AI correctly predicted the Devonport City win.
The match finished 0–6, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Devonport City Devonport City ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-6 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launceston United | 19.2% | 7.2% | +12.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 22.3% | 8.7% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Devonport City | 58.4% | 84.1% | -25.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Devonport City's win probability at 84.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 58.4%, a difference of 25.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Devonport City win 0–6).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Devonport City higher (84.1% vs model 58.4%, 25.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Devonport City win 0–6).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Launceston United 19.2% · Draw 22.3% · Devonport City 58.5%
- xG · Launceston United 1.13 — Devonport City 1.47
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Launceston United 12.28 · Draw 10.16 · Devonport City 1.05
- Implied 1X2 · Launceston United 7.2% · Draw 8.7% · Devonport City 84.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 04:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Launceston United 12.28 · Draw 10.16 · Devonport City 1.05
- Implied 1X2 · Launceston United 7.2% · Draw 8.7% · Devonport City 84.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 04:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Devonport City win · 0–6
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Tasmania NPL — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Riverside | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 18 | 65 | 16 | +49 | 47 |
| 2 | Devonport City | 18 | 56 | 19 | +37 | 43 |
| 3 | Kingborough Lions | 18 | 51 | 16 | +35 | 43 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 18 | 40 | 36 | +4 | 31 |
| 5 | Riverside | 18 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Clarence Zebras | 18 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 27 |
| 7 | South East Utd. | 18 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 21 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights | 18 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 18 | 17 | 61 | -44 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 18 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 4 |
