Ya 53.2% · Tidak 46.8%
EV Ya -28.7% · EV No +25%+
Condong nilai: BTTS Tidak
Penilaian Prediksi
Berhati-hatilah
- Kegemaran
- Launceston City Kegemaran sikit
- Kebarangkalian model
- 45.8%
- Kebarangkalian pasaran
- 56.1%
- Perjanjian pasaran
- Lemah
- Pengesahan
- Amaran
Ringkasan:
Model dan pasaran bersandar pada sisi yang sama pada Launceston City, tetapi jurang harga memerlukan berhati-hati.
Log masuk untuk melihat keputusan pertaruhan penuh
Daftar percuma untuk membuka kunci keputusan pertaruhan akhir — pasaran mana lulus, di mana +EV mungkin wujud, dan amaran steam.
Audit Pasaran
- Perjanjian pasaran
- Lemah
- Pengesahan
- Amaran
- Jurang terbesar
- Launceston City -10.3 pp
- Keluasan
- 2/2
- Aktiviti pasaran semasa
- Belum ada pergerakan arah yang bermakna.
Anggaran saksama berbeza dengan ketara daripada harga pasaran semasa. Ini mungkin mencerminkan ketidaksetujuan yang tulen atau input penilaian yang tidak lengkap.
Penilaian Pasaran
Pasaran secara material lebih optimistik tentang {pasukan} daripada anggaran saksama semasa.
Walau bagaimanapun, Riverside telah menyaksikan hanyut — kemungkinan dipanjangkan dengan 0.0%, mencadangkan sokongan yang lemah.
Aktiviti pasaran kini tertumpu pada Riverside.
- Pelabur mungkin memasukkan maklumat yang tidak dicerminkan sepenuhnya dalam model garis dasar.
- Konteks khusus kejohanan boleh mengalihkan harga pasaran.
| Hasil | Adil | Pasaran | Tepi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riverside | 25.37% | 24.06% | +1.3 pp |
| Seri | 28.81% | 19.82% | +9.0 pp |
| Launceston City | 45.82% | 56.12% | -10.3 pp |
Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.
Keputusan pertaruhan akhir
Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.
- Tiada nilai pada 1X2 (Launceston City lwn. odds semasa)
- Nilai yang mungkin: Kurang 2.5 (+25%+ EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
- Nilai yang mungkin: BTTS Tidak (+25%+ EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
Sabitan sederhana (6.5/10) — satu baris terpilih, bukan parlay berbilang pasaran.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
Pilihan utama (+EV tertinggi)
Kurang 2.5
— Nilai
Launceston City · Kebarangkalian model 45.8%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 56.1%
EV garisan konsensus: -17.3%
Garis pembuat taruhan terbaik yang tersedia: -1.7% EV
Sesetengah odds outlier pembuat taruhan mungkin masih menunjukkan nilai teori kecil berbanding garisan konsensus di atas.
Paling berkemungkinan
1-1
Kebarangkalian 12.2%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Nilai peluang — Sekurang-kurangnya satu pasaran menunjukkan anggaran +EV pada kemungkinan perpuluhan terbaik semasa (ambang: 2.0%).
Kekuatan keputusan: 6.5 / 10
- Barisan utama dikenal pasti (+1.0)
- EV utama melebihi 10% (+1.0)
- Kebarangkalian maksimum 1X2 di bawah 50% (tiada 1X2 dominan) (−1.0)
- Dua atau lebih baris +EV yang sah pada ambang (+0.5)
O/U 2.5:
EV Selesai -37.3% ·
EV Di Bawah +25%+
(2 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya -28.7% · EV No +25%+
BTTS: EV Ya -28.7% · EV No +25%+
Kitaran Hayat Keputusan
Peringkat semasa: Amaran pengesahan model
- Prediksi Dijana
- Pasaran Berbanding
- Pengesahan Lulus
- Penutupan Dirakam
- CLV Dinilai
- Kemasukan
- 1.62
- Penutup
- Belum selesai
- CLV
- Belum selesai
Enjin Keputusan OddsGPT v2.2.0
Sentiasa diperhalusi menggunakan prestasi model, data pasaran dan keputusan sejarah.
Semak Odds di 1xBet
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"implied_prob": 0.5612,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"p_final": 0.509
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1731,
"best_odd": 4.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0167,
"implied_prob": 0.1982,
"model_prob": 0.288,
"p_final": 0.2138
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2941,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.2406,
"model_prob": 0.2536,
"p_final": 0.2444
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.04,
"best_yes_odd": 1.34,
"edge_no": 0.1621,
"edge_yes": -0.1621,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4227,
"ev_yes": -0.2871,
"implied_no": 0.3059,
"implied_yes": 0.6941,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.3,
"best_under_odd": 3.4,
"edge_over": -0.2408,
"edge_under": 0.2408,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3734,
"ev_under": 0.7612,
"implied_over": 0.7228,
"implied_under": 0.2772,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7612,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.532,
"draw_prob": 0.288,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.44
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0522,
"ev": -0.1729,
"implied_prob": 0.5612,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Launceston City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1621,
"ev": 0.4227,
"implied_prob": 0.3059,
"model_prob": 0.468,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2408,
"ev": 0.7612,
"implied_prob": 0.2772,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1529255,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7612,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4584,
"draw": 0.288,
"home": 0.2536
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4227,
"implied_prob": 0.3059,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.468,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4227,
"implied_prob": 0.3059,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.468,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Launceston City",
"home": "Riverside"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.24289,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7612,
"implied_prob": 0.2772,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1529255,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T06:47:57.421265+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
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