AI correctly predicted the Denmark win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Denmark Denmark ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 0-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | 30.3% | 24.4% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.6% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Denmark | 44.7% | 49.0% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Wales's win probability at 30.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.4%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Denmark win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Wales.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Denmark more conservatively (38.8% vs model 44.7%, 5.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Denmark win 0–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wales 30.3% · Draw 25.0% · Denmark 44.7%
- xG · Wales 1.82 — Denmark 1.97
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wales 3.96 · Draw 3.64 · Denmark 1.97
- Implied 1X2 · Wales 24.4% · Draw 26.6% · Denmark 49.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wales 3.96 · Draw 3.64 · Denmark 1.97
- Implied 1X2 · Wales 24.4% · Draw 26.6% · Denmark 49.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Denmark win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
70/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.96
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Denmark win · Wales 0–1 Denmark
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +153.3%",
"alert_team": "Wales",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.9,
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},
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},
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},
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"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
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"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Denmark at 44.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Denmark as the value side (44.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
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"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Denmark",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
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},
{
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"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
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},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Denmark).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0821,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4467,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.12,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 45.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.15"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.15
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.93,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.97,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 46.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.82,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.97,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.82 \u00b7 Away xG 1.97 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +46%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 153.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +153.3%",
"steam_team": "Wales",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Denmark).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Denmark)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Denmark)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Denmark at 44.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Denmark as the value side (44.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Denmark",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Denmark).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0821,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4467,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.12,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 45.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.15"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.15
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wales 1.82 xG vs Denmark 1.97 \u2192 Denmark 44.7%",
"Market: Denmark ~49.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Wales odds \u2191 +153.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Denmark with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob": 30.33,
"label": "Wales",
"market_prob": 24.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.56,
"fair_prob": 24.99,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.37,
"fair_prob": 44.68,
"label": "Denmark",
"market_prob": 49.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.2,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.1,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.67,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.53,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.67,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.47,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.33,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Wales",
"market_prob_pct": 24.4,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Wales"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Wales\u0027s win probability at 30.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.4%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Denmark",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.3,
"model_prob_pct": 44.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Denmark \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Wales 1.82 xG vs Denmark 1.97 \u2192 Denmark 44.7%",
"Market: Denmark ~49.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Wales odds \u2191 +153.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Denmark with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.93,
"hero_label": "Wales",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Wales odds lengthened \u2191 +153.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Wales.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Wales.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Wales.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Wales."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Wales.",
"Recent line movement on Wales (\u2191 +153.3%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.4 pp (at 44.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.4,
"max_prob_pct": 44.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Wales",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.9,
"lead": "The model rates Wales considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.93,
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.33,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Wales",
"market_prob_pct": 24.4,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.56,
"edge_pp": -1.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.99,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.37,
"edge_pp": -4.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.68,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Denmark",
"market_prob_pct": 49.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Wales.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Denmark (49.0%).",
"However, Wales has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +153.3%, 5/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Denmark \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.25,
"closing_odds": 3.96,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.25,
"entry_odds": 3.96,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +153.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 153.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +153.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 153.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 6m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Wales (153.3%, 5/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 153.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.96",
"2.73",
"1.50"
],
"display": "4.18 \u2192 1.50 \u2192 3.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 6m",
"pick_team": "Wales",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.18"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.5,
3.96,
3.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.96"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/9 sportsbooks on Wales",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Wales",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +153.3%",
"open_odds": 1.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Wales",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +153.3%",
"open_odds": 1.5,
"pick_team": "Wales",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Wales",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "denmark",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Denmark",
"away_team_id": 21,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21.webp",
"away_team_name": "Denmark",
"away_team_public_id": "3ykpJ9TUqQRoyV",
"away_team_slug": "denmark",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528942,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Wales",
"home_team_display_name": "Wales",
"home_team_id": 767,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/767.webp",
"home_team_name": "Wales",
"home_team_public_id": "0zLDEFda5sWAAX",
"home_team_slug": "wales",
"ht.home_team_slug": "wales",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3iZehaGGbWJpUz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Cardiff",
"venue_name": "Cardiff City Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5605,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.0821,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4905,
"draw": 0.2655,
"home": 0.244
},
"model_prob": 0.4467,
"p_final": 0.4659
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2931,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0045,
"ev": -0.0501,
"implied_prob": 0.2655,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4905,
"draw": 0.2655,
"home": 0.244
},
"model_prob": 0.2501,
"p_final": 0.261
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2734,
"best_odd": 3.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": 0.0304,
"implied_prob": 0.244,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4905,
"draw": 0.2655,
"home": 0.244
},
"model_prob": 0.3032,
"p_final": 0.2602
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": -0.0609,
"ev": -0.1201,
"implied_prob": 0.5076,
"model_prob": 0.4467
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2501
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.96,
"edge": 0.0507,
"ev": 0.2006,
"implied_prob": 0.2525,
"model_prob": 0.3032
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1655,
"alpha_yes": 0.1821,
"best_no_odd": 2.11,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1767,
"edge_yes": 0.1767,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4345,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1327,
"ev_yes": 0.2444,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0182,
"implied_no": 0.4447,
"implied_yes": 0.5553,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1655,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": -0.0292,
"ev": -0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.415
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1821,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0321,
"ev": -0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.5559,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.5879
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.415,
"p_final_yes": 0.5879,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1649,
"alpha_under": 0.1653,
"best_over_odd": 1.84,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.02,
"edge_over": 0.202,
"edge_under": -0.201,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3432,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0116,
"ev_under": -0.4309,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.115,
"implied_over": 0.528,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5288,
"implied_under": 0.472,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4712,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1649,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0332,
"ev": 0.0116,
"implied_prob": 0.5288,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.562
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": -0.0331,
"ev": -0.115,
"implied_prob": 0.4712,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4381
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.562,
"p_final_under": 0.4381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3432,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3432,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Denmark)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Denmark at 44.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Denmark as the value side (44.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Denmark",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Denmark).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0821,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4467,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.12,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 45.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.15"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.15
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2501,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4467,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.15
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0304,
"implied_prob": 0.244,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3032,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Wales",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0246,
"ev": -0.0821,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4467,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Denmark"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1821,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0321,
"market_prob": 0.5559,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1655,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": -0.0292,
"ev": -0.1327,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.415
},
"p_final": 0.5879,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0182,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1821,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0321,
"ev": -0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.5559,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.5879
}
},
"edge": 0.1767,
"ev": 0.2444,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1649,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0332,
"market_prob": 0.5288,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1649,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0332,
"ev": 0.0116,
"implied_prob": 0.5288,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.562
},
"p_final": 0.562,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0116,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1653,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": -0.0331,
"ev": -0.115,
"implied_prob": 0.4712,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4381
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.202,
"ev": 0.3432,
"implied_prob": 0.528,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528942,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3432,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4467,
"draw": 0.2501,
"home": 0.3032
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2444,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2444,
"implied_prob": 0.5553,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Denmark",
"home": "Wales"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.31317,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3432,
"implied_prob": 0.528,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0821,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4467,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5076142131979695,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.12,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528942,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T19:26:36.611452+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Negara-Negara UEFA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Itali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Itali | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | France | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 3 | Itali | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | — | — | — | 0 |
