AI correctly predicted the Brisbane City win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Brisbane City Brisbane City ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochedale Rovers | 30.3% | 28.8% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 27.1% | 20.6% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Brisbane City | 42.6% | 50.6% | -8.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Brisbane City's win probability at 50.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.6%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Brisbane City win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Brisbane City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Brisbane City higher (50.6% vs model 42.6%, 8.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Brisbane City win 2–3).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rochedale Rovers 30.3% · Draw 27.1% · Brisbane City 42.6%
- xG · Rochedale Rovers 1.20 — Brisbane City 1.40
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 06:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rochedale Rovers 3.18 · Draw 4.45 · Brisbane City 1.81
- Implied 1X2 · Rochedale Rovers 28.8% · Draw 20.6% · Brisbane City 50.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rochedale Rovers 3.18 · Draw 4.45 · Brisbane City 1.81
- Implied 1X2 · Rochedale Rovers 28.8% · Draw 20.6% · Brisbane City 50.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Brisbane City win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Queensland NPL — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 8 | Olympic FC | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 26 |
| 9 | Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 10 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 16 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 57 | 22 | +35 | 53 |
| 2 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 39 |
| 3 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 45 |
| 4 | Brisbane City | 22 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 34 |
| 5 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 38 |
| 6 | Olympic FC | 22 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 26 |
| 7 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 8 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 21 |
| 10 | Magic United | 22 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 22 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 16 |
| 12 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 20 |
