The model missed the final outcome (Smiltene win 0–2).
The model had projected Super Nova 2 at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Super Nova 2 Smiltene ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova 2 | 38.0% | 48.8% | -10.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.1% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Smiltene | 32.4% | 27.1% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Super Nova 2's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Smiltene win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Super Nova 2 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Super Nova 2; match finished Smiltene
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Super Nova 2 by 10.8 percentage points (48.8% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Super Nova 2 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Smiltene 32.4%
- xG · Super Nova 2 1.36 — Smiltene 1.24
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Super Nova 2 1.82 · Draw 3.69 · Smiltene 3.28
- Implied 1X2 · Super Nova 2 48.8% · Draw 24.1% · Smiltene 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Super Nova 2 1.82 · Draw 3.69 · Smiltene 3.28
- Implied 1X2 · Super Nova 2 48.8% · Draw 24.1% · Smiltene 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Smiltene win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
45/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.82
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Smiltene win · Super Nova 2 0–2 Smiltene
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
"key": "12",
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},
{
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],
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"match_winner": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 15:00:13",
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"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:34:07",
"has_data": true,
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{
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{
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
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"ev_under_display": {
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},
"featured": true,
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{
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},
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"text": "+13.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1894,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.9,
"text": "-18.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1309,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10117.81,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2101,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.0,
"text": "-21.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4883,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0554,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.5,
"text": "-5.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Super Nova 2",
"sort_key": 1786.15,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.82,
"hero_label": "Super Nova 2",
"market_prob_pct": 48.8,
"market_team": "Super Nova 2",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Super Nova 2",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Super Nova 2)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Super Nova 2)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3675,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Super Nova 2 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Super Nova 2 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Super Nova 2",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Super Nova 2).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4883,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.82,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Super Nova 2",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Super Nova 2)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Super Nova 2)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3675,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Super Nova 2 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Super Nova 2 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Super Nova 2",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Super Nova 2).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4883,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Super Nova 2 1.36 xG vs Smiltene 1.24 \u2192 Super Nova 2 38.0%",
"Market: Super Nova 2 ~48.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Super Nova 2 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Super Nova 2 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.82,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Super Nova 2",
"market_prob": 48.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.51,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.3,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Smiltene",
"market_prob": 27.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.29,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.29,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.07,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.07,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Super Nova 2",
"market_prob_pct": 48.83,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Super Nova 2"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Super Nova 2\u0027s win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Super Nova 2",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Super Nova 2 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Super Nova 2 1.36 xG vs Smiltene 1.24 \u2192 Super Nova 2 38.0%",
"Market: Super Nova 2 ~48.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Super Nova 2 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Super Nova 2 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.82,
"hero_label": "Super Nova 2",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Super Nova 2 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Super Nova 2.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Super Nova 2 than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Super Nova 2."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Super Nova 2 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Super Nova 2 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Super Nova 2."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Super Nova 2",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Super Nova 2 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.82,
"edge_pp": -10.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Super Nova 2",
"market_prob_pct": 48.83,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.51,
"edge_pp": 5.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.08,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.3,
"edge_pp": 5.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Smiltene",
"market_prob_pct": 27.09,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Super Nova 2.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Super Nova 2 (48.8%).",
"Super Nova 2 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.95,
"closing_odds": 1.82,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.95,
"entry_odds": 1.82,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 1.73,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.73,
"pick_team": "Super Nova 2",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Super Nova 2",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "smiltene",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Smiltene",
"away_team_id": 4142,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4142.webp",
"away_team_name": "Smiltene",
"away_team_public_id": "0vlzT8J90oBx0o",
"away_team_slug": "smiltene",
"country_code": "LV",
"country_display_name": "Latvia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lv.svg",
"country_id": 90,
"country_name": "Latvia",
"fixture_id": 1529627,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Super Nova 2",
"home_team_id": 27565,
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"home_team_name": "Super Nova 2",
"home_team_public_id": "5Fj1cZtMMRGFk3",
"home_team_slug": "super-nova-2",
"ht.home_team_slug": "super-nova-2",
"league_country": "Latvia",
"league_country_display": "Latvia",
"league_display_name": "1. Liga Latvia",
"league_id": 364,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/364.webp",
"league_name": "1. Liga Latvia",
"league_public_id": "4Og5ddnqc9wupA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 15:00:00",
"public_id": "5do0i21Wd4PCTd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Sporta centrs Krasts"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2762,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0635,
"implied_prob": 0.2709,
"joint_probs": {
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"draw": 0.2408,
"home": 0.4883
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2855
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2752,
"best_odd": 3.69,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.2408,
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"draw": 0.2408,
"home": 0.4883
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5029,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0543,
"ev": -0.2101,
"implied_prob": 0.4883,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2709,
"draw": 0.2408,
"home": 0.4883
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
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}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": 0.0618,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.69,
"edge": 0.0249,
"ev": 0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.271,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.1691,
"ev": -0.3078,
"implied_prob": 0.5495,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
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"alpha_yes": 0.1523,
"best_no_odd": 2.48,
"best_yes_odd": 1.49,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0807,
"edge_yes": -0.0807,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1309,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0471,
"ev_yes": -0.1894,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0875,
"implied_no": 0.3753,
"implied_yes": 0.6247,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1108,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.3753,
"model_prob": 0.456,
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},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1523,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.0875,
"implied_prob": 0.6247,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6124
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.3843,
"p_final_yes": 0.6124,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1932,
"alpha_under": 0.1405,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.64,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.48,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.5,
"edge_over": -0.1529,
"edge_under": 0.1529,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1121,
"ev_under": 0.3675,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.019,
"implied_over": 0.6349,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6281,
"implied_under": 0.3651,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3719,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.6281,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5999
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.3719,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3924
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},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5999,
"p_final_under": 0.3924,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3675,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3675,
"confidence": 6.5,
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"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Super Nova 2)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3675,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Super Nova 2 at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Super Nova 2 as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Super Nova 2",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 5.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
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"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4883,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
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"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
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"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
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"max_ev_side": "draw",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Super Nova 2"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"p_final": 0.3843,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0123,
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},
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0205,
"market_prob": 0.3719,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.6281,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5999
},
"p_final": 0.3924,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.019,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.3719,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3924
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1529,
"ev": 0.3675,
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1529627,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3675,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.3753,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.3753,
"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Smiltene",
"home": "Super Nova 2"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.133255,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3675,
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4883,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1529627,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T15:00:16.273276+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Super Nova 2 & Smiltene!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
1. Liga Latvia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera FC | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Skanste | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| 10 | Tukums II | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 18 |
| 11 | Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 89 | 17 | +72 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera FC | 21 | 60 | 23 | +37 | 51 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 47 |
| 4 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 49 |
| 5 | Skanste | 21 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 26 |
| 6 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 37 |
| 7 | Mārupe | 21 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 29 |
| 8 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 34 | 62 | -28 | 15 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 21 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 16 |
| 11 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 25 |
| 12 | Tukums II | 21 | 27 | 60 | -33 | 18 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 |
