AI correctly predicted the Taroona win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Taroona Taroona ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taroona | 40.1% | 34.5% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 27.7% | 20.7% | +7.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Olympia Warriors | 32.2% | 44.8% | -12.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Olympia Warriors's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.2%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Taroona win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Olympia Warriors than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Taroona higher (52.7% vs model 40.1%, 12.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Taroona win 3–2).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Taroona 40.1% · Draw 27.7% · Olympia Warriors 32.2%
- xG · Taroona 1.41 — Olympia Warriors 1.19
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Taroona 2.60 · Draw 4.33 · Olympia Warriors 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · Taroona 34.5% · Draw 20.7% · Olympia Warriors 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Taroona 2.60 · Draw 4.33 · Olympia Warriors 2.00
- Implied 1X2 · Taroona 34.5% · Draw 20.7% · Olympia Warriors 44.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Taroona win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Taroona & Olympia Warriors!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Tasmania Southern Championship — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart II | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 41 |
| 2 | Olympia Warriors | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 33 |
| 3 | New Town | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 32 |
| 4 | Taroona | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Hobart City | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 27 |
| 6 | Clarence Zebras II | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Glenorchy Knights FC 2 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Hobart United | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights II | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 |
| 9 | University of Tasmania | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 10 |
| 10 | South East United | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 | South East Utd. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart II | 17 | 77 | 21 | +56 | 41 |
| 2 | Taroona | 17 | 58 | 25 | +33 | 30 |
| 3 | New Town | 16 | 54 | 17 | +37 | 32 |
| 4 | Olympia Warriors | 17 | 47 | 28 | +19 | 33 |
| 5 | Hobart City | 16 | 41 | 28 | +13 | 27 |
| 6 | Clarence Zebras II | 16 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 22 |
| 7 | Glenorchy Knights II | 17 | 37 | 79 | -42 | 11 |
| 8 | Hobart United | 17 | 36 | 77 | -41 | 15 |
| 9 | Glenorchy Knights FC 2 | 9 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | University of Tasmania | 17 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 10 |
| 11 | South East United | 6 | 6 | 50 | -44 | 0 |
| 12 | South East Utd. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
