The model missed the final outcome (Suwon FMC win 2–0).
The model had projected Incheon Red Angels at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Incheon Red Angels Suwon FMC ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suwon FMC | 30.1% | 75.9% | -45.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 15.5% | +13.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Incheon Red Angels | 40.4% | 8.6% | +31.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Suwon FMC's win probability at 75.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 45.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Suwon FMC win 2–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Incheon Red Angels; match finished Suwon FMC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Incheon Red Angels by 45.8 percentage points (86.2% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Suwon FMC 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Incheon Red Angels 40.5%
- xG · Suwon FMC 1.19 — Incheon Red Angels 1.41
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Suwon FMC 1.22 · Draw 5.97 · Incheon Red Angels 10.78
- Implied 1X2 · Suwon FMC 75.9% · Draw 15.5% · Incheon Red Angels 8.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Suwon FMC 1.22 · Draw 5.97 · Incheon Red Angels 10.78
- Implied 1X2 · Suwon FMC 75.9% · Draw 15.5% · Incheon Red Angels 8.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Suwon FMC win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (46 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga WK — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon FMC | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 56 |
| 2 | Hwacheon KSPO | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | Gyeongju | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 34 |
| 4 | Boeun Sangmu | 23 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 32 |
| 5 | Gumi Sportstoto | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31 |
| 6 | Seoul | 23 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 29 |
| 7 | Incheon Red Angels | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 |
| 8 | Changnyeong | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon FMC | 24 | 58 | 19 | +39 | 56 |
| 2 | Gyeongju | 24 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 34 |
| 3 | Hwacheon KSPO | 22 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 45 |
| 4 | Boeun Sangmu | 23 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 32 |
| 5 | Gumi Sportstoto | 24 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 31 |
| 6 | Seoul | 23 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 29 |
| 7 | Changnyeong | 24 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 15 |
| 8 | Incheon Red Angels | 24 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 23 |
