Ramalan / Bola Sepak / China. Liga Super China / Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon

Audit Ramalan: Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Dalian Zhixing Dalian Zhixing
Sep 05, 2026 - 11:35
2 1.81
1 1.72
xG Accuracy: 78%
Qingdao Jonoon Qingdao Jonoon

AI correctly predicted the Dalian Zhixing win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan A

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Dalian Zhixing Dalian Zhixing ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-1 ✔ Betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dalian Zhixing higher than the statistical model.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Dalian Zhixing -31.2 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Dalian Zhixing 39.6% 70.8% -31.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.5% 17.4% +7.1 pp Model Higher
Qingdao Jonoon 35.9% 11.7% +24.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dalian Zhixing's win probability at 70.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.6%, a difference of 31.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Dalian Zhixing win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.53) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dalian Zhixing higher (70.8% vs model 39.6%, 31.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dalian Zhixing win 2–1).

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dalian Zhixing 39.6% · Draw 24.5% · Qingdao Jonoon 35.9%
    • xG · Dalian Zhixing 1.81 — Qingdao Jonoon 1.72
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Zhixing 1.35 · Draw 5.48 · Qingdao Jonoon 8.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Zhixing 70.8% · Draw 17.4% · Qingdao Jonoon 11.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:27 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Zhixing 1.35 · Draw 5.48 · Qingdao Jonoon 8.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Zhixing 70.8% · Draw 17.4% · Qingdao Jonoon 11.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dalian Zhixing win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Cautious / Wait

Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Keputusan Sejarah Wait
Hasil Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6130506

Closing Odds 1.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dalian Zhixing win · Dalian Zhixing 2–1 Qingdao Jonoon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Model favours Dalian Zhixing; market prices Dalian Zhixing instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Dalian Zhixing 1.81 xG vs Qingdao Jonoon 1.72 → Dalian Zhixing 39.6%
  • Market: Dalian Zhixing ~70.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Wait

Hasil: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

  • Pergerakan harga: kebarangkalian tersirat dan pergerakan EV dengan kemungkinan.
  • Jurang sampel / data: liga bermaklumat rendah meluaskan jalur ramalan.
  • Keadaan dalam permainan: gol dan kad merah tidak dimodelkan di sini.
  • Varians garis skor: garis markah yang paling berkemungkinan masih merupakan hasil kebarangkalian mutlak rendah (selalunya di bawah 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang Liga Super China Perlawanan Jejak Dalian Zhixing Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak Qingdao Jonoon Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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Liga Super China Liga Super China — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Chengdu Rongcheng 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 Shanghai SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Rongcheng 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 Shanghai SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Rongcheng 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 Shanghai SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27