The model missed the final outcome (America SP win 1–3).
The model had projected Santa Fé FC at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Santa Fé FC America SP ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Santa Fé FC; match finished America SP
Market lesson
The full-time result was America SP win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jun 12, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Santa Fé FC 1.32 — America SP 1.28
-
Jun 12, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result America SP win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
America SP win · Santa Fé FC 1–3 America SP
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.3%",
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2717",
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"status_line": "Market disagrees with model",
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"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
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{
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"outcome": "draw"
},
{
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"outcome": "away"
},
{
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{
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{
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"label": "BTTS Yes",
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},
{
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"outcome": "no"
}
],
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"edge_pp": -30.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "America SP",
"market_prob_pct": 65.12,
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"steam_team_name": "Santa F\u00e9 FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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"edge_status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"max_gap_pp": 30.88,
"suppress_hero": true,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"divergence_level": "breakdown",
"divergence_level_label": "Model breakdown risk",
"divergence_note": "The model and market differ by 30.9 percentage points. The model output may be unreliable for this matchup \u2014 validate inputs before interpreting probabilities.",
"divergence_tier": "breakdown",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_prob_pct": 13.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"paragraphs": [
"Model and market diverge materially. Treat model probabilities as unreliable until inputs are validated."
],
"reliability_headline": "Model breakdown risk",
"reliability_icon": "\u2717",
"reliability_tier": "breakdown",
"summary": "Do not interpret model vs market comparison until validation passes.",
"tier": "breakdown",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Fail"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -30.88,
"hero_label": "America SP",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Santa F\u00e9 FC odds lengthened \u2191 +8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "very_weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Very weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 30.88,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_fail",
"status": "fail"
},
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 22.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"market_prob_pct": 13.79,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.09,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "America SP",
"market_prob_pct": 65.12,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "model_breakdown_risk",
"status_label": "Model Breakdown Risk",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers America SP (13.8%).",
"However, Santa F\u00e9 FC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +8.3%, 4/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Santa F\u00e9 FC, Market \u2192 America SP, Recent sharp money \u2192 Santa F\u00e9 FC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 73.53,
"closing_odds": 1.36,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 73.53,
"entry_odds": 1.36,
"model_validation_label": "Fail",
"model_validation_status": "fail",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "lost"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 6.5,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Santa F\u00e9 FC (8.3%, 4/6) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "8.00 \u2192 6.00 \u2192 6.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h",
"pick_team": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "6.50"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 6.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Santa F\u00e9 FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
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},
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"away_team_id": 22945,
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"country_code": "BR",
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"status_long": "Not Started",
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"venue_name": null
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"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Santa F\u00e9 FC"
},
"btts": {
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
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"value_side": "under"
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},
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"code": "thin_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0762,
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"stake_mult": 0.25,
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},
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"home": 0.3609
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"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
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"secondary_pick": null,
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"teams": {
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"home": "Santa F\u00e9 FC"
},
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
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},
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},
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"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T21:59:08.007082+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Paulista Série B — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bonifácio | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | America SP | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Assisense | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Tupã | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Riopretano | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Santa Fé FC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Bonifácio | 8 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Assisense | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Tupã | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
| 4 | America SP | 8 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | Santa Fé FC | 8 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 |
| 6 | Riopretano | 8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
