AI correctly predicted the Guizhou Zhucheng win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Guizhou Zhucheng Guizhou Zhucheng ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns II | 32.9% | 26.1% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 33.3% | -3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Guizhou Zhucheng | 37.5% | 40.7% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Wuhan Three Towns II's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.1%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Guizhou Zhucheng win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Wuhan Three Towns II.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Guizhou Zhucheng more conservatively (30.7% vs model 37.5%, 6.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Guizhou Zhucheng win 0–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
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Jul 19, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wuhan Three Towns II 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Guizhou Zhucheng 37.6%
- xG · Wuhan Three Towns II 1.25 — Guizhou Zhucheng 1.35
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Jul 19, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wuhan Three Towns II 3.45 · Draw 2.70 · Guizhou Zhucheng 2.21
- Implied 1X2 · Wuhan Three Towns II 26.1% · Draw 33.3% · Guizhou Zhucheng 40.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wuhan Three Towns II 3.45 · Draw 2.70 · Guizhou Zhucheng 2.21
- Implied 1X2 · Wuhan Three Towns II 26.1% · Draw 33.3% · Guizhou Zhucheng 40.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Guizhou Zhucheng win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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