The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Republik Ireland at 42.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Republik Ireland Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-1 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Republik Ireland; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Republik Ireland 1.86 — Israel 1.93
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Republik Ireland 1–1 Israel
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Republik Ireland or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Republik Ireland"
},
"away_xg": 1.93,
"betting_insight": {
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"edge": -0.0561,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
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{
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"odd": 2.03
}
],
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"label": "Home",
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"overround": 3.5,
"prob_edge": -7.2,
"value_pct": -14.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 85.5,
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"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 84.4,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.93,
"home_expected": 1.86,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 2,
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"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Republik Ireland or Draw",
"prob": 67.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Republik Ireland or Israel",
"prob": 74.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Israel",
"prob": 58.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Republik Ireland or Israel",
"pick_prob": 74.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 25.7,
"home_pct": 42.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Republik Ireland"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.79,
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"confidence": "high",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 29.0,
"implied_prob": 25.1,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Israel Win",
"model_prob": 32.4,
"odds": 3.98
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.29,
"draw": 28.1,
"home": 47.62
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 18:44:38",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 18:14:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Republik Ireland",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"gap_pp": -5.61,
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"model_pct": 42.01
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.41,
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{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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}
},
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
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"prob": 8.1
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"top5": [
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.86,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"edge": 0.0374,
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"over": {
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"edge": 0.0374,
"ev": 0.0274,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.9,
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"ev": -0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.5288,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
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"raw_pct": 52.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.5041,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -50.4,
"text": "-50.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 10623.13,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
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"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.033,
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"market_prob": 0.5142,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
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"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1374,
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
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},
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"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
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"ev": -0.0151,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4774,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -47.7,
"text": "-47.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3322,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 33.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3322,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"sort_key": 10298.98,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0803,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.0,
"text": "-8.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0513,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4201,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Republik Ireland",
"sort_key": 5241.04,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"alert_team": "Republik Ireland",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.06,
"hero_label": "Israel",
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"market_team": "Republik Ireland",
"model_prob_pct": 42.0,
"model_team": "Republik Ireland",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5257,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5257,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Republik Ireland at 42.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Republik Ireland as the value side (42.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Republik Ireland",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +52.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +52.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +52.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+52.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0803,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4201,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.07 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.07
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.06,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.93,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.86,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.93,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.86 \u00b7 Away xG 1.93 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +43%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"steam_team": "Republik Ireland",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5257,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5257,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Republik Ireland at 42.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Republik Ireland as the value side (42.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Republik Ireland",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +52.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +52.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +52.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+52.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0803,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4201,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.07 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.07
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Republik Ireland 1.86 xG vs Israel 1.93 \u2192 Republik Ireland 42.0%",
"Market: Republik Ireland ~47.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Republik Ireland odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Republik Ireland, but the market has moved away from Republik Ireland.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.64,
"fair_prob": 41.98,
"label": "Republik Ireland",
"market_prob": 47.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.43,
"fair_prob": 25.67,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.06,
"fair_prob": 32.35,
"label": "Israel",
"market_prob": 24.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 25.85,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -25.75,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.54,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.54,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.35,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Israel",
"market_prob_pct": 24.29,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Republik Ireland"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Israel\u0027s win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.3%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Republik Ireland",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.6,
"model_prob_pct": 42.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Republik Ireland 1.86 xG vs Israel 1.93 \u2192 Republik Ireland 42.0%",
"Market: Republik Ireland ~47.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Republik Ireland odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Republik Ireland, but the market has moved away from Republik Ireland.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.06,
"hero_label": "Israel",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Republik Ireland odds lengthened \u2191 +5.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Republik Ireland has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Israel.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Israel.",
"However, Republik Ireland has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Israel.",
"At the same time, Republik Ireland has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.6 pp (at 42.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.6,
"max_prob_pct": 42.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Israel",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.1,
"lead": "The model rates Israel considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.64,
"edge_pp": -5.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.98,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Republik Ireland",
"market_prob_pct": 47.62,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.43,
"edge_pp": -2.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.06,
"edge_pp": 8.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.35,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Israel",
"market_prob_pct": 24.29,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Republik Ireland (47.6%).",
"Republik Ireland odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.4%, 4/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Republik Ireland, Market \u2192 Republik Ireland, while Republik Ireland odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.13,
"closing_odds": 3.98,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.13,
"entry_odds": 3.98,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 92h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Republik Ireland (swing 2.08 \u2192 1.83 \u2192 1.95) \u2014 net 5.4% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.03",
"1.94",
"1.85"
],
"display": "2.08 \u2192 1.83 \u2192 1.95",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 92h 4m",
"pick_team": "Republik Ireland",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.08"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.85,
2.03,
1.95
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.03"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.95"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.85,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Republik Ireland",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.95,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"summary": "Market moved away from Republik Ireland while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Republik Ireland",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"pick_team": "Republik Ireland",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "Republik Ireland",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "israel",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Israel",
"away_team_id": 1116,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1116.webp",
"away_team_name": "Israel",
"away_team_public_id": "3ul7OkM8uoYXLZ",
"away_team_slug": "israel",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528943,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Republik Ireland",
"home_team_id": 776,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/776.webp",
"home_team_name": "Republik Ireland",
"home_team_public_id": "3OjXfOuNKlpkuh",
"home_team_slug": "rep-of-ireland",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rep-of-ireland",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 18:45:00",
"public_id": "18Cb5nadjtFORa",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Backa Topola",
"venue_name": "Gradski Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2637,
"best_odd": 3.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": 0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.2429,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2429,
"draw": 0.281,
"home": 0.4762
},
"model_prob": 0.3236,
"p_final": 0.2641
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2889,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.281,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2429,
"draw": 0.281,
"home": 0.4762
},
"model_prob": 0.2564,
"p_final": 0.2739
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4122,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0231,
"ev": -0.0803,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2429,
"draw": 0.281,
"home": 0.4762
},
"model_prob": 0.4201,
"p_final": 0.453
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.98,
"edge": 0.0723,
"ev": 0.2878,
"implied_prob": 0.2513,
"model_prob": 0.3236
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": -0.0343,
"ev": -0.1181,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.2564
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.0725,
"ev": -0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.4201
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1515,
"alpha_yes": 0.1515,
"best_no_odd": 1.95,
"best_yes_odd": 1.82,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2154,
"edge_yes": 0.2154,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4774,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1374,
"ev_yes": 0.3322,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0151,
"implied_no": 0.4834,
"implied_yes": 0.5166,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
"best_odd": 1.905,
"edge": -0.033,
"ev": -0.1374,
"implied_prob": 0.4858,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.4528
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.033,
"ev": -0.0151,
"implied_prob": 0.5142,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.5472
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4528,
"p_final_yes": 0.5472,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1445,
"alpha_under": 0.1449,
"best_over_odd": 2.09,
"best_under_odd": 1.83,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.8,
"edge_over": 0.2585,
"edge_under": -0.2575,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.5257,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0274,
"ev_under": -0.5041,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1154,
"implied_over": 0.4715,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4712,
"implied_under": 0.5285,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5288,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1445,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0374,
"ev": 0.0274,
"implied_prob": 0.4712,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.5086
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0374,
"ev": -0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.5288,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4914
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5086,
"p_final_under": 0.4914,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5257,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5257,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5257,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5257,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5257,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Republik Ireland at 42.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Republik Ireland as the value side (42.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Republik Ireland",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +52.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +52.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +52.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+52.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Republik Ireland, but the model still strongly favours Republik Ireland.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0803,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4201,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.07 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.07
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2564,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4201,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.07
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.2429,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3236,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
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"side_label": "Israel",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
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"side": "home",
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},
"btts": {
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"no": {
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},
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}
},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.5086,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528943,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5257,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
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"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"risk_band": "strong",
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"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Israel",
"home": "Republik Ireland"
},
"top_pick": {
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0803,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4201,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528943,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T19:26:40.164651+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Negara-Negara UEFA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Itali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Itali | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | France | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Itali | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Türkiye | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Belgium | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
