6%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Zimbabwe win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Zimbabwe.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Zimbabwe more conservatively (30.7% vs model 37.1%, 6.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Zimbabwe win 2–3).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sierra Leone 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Zimbabwe 37.0%
- xG · Sierra Leone 1.26 — Zimbabwe 1.34
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sierra Leone 2.61 · Draw 2.74 · Zimbabwe 3.03
- Implied 1X2 · Sierra Leone 35.5% · Draw 33.9% · Zimbabwe 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sierra Leone 2.61 · Draw 2.74 · Zimbabwe 3.03
- Implied 1X2 · Sierra Leone 35.5% · Draw 33.9% · Zimbabwe 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Zimbabwe win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.03
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Zimbabwe win · Sierra Leone 2–3 Zimbabwe
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"alert_team": "Sierra Leone",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"decision_chain": {
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zimbabwe at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.6%.",
"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
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"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zimbabwe",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
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"ok": true,
"value": "no"
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{
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"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zimbabwe).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0196,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3061,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33003300330033003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.45,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"steam_team": "Sierra Leone",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zimbabwe).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zimbabwe)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zimbabwe)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zimbabwe at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zimbabwe as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zimbabwe",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zimbabwe).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0196,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3061,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33003300330033003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sierra Leone 1.26 xG vs Zimbabwe 1.34 \u2192 Zimbabwe 37.1%",
"Market: Sierra Leone ~30.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Sierra Leone odds \u2191 +9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Zimbabwe with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.23,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Sierra Leone",
"market_prob": 35.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.22,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.45,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Zimbabwe",
"market_prob": 30.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.47,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.47,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.27,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.93,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.93,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Zimbabwe",
"market_prob_pct": 30.61,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Sierra Leone"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Zimbabwe\u0027s win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 30.6%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Zimbabwe",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Zimbabwe \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sierra Leone 1.26 xG vs Zimbabwe 1.34 \u2192 Zimbabwe 37.1%",
"Market: Sierra Leone ~30.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Sierra Leone odds \u2191 +9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Zimbabwe with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.45,
"hero_label": "Zimbabwe",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Sierra Leone odds lengthened \u2191 +9.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sierra Leone has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Zimbabwe.",
"note": "Drift away from Sierra Leone \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Zimbabwe.",
"However, Sierra Leone has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sierra Leone \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Zimbabwe.",
"At the same time, Sierra Leone has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Sierra Leone."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Zimbabwe",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.5,
"lead": "The model rates Zimbabwe considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.23,
"edge_pp": -2.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sierra Leone",
"market_prob_pct": 35.54,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.22,
"edge_pp": -4.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.45,
"edge_pp": 6.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Zimbabwe",
"market_prob_pct": 30.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sierra Leone \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sierra Leone (30.6%).",
"Sierra Leone odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.3%, 7/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Zimbabwe, Market \u2192 Sierra Leone, while Sierra Leone odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.0,
"closing_odds": 3.03,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.0,
"entry_odds": 3.03,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Sierra Leone (9.3%, 7/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.61",
"2.38",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.62 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 55m",
"pick_team": "Sierra Leone",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.61,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.61"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Sierra Leone",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Sierra Leone",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sierra Leone",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Sierra Leone",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Sierra Leone",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "zimbabwe",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Zimbabwe",
"away_team_id": 1522,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1522.webp",
"away_team_name": "Zimbabwe",
"away_team_public_id": "28fzbMw513Bz2h",
"away_team_slug": "zimbabwe",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1545832,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sierra-Leone",
"home_team_display_name": "Sierra Leone",
"home_team_id": 1499,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1499.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sierra Leone",
"home_team_public_id": "2b6pQA2jZ3Pso8",
"home_team_slug": "sierra-leone",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sierra-leone",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Kelayakan Piala Negara-Negara Afrika",
"league_id": 36,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/36.webp",
"league_name": "Kelayakan Piala Negara-Negara Afrika",
"league_public_id": "4NBRtBLCnaegxZ",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 19:00:00",
"public_id": "1GRd2A2wmGuJce",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "El Jadida",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.271,
"best_odd": 3.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0196,
"implied_prob": 0.3061,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3061,
"draw": 0.3385,
"home": 0.3554
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3236
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4213,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.3385,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3061,
"draw": 0.3385,
"home": 0.3554
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.3206
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4352,
"best_odd": 2.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0095,
"ev": -0.0973,
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3061,
"draw": 0.3385,
"home": 0.3554
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3458
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.03,
"edge": 0.0405,
"ev": 0.1227,
"implied_prob": 0.33,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": -0.069,
"ev": -0.189,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.61,
"edge": -0.0497,
"ev": -0.1296,
"implied_prob": 0.3831,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2068,
"alpha_yes": 0.188,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1093,
"edge_yes": 0.1093,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1164,
"ev_yes": 0.199,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0358,
"implied_no": 0.5643,
"implied_yes": 0.4357,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0227,
"ev": -0.1164,
"implied_prob": 0.5648,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5421
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.188,
"best_odd": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.4352,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4559
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5421,
"p_final_yes": 0.4559,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1462,
"alpha_under": 0.201,
"best_over_odd": 2.69,
"best_under_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.595,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1247,
"edge_under": -0.1247,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2966,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0264,
"ev_under": -0.2385,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1101,
"implied_over": 0.3573,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3569,
"implied_under": 0.6427,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6431,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1462,
"best_odd": 2.595,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0264,
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3752
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.201,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.6431,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.618
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3752,
"p_final_under": 0.618,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zimbabwe)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Zimbabwe at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Zimbabwe as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Zimbabwe",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Zimbabwe).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0196,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3061,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33003300330033003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0196,
"implied_prob": 0.3061,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Zimbabwe"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.188,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.4352,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0227,
"ev": -0.1164,
"implied_prob": 0.5648,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5421
},
"p_final": 0.4559,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0358,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.188,
"best_odd": 2.115,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.4352,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4559
}
},
"edge": 0.1093,
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4357,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1462,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.595,
"edge": 0.0183,
"market_prob": 0.3569,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1462,
"best_odd": 2.595,
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0264,
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3752
},
"p_final": 0.3752,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0264,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.201,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.6431,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.618
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1247,
"ev": 0.2966,
"implied_prob": 0.3573,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1545832,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2966,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.2966,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.2966,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Zimbabwe",
"home": "Sierra Leone"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.108455,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.199,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0196,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3061,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33003300330033003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1226,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+12.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1545832,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T18:59:26.396004+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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