The model missed the final outcome (Kaisar win 1–0).
The model had projected Atyrau at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Atyrau Kaisar ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaisar | 34.2% | 40.8% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.0% | -0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Atyrau | 36.1% | 29.2% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Atyrau's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.2%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Kaisar win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atyrau.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atyrau by 6.9 percentage points (29.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kaisar 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Atyrau 36.1%
- xG · Kaisar 1.28 — Atyrau 1.32
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kaisar 2.22 · Draw 3.02 · Atyrau 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Kaisar 40.8% · Draw 30.0% · Atyrau 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kaisar 2.22 · Draw 3.02 · Atyrau 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Kaisar 40.8% · Draw 30.0% · Atyrau 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kaisar win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
22/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.1
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Kaisar win · Kaisar 1–0 Atyrau
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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},
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{
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{
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{
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},
"home_xg": 1.28,
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{
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},
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},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"consensus_odds": 3.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.037,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2922,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.037,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.7,
"text": "-3.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1188,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Atyrau",
"sort_key": 1790.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.89,
"hero_label": "Atyrau",
"market_prob_pct": 29.2,
"market_team": "Kaisar",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Atyrau",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atyrau at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atyrau as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atyrau",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atyrau \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528094 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.037,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2922,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3225806451612903,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1188,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.89,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.89,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Kaisar",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atyrau at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atyrau as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atyrau",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atyrau \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528094 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.037,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2922,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3225806451612903,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1188,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kaisar 1.28 xG vs Atyrau 1.32 \u2192 Atyrau 36.1%",
"Market: Kaisar ~29.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Kaisar +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atyrau with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.56,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Kaisar",
"market_prob": 40.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.34,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.89,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Atyrau",
"market_prob": 29.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.09,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.09,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.23,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Atyrau",
"market_prob_pct": 29.22,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Kaisar"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Atyrau\u0027s win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.2%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atyrau",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kaisar 1.28 xG vs Atyrau 1.32 \u2192 Atyrau 36.1%",
"Market: Kaisar ~29.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Kaisar +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atyrau with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.89,
"hero_label": "Atyrau",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atyrau.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atyrau.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atyrau."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Atyrau.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Atyrau",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.9,
"lead": "The model rates Atyrau considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.56,
"edge_pp": -6.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kaisar",
"market_prob_pct": 40.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.34,
"edge_pp": -0.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.99,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.89,
"edge_pp": 6.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atyrau",
"market_prob_pct": 29.22,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atyrau.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Kaisar (29.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atyrau, Market \u2192 Kaisar, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.26,
"closing_odds": 3.1,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.26,
"entry_odds": 3.1,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/10",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Kaisar",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_team_name": "Kaisar",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "atyrau",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atyrau",
"away_team_id": 4564,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4564.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atyrau",
"away_team_public_id": "4FlQhscsuQZ8It",
"away_team_slug": "atyrau",
"country_code": "KZ",
"country_display_name": "Kazakhstan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/kz.svg",
"country_id": 84,
"country_name": "Kazakhstan",
"fixture_id": 1528094,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Kazakhstan",
"home_team_display_name": "Kaisar",
"home_team_id": 4562,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4562.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kaisar",
"home_team_public_id": "58TKXeFU029Km3",
"home_team_slug": "kaisar",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kaisar",
"league_country": "Kazakhstan",
"league_country_display": "Kazakhstan",
"league_display_name": "Liga Perdana Kazakhstan",
"league_id": 389,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/389.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Perdana Kazakhstan",
"league_public_id": "2KaZhbgHP3BiR7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 15:00:00",
"public_id": "0xWgHKGNBqefvh",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kyzylorda",
"venue_name": "Kaysar Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.269,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0185,
"ev": -0.037,
"implied_prob": 0.2922,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2922,
"draw": 0.2999,
"home": 0.408
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3107
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2986,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.2999,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2922,
"draw": 0.2999,
"home": 0.408
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2989
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4057,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1534,
"implied_prob": 0.408,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2922,
"draw": 0.2999,
"home": 0.408
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3814
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": 0.0384,
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": -0.0345,
"ev": -0.104,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.1081,
"ev": -0.2399,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2103,
"alpha_yes": 0.2103,
"best_no_odd": 1.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0423,
"edge_yes": 0.0423,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1446,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1043,
"ev_yes": 0.0192,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0708,
"implied_no": 0.4973,
"implied_yes": 0.5027,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4895
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0708,
"implied_prob": 0.5014,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5105
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4895,
"p_final_yes": 0.5105,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2214,
"alpha_under": 0.2435,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.0409,
"edge_under": -0.0409,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"ev_under": -0.1298,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0929,
"implied_over": 0.4411,
"implied_over_mf": 0.44,
"implied_under": 0.5589,
"implied_under_mf": 0.56,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2214,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4493
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2435,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0929,
"implied_prob": 0.56,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5498
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4493,
"p_final_under": 0.5498,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atyrau at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atyrau as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atyrau",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atyrau \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +12% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528094 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +12% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Kaisar, but the model still strongly favours Atyrau.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.037,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2922,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3225806451612903,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1188,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0185,
"ev": -0.037,
"implied_prob": 0.2922,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atyrau"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2103,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0092,
"market_prob": 0.5014,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.4986,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4895
},
"p_final": 0.5105,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0708,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0092,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0423,
"ev": 0.0192,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2214,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0093,
"market_prob": 0.44,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.44,
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"p_final": 0.4493
},
"p_final": 0.4493,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0102,
"ev": -0.0929,
"implied_prob": 0.56,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0409,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4411,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528094,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atyrau",
"home": "Kaisar"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.037,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2922,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3225806451612903,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1188,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528094,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:59:22.588718+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Perdana Kazakhstan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 58 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 24 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 42 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 41 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 35 |
| 7 | Zhenys | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 8 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 31 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 11 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 24 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 22 |
| 15 | Irtysh | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 20 |
| 16 | Altay | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 24 | 50 | 15 | +35 | 57 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 25 | 48 | 18 | +30 | 58 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 24 | 41 | 25 | +16 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 24 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 42 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 25 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 41 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 24 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 35 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 24 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 31 |
| 8 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 25 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 24 |
| 9 | Kaspiy | 25 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 26 |
| 10 | Zhetysu | 25 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 22 |
| 11 | Zhenys | 25 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 32 |
| 12 | Ulytau | 24 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 31 |
| 13 | Irtysh | 23 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 20 |
| 14 | Kaisar | 25 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 | Altay | 24 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 20 |
| 16 | Atyrau | 24 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 23 |
