Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
Not available
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Druzhba Maykop Druzhba Maykop ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Druzhba Maykop win · 4–0
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
No prediction record
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Druzhba Maykop win · Druzhba Maykop 4–0 Izberbash
Prediction
No prediction record
Decision Grade
Not assessed
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"text": "+8.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_display": {
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"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1474,
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"text": "-14.7%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0707,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.1,
"text": "-7.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Druzhba Maykop",
"sort_key": 1782.325,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/2",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/2 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"alert_team": "Izberbash",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.61,
"hero_label": "Druzhba Maykop",
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"market_team": "Druzhba Maykop",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Druzhba Maykop",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Druzhba Maykop)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Druzhba Maykop)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Druzhba Maykop at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Druzhba Maykop as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Druzhba Maykop",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Druzhba Maykop).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1474,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/2",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.61,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.61,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"steam_team": "Izberbash",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Druzhba Maykop).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Druzhba Maykop)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Druzhba Maykop)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Druzhba Maykop at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Druzhba Maykop as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Druzhba Maykop",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Druzhba Maykop).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1474,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Druzhba Maykop 1.40 xG vs Izberbash 1.20 \u2192 Druzhba Maykop 39.9%",
"Market: Druzhba Maykop ~44.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Izberbash odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Druzhba Maykop with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.61,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Druzhba Maykop",
"market_prob": 44.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.55,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Izberbash",
"market_prob": 26.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.69,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.61,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.69,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.39,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Druzhba Maykop",
"market_prob_pct": 44.55,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Izberbash"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.61,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Druzhba Maykop",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Druzhba Maykop \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Druzhba Maykop 1.40 xG vs Izberbash 1.20 \u2192 Druzhba Maykop 39.9%",
"Market: Druzhba Maykop ~44.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Izberbash odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Druzhba Maykop with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.61,
"hero_label": "Druzhba Maykop",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Izberbash odds lengthened \u2191 +9.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Izberbash has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Izberbash has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Izberbash has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.61,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Druzhba Maykop",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.61,
"edge_pp": -4.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Druzhba Maykop",
"market_prob_pct": 44.55,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.55,
"edge_pp": 0.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.93,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.06,
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Izberbash",
"market_prob_pct": 26.52,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Druzhba Maykop (44.5%).",
"Izberbash odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.1%, 1/2) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Druzhba Maykop \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 50.0,
"closing_odds": 2.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 50.0,
"entry_odds": 2.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
}
],
"books_total": 2,
"breadth_display": "1/2",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.49,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 40h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market fading Izberbash (9.1%) \u2014 line drifting longer vs. open (1/2).",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.49",
"3.35",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.49 \u2192 3.20 \u2192 3.49",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 40h 23m",
"pick_team": "Izberbash",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.49"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.49"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
3.36,
3.49
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,8.1 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.49"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.49"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Illiquid",
"phase_tip": "Few bookmakers quoting \u2014 moves may not reflect broad market.",
"pick_team": "Izberbash",
"ref_book": "1xBet",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.49,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Izberbash",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_fading",
"signal_label": "Weakening",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/2",
"current_odds": 3.49,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Izberbash",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Izberbash",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "izberbash",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Izberbash",
"away_team_id": 27646,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Izberbash",
"away_team_public_id": "1FktzlDCdxpLss",
"away_team_slug": "izberbash",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_display_name": "Russia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_id": 132,
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1536282,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_display_name": "Druzhba Maykop",
"home_team_id": 6798,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6798.webp",
"home_team_name": "Druzhba Maykop",
"home_team_public_id": "2ZZs9E6wVPfYxl",
"home_team_slug": "druzhba",
"ht.home_team_slug": "druzhba",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_country_display": "Russia",
"league_display_name": "Liga Kedua Rusia - Kumpulan 1",
"league_id": 651,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/651.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Kedua Rusia - Kumpulan 1",
"league_public_id": "4h3YgbYgzSOxpv",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 13:00:00",
"public_id": "2GJhbNbBCdDyaG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Maykop",
"venue_name": "Adygeyskiy Respublikanskiy Stadion Druzhba Maykop"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2818,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": -0.0707,
"implied_prob": 0.2652,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2652,
"draw": 0.2893,
"home": 0.4455
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2766
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2975,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.104,
"implied_prob": 0.2893,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2652,
"draw": 0.2893,
"home": 0.4455
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2909
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4191,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1474,
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2652,
"draw": 0.2893,
"home": 0.4455
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4263
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": 0.0079,
"ev": 0.0267,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.08,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.0922,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": -0.1003,
"ev": -0.2006,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1533,
"alpha_yes": 0.1393,
"best_no_odd": 1.74,
"best_yes_odd": 1.98,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0769,
"edge_yes": 0.0769,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2048,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.102,
"ev_yes": 0.0751,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0606,
"implied_no": 0.5339,
"implied_yes": 0.4661,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1533,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5339,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5221
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1393,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4768
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.5221,
"p_final_yes": 0.4768,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1124,
"alpha_under": 0.1545,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.245,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.56,
"edge_over": 0.072,
"edge_under": -0.072,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0614,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0969,
"implied_over": 0.41,
"implied_over_mf": 0.41,
"implied_under": 0.59,
"implied_under_mf": 0.59,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1124,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0614,
"implied_prob": 0.41,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4181
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1545,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.59,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5789
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4181,
"p_final_under": 0.5789,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Druzhba Maykop)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Druzhba Maykop at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Druzhba Maykop as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Druzhba Maykop",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Druzhba Maykop).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1474,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1474,
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Druzhba Maykop"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1393,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0107,
"market_prob": 0.4661,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1533,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.102,
"implied_prob": 0.5339,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5221
},
"p_final": 0.4768,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0606,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1393,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0606,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4768
}
},
"edge": 0.0769,
"ev": 0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1124,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0081,
"market_prob": 0.41,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1124,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": -0.0614,
"implied_prob": 0.41,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4181
},
"p_final": 0.4181,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0614,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1545,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0111,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.59,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5789
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.072,
"ev": 0.0845,
"implied_prob": 0.41,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1536282,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0845,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Izberbash",
"home": "Druzhba Maykop"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.035886,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.4661,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1474,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2006,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1536282,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T13:00:16.420936+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Kedua Rusia - Kumpulan 1 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevastopol | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 50 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 46 |
| 3 | Rostov II | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 46 |
| 4 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 34 |
| 5 | Pobeda | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 33 |
| 6 | Kyzyltash | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 31 |
| 7 | Nart Cherkessk | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 28 |
| 9 | Druzhba Maykop | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 27 |
| 10 | Lugansk | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
| 12 | Izberbash | 21 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 18 |
| 13 | Angust Nazran | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| 14 | FK Chayka 2 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 |
| 15 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 14 |
| 16 | PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rostov II | 21 | 45 | 16 | +29 | 46 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 21 | 42 | 20 | +22 | 46 |
| 3 | Sevastopol | 21 | 38 | 17 | +21 | 50 |
| 4 | Pobeda | 20 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 33 |
| 5 | Kyzyltash | 21 | 36 | 30 | +6 | 31 |
| 6 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 34 |
| 7 | Nart Cherkessk | 20 | 27 | 19 | +8 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 20 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 28 |
| 9 | Lugansk | 21 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 24 |
| 10 | Druzhba Maykop | 20 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 20 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 21 | 19 | 39 | -20 | 14 |
| 13 | Izberbash | 21 | 19 | 57 | -38 | 18 |
| 14 | FK Chayka 2 | 21 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
| 15 | Angust Nazran | 20 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 16 |
| 16 | PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
