The model missed the final outcome (Guangxi Pingguo Haliao win 2–1).
The model had projected Yanbian Longding at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Yanbian Longding Guangxi Pingguo Haliao ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guangxi Pingguo Haliao | 30.6% | 56.9% | -26.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.7% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Yanbian Longding | 39.9% | 19.4% | +20.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Guangxi Pingguo Haliao's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 26.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Guangxi Pingguo Haliao win 2–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Yanbian Longding; match finished Guangxi Pingguo Haliao
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Yanbian Longding by 26.3 percentage points (66.2% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Guangxi Pingguo Haliao 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Yanbian Longding 40.0%
- xG · Guangxi Pingguo Haliao 1.20 — Yanbian Longding 1.40
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Guangxi Pingguo Haliao 1.75 · Draw 3.80 · Yanbian Longding 4.12
- Implied 1X2 · Guangxi Pingguo Haliao 53.0% · Draw 24.4% · Yanbian Longding 22.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Guangxi Pingguo Haliao 1.63 · Draw 3.92 · Yanbian Longding 4.77
- Implied 1X2 · Guangxi Pingguo Haliao 56.9% · Draw 23.7% · Yanbian Longding 19.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Guangxi Pingguo Haliao win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
50/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.63
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Guangxi Pingguo Haliao win · Guangxi Pingguo Haliao 2–1 Yanbian Longding
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "1X",
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{
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"prob": 70.5
},
{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 11:29:27",
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"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 3.86,
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{
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{
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
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{
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.2,
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{
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"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.063,
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"text": "+6.3%"
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},
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"show_primary_label": false,
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"tier": "best"
},
{
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"edge": 0.0062,
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
"decision": "lean",
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"edge": 0.0033,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.5293,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
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},
"p_final": 0.5326,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0633,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0812,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5293,
"model_prob": 0.543,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.086,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.6,
"text": "-8.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0063,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0063,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 1798.425,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 26.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.32,
"hero_label": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"market_prob_pct": 19.4,
"market_team": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Yanbian Longding",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9065,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yanbian Longding at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yanbian Longding as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yanbian Longding",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Yanbian Longding \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +91% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528710 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +91% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20964360587002098,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9066,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+90.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 26.32,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 26.32,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9065,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yanbian Longding at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yanbian Longding as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yanbian Longding",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Yanbian Longding \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +91% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528710 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +91% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20964360587002098,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9066,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+90.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guangxi Pingguo Haliao 1.20 xG vs Yanbian Longding 1.40 \u2192 Yanbian Longding 39.9%",
"Market: Guangxi Pingguo Haliao ~19.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Yanbian Longding, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -26.32,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"market_prob": 56.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.5,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Yanbian Longding",
"market_prob": 19.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.68,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.68,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -26.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"market_prob_pct": 56.9,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Guangxi Pingguo Haliao\u0027s win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 26.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 26.32,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Yanbian Longding",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 19.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Yanbian Longding \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+20.5 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guangxi Pingguo Haliao 1.20 xG vs Yanbian Longding 1.40 \u2192 Yanbian Longding 39.9%",
"Market: Guangxi Pingguo Haliao ~19.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Yanbian Longding, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.32,
"hero_label": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +6.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 26.32,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"largest_gap_pp": -26.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Guangxi Pingguo Haliao higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 26.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -26.32,
"edge_pp": -26.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"market_prob_pct": 56.9,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.82,
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 20.5,
"edge_pp": 20.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Yanbian Longding",
"market_prob_pct": 19.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Guangxi Pingguo Haliao (19.4%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.1%, 4/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Yanbian Longding, Market \u2192 Guangxi Pingguo Haliao, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 61.35,
"closing_odds": 1.63,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 61.35,
"entry_odds": 1.63,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 41m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.80 \u2192 3.04 \u2192 3.50) \u2014 net 6.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.92",
"3.61",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.80 \u2192 3.04 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 41m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.04"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.92,
3.8,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,3.5 56.0,12.2",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 26.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "yanbian-longding",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Yanbian Longding",
"away_team_id": 17271,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17271.webp",
"away_team_name": "Yanbian Longding",
"away_team_public_id": "4QdQWX4w6Dppg3",
"away_team_slug": "yanbian-longding",
"country_code": "CN",
"country_display_name": "China",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cn.svg",
"country_id": 32,
"country_name": "China",
"fixture_id": 1528710,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "China",
"home_team_display_name": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"home_team_id": 23268,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23268.webp",
"home_team_name": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao",
"home_team_public_id": "3FnWMUh4EGYruY",
"home_team_slug": "guangxi-hengchen",
"ht.home_team_slug": "guangxi-hengchen",
"league_country": "China",
"league_country_display": "China",
"league_display_name": "Liga Satu China",
"league_id": 170,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/170.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Satu China",
"league_public_id": "0Z8NZOcuHfzq60",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 11:30:00",
"public_id": "2Nb74bJZ0yp9z4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nanning",
"venue_name": "Guangxi Sports Center"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"best_odd": 4.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1944,
"draw": 0.2366,
"home": 0.569
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.2228
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2738,
"best_odd": 3.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0101,
"implied_prob": 0.2366,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1944,
"draw": 0.2366,
"home": 0.569
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2525
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3629,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0956,
"ev": -0.2284,
"implied_prob": 0.569,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1944,
"draw": 0.2366,
"home": 0.569
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.4734
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.77,
"edge": 0.19,
"ev": 0.9065,
"implied_prob": 0.2096,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.92,
"edge": 0.0396,
"ev": 0.1554,
"implied_prob": 0.2551,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.3079,
"ev": -0.5019,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.3056
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2204,
"alpha_yes": 0.2424,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0168,
"edge_yes": 0.0168,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.086,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0927,
"ev_yes": -0.0063,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0812,
"implied_no": 0.4738,
"implied_yes": 0.5262,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4677
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5293,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5326
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4677,
"p_final_yes": 0.5326,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2265,
"alpha_under": 0.2265,
"best_over_odd": 1.95,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.88,
"edge_over": -0.0262,
"edge_under": 0.0262,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0601,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0891,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0661,
"implied_over": 0.5082,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5095,
"implied_under": 0.4918,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4905,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0062,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5033
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4967
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5033,
"p_final_under": 0.4967,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9065,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.063,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.5,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9065,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yanbian Longding at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yanbian Longding as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yanbian Longding",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Yanbian Longding \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +91% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528710 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +91% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20964360587002098,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9066,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+90.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.063,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Yanbian Longding"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.725,
"edge": 0.0033,
"market_prob": 0.5293,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4677
},
"p_final": 0.5326,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0812,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5293,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5326
}
},
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0063,
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0062,
"market_prob": 0.4905,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0062,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5033
},
"p_final": 0.4967,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0661,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4967
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": 0.036,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1528710,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.063,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3056
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Yanbian Longding",
"home": "Guangxi Pingguo Haliao"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.027699,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Yanbian Longding",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20964360587002098,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9066,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+90.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528710,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T11:29:29.110176+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Satu China — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guangzhou E-Power | 24 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 54 |
| 2 | Guangxi Pingguo Haliao | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | Shenzhen Juniors | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Nantong Zhiyun | 23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 39 |
| 5 | Yanbian Longding | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 35 |
| 6 | Shaanxi Union | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Hebei Kungfu | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 31 |
| 8 | Wuxi Wugou | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 |
| 9 | Changchun Yatai | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 29 |
| 10 | Ningbo Professional | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 11 | Dalian Huayi | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 29 |
| 12 | Suzhou Dongwu | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 26 |
| 13 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
| 14 | Nanjing City | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 21 |
| 15 | Meizhou Kejia | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | Dongguan United | 24 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guangzhou E-Power | 24 | 48 | 20 | +28 | 54 |
| 2 | Guangxi Pingguo Haliao | 24 | 40 | 26 | +14 | 45 |
| 3 | Shenzhen Juniors | 24 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 44 |
| 4 | Changchun Yatai | 23 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | Shaanxi Union | 23 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Wuxi Wugou | 23 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 29 |
| 7 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 24 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 23 |
| 8 | Yanbian Longding | 24 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 35 |
| 9 | Nantong Zhiyun | 23 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 39 |
| 10 | Dalian Huayi | 23 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 29 |
| 11 | Suzhou Dongwu | 24 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 26 |
| 12 | Ningbo Professional | 23 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 29 |
| 13 | Meizhou Kejia | 24 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 15 |
| 14 | Dongguan United | 24 | 24 | 49 | -25 | 13 |
| 15 | Hebei Kungfu | 24 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 31 |
| 16 | Nanjing City | 24 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 21 |
