AI correctly predicted the Riga Mariners win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Riga Mariners Riga Mariners ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga Mariners | 42.9% | 83.1% | -40.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 10.3% | +18.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Tukums II | 27.9% | 6.5% | +21.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Riga Mariners's win probability at 83.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 40.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Riga Mariners win 4–2).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Riga Mariners higher (83.2% vs model 42.9%, 40.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Riga Mariners win 4–2).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Riga Mariners 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Tukums II 27.9%
- xG · Riga Mariners 1.46 — Tukums II 1.14
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Riga Mariners 1.08 · Draw 8.69 · Tukums II 13.73
- Implied 1X2 · Riga Mariners 83.1% · Draw 10.3% · Tukums II 6.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Riga Mariners 1.08 · Draw 8.69 · Tukums II 13.73
- Implied 1X2 · Riga Mariners 83.1% · Draw 10.3% · Tukums II 6.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Riga Mariners win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (40 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
1. Liga Latvia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera FC | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Skanste | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| 11 | JFK Ventspils | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| 12 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 13 | Tukums II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 89 | 17 | +72 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera FC | 21 | 60 | 23 | +37 | 51 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 47 |
| 4 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 49 |
| 5 | Skanste | 21 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 26 |
| 6 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 37 |
| 7 | Mārupe | 21 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 29 |
| 8 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 34 | 62 | -28 | 15 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 21 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 16 |
| 11 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 25 |
| 12 | Tukums II | 20 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 15 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 20 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 |
