The model missed the final outcome (UWA Nedlands win 0–1).
The model had projected Joondalup City at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Joondalup City UWA Nedlands ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joondalup City | 35.6% | 27.1% | +8.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.0% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| UWA Nedlands | 34.7% | 48.8% | -14.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates UWA Nedlands's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah UWA Nedlands win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about UWA Nedlands than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Joondalup City; match finished UWA Nedlands
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Joondalup City by 14.1 percentage points (49.7% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Joondalup City 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · UWA Nedlands 34.7%
- xG · Joondalup City 1.31 — UWA Nedlands 1.29
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 06:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Joondalup City 3.31 · Draw 3.74 · UWA Nedlands 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Joondalup City 27.1% · Draw 24.0% · UWA Nedlands 48.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Joondalup City 3.31 · Draw 3.74 · UWA Nedlands 1.84
- Implied 1X2 · Joondalup City 27.1% · Draw 24.0% · UWA Nedlands 48.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result UWA Nedlands win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Joondalup City & UWA Nedlands!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Western Australia State League 1 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floreat Athena | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 2 | UWA Nedlands | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 44 |
| 3 | Mandurah City | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 4 | Joondalup City | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 5 | Quinns FC | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Inglewood United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Kingsley Westside | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 8 | Gwelup Croatia | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 9 | Cockburn City | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 10 | Murdoch Melville | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 11 | Subiaco | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 12 | Curtin University | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floreat Athena | 21 | 56 | 24 | +32 | 49 |
| 2 | Mandurah City | 22 | 47 | 39 | +8 | 36 |
| 3 | UWA Nedlands | 22 | 45 | 28 | +17 | 44 |
| 4 | Kingsley Westside | 22 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 32 |
| 5 | Murdoch Melville | 22 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 22 |
| 6 | Joondalup City | 22 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 36 |
| 7 | Subiaco | 22 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 20 |
| 8 | Gwelup Croatia | 22 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | Quinns FC | 21 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Cockburn City | 22 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 23 |
| 11 | Inglewood United | 22 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 33 |
| 12 | Curtin University | 22 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 13 |
