AI correctly predicted the Riga Mariners win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Riga Mariners Riga Mariners ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skanste | 27.8% | 18.8% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 27.5% | 21.6% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Riga Mariners | 44.7% | 59.6% | -14.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Riga Mariners's win probability at 59.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.7%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Riga Mariners win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Riga Mariners than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Riga Mariners higher (59.6% vs model 44.7%, 14.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Riga Mariners win 0–2).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 18:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Skanste 27.8% · Draw 27.5% · Riga Mariners 44.7%
- xG · Skanste 1.24 — Riga Mariners 1.36
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Skanste 4.72 · Draw 4.11 · Riga Mariners 1.49
- Implied 1X2 · Skanste 18.8% · Draw 21.6% · Riga Mariners 59.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Skanste 4.72 · Draw 4.11 · Riga Mariners 1.49
- Implied 1X2 · Skanste 18.8% · Draw 21.6% · Riga Mariners 59.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 14, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Riga Mariners win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
1. Liga Latvia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera FC | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Skanste | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| 10 | Tukums II | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 18 |
| 11 | Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 89 | 17 | +72 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera FC | 21 | 60 | 23 | +37 | 51 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 47 |
| 4 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 49 |
| 5 | Skanste | 21 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 26 |
| 6 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 37 |
| 7 | Mārupe | 21 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 29 |
| 8 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 34 | 62 | -28 | 15 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 21 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 16 |
| 11 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 25 |
| 12 | Tukums II | 21 | 27 | 60 | -33 | 18 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 |
