The model missed the final outcome (Tulevik win 6–1).
The model had projected Tartu Kalev at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Tartu Kalev Tulevik ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulevik | 33.8% | 50.2% | -16.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 20.2% | +9.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Tartu Kalev | 36.6% | 29.6% | +7.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Tulevik's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Tulevik win 6–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Tulevik than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tartu Kalev by 16.4 percentage points (53.0% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tulevik 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Tartu Kalev 36.6%
- xG · Tulevik 1.27 — Tartu Kalev 1.33
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tulevik 1.77 · Draw 4.41 · Tartu Kalev 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Tulevik 50.2% · Draw 20.2% · Tartu Kalev 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tulevik 1.77 · Draw 4.41 · Tartu Kalev 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Tulevik 50.2% · Draw 20.2% · Tartu Kalev 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tulevik win · 6–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
5/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.77
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Tulevik win · Tulevik 6–1 Tartu Kalev
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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],
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"match_winner": {
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.055,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.5,
"text": "-5.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2963,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0394,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.098,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Tartu Kalev",
"sort_key": 1790.15,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +24.0%",
"alert_team": "Tartu Kalev",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.45,
"hero_label": "Tulevik",
"market_prob_pct": 29.6,
"market_team": "Tulevik",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Tartu Kalev",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.014863999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.014863999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tartu Kalev at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tartu Kalev as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tartu Kalev",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2963,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3333333333333333,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.098,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.45,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +24.0%",
"steam_team": "Tartu Kalev",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.014863999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.014863999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tartu Kalev at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tartu Kalev as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tartu Kalev",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2963,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3333333333333333,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.098,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tulevik 1.27 xG vs Tartu Kalev 1.33 \u2192 Tartu Kalev 36.6%",
"Market: Tulevik ~29.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Tartu Kalev odds \u2191 +24.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Tartu Kalev, but the market has moved away from Tartu Kalev.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -16.45,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Tulevik",
"market_prob": 50.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.48,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.96,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Tartu Kalev",
"market_prob": 29.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.24,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 78.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.24,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 21.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.62,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 77.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.62,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 22.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -16.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Tulevik",
"market_prob_pct": 50.22,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Tartu Kalev"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Tulevik\u0027s win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 16.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tartu Kalev",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tulevik 1.27 xG vs Tartu Kalev 1.33 \u2192 Tartu Kalev 36.6%",
"Market: Tulevik ~29.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Tartu Kalev odds \u2191 +24.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Tartu Kalev, but the market has moved away from Tartu Kalev.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.45,
"hero_label": "Tulevik",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Tartu Kalev odds lengthened \u2191 +24.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Tartu Kalev has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Tulevik than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Tartu Kalev \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Tulevik than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Tartu Kalev has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Tartu Kalev \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Tulevik more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Tartu Kalev has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Tartu Kalev."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Tulevik",
"largest_gap_pp": -16.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Tulevik higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -16.45,
"edge_pp": -16.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Tulevik",
"market_prob_pct": 50.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.48,
"edge_pp": 9.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.16,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.96,
"edge_pp": 6.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tartu Kalev",
"market_prob_pct": 29.63,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Tartu Kalev \u2014 odds lengthened by 24.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Tulevik (29.6%).",
"However, Tartu Kalev has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +24.0%, 5/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Tartu Kalev, Market \u2192 Tulevik, while Tartu Kalev odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.5,
"closing_odds": 1.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.5,
"entry_odds": 1.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.4
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +24.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 24.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 24m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/6 books lengthened Tartu Kalev together (24.0% drift, score 79) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.80",
"2.50"
],
"display": "3.31 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 24m",
"pick_team": "Tartu Kalev",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.31"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.5,
3.0,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.5,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Tartu Kalev odds \u2191 +24.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Tartu Kalev",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Tartu Kalev odds \u2191 +24.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +24.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"summary": "Market moved away from Tartu Kalev while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Tartu Kalev",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +24.0%",
"open_odds": 2.5,
"pick_team": "Tartu Kalev",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_team_name": "Tartu Kalev",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tartu-kalev",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tartu Kalev",
"away_team_id": 16962,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16962.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tartu Kalev",
"away_team_public_id": "3Iw4liv7mwz4KD",
"away_team_slug": "tartu-kalev",
"country_code": "EE",
"country_display_name": "Estonia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ee.svg",
"country_id": 50,
"country_name": "Estonia",
"fixture_id": 1521698,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Estonia",
"home_team_display_name": "Tulevik",
"home_team_id": 3531,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3531.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tulevik",
"home_team_public_id": "5zo4F0toa88mvq",
"home_team_slug": "tulevik",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tulevik",
"league_country": "Estonia",
"league_country_display": "Estonia",
"league_display_name": "Esiliiga B",
"league_id": 1126,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1126.webp",
"league_name": "Esiliiga B",
"league_public_id": "0lsM7UcBife0Bl",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 11:00:00",
"public_id": "1tBpGG4fxrjHhk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2686,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.2963,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2963,
"draw": 0.2016,
"home": 0.5022
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.315
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1715,
"best_odd": 4.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0163,
"ev": -0.0394,
"implied_prob": 0.2016,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2963,
"draw": 0.2016,
"home": 0.5022
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2178
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4518,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0744,
"ev": -0.2428,
"implied_prob": 0.5022,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2963,
"draw": 0.2016,
"home": 0.5022
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4278
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.0326,
"ev": 0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.41,
"edge": 0.0697,
"ev": 0.3075,
"implied_prob": 0.2268,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.2274,
"ev": -0.4025,
"implied_prob": 0.565,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1632,
"best_no_odd": 4.08,
"best_yes_odd": 1.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2262,
"edge_yes": -0.2262,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.8564,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0161,
"ev_yes": -0.346,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1325,
"implied_no": 0.2288,
"implied_yes": 0.7712,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.2278,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.246
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1632,
"best_odd": 1.18,
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.7722,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7351
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.246,
"p_final_yes": 0.7351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1332,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.25,
"best_under_odd": 4.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.4,
"edge_over": -0.3024,
"edge_under": 0.3024,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3975,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1237,
"ev_under": 1.4864,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0326,
"implied_over": 0.7844,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7899,
"implied_under": 0.2156,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2101,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1332,
"best_odd": 1.17,
"edge": -0.041,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.7899,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7489
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.4,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": 0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.2101,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2347
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7489,
"p_final_under": 0.2347,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.4864,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.4864,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.4864,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.014863999999999999,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.014863999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tartu Kalev at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tartu Kalev as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tartu Kalev",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Tartu Kalev, but the model still strongly favours Tartu Kalev.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2963,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3333333333333333,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.098,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.2963,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Tartu Kalev"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0182,
"market_prob": 0.2278,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0161,
"implied_prob": 0.2278,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.246
},
"p_final": 0.246,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0161,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1632,
"best_odd": 1.18,
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.7722,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7351
}
},
"edge": 0.2262,
"ev": 0.8564,
"implied_prob": 0.2288,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.4,
"edge": 0.0246,
"market_prob": 0.2101,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1332,
"best_odd": 1.17,
"edge": -0.041,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.7899,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7489
},
"p_final": 0.2347,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0326,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.4,
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": 0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.2101,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2347
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3024,
"ev": 1.4864,
"implied_prob": 0.2156,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1521698,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.4864,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.8564,
"implied_prob": 0.2288,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.8564,
"implied_prob": 0.2288,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tartu Kalev",
"home": "Tulevik"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.538969,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.4864,
"implied_prob": 0.2156,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.055,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2963,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3333333333333333,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.098,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1521698,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T11:00:24.322433+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Tulevik & Tartu Kalev!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Esiliiga B — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narva U21 | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 63 |
| 2 | Levadia U19 | 30 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 56 |
| 3 | Phoenix | 30 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 54 |
| 4 | Tulevik | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | Johvi Phoenix | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 34 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 30 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | Luunja | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 47 |
| 7 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 46 |
| 8 | JK Tabasalu | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 33 |
| 9 | Tallinna Kalev II | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 26 |
| 10 | Legion | 30 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | 30 | 95 | 62 | +33 | 46 |
| 2 | Tulevik | 30 | 80 | 61 | +19 | 47 |
| 3 | Levadia U19 | 30 | 75 | 52 | +23 | 56 |
| 4 | Luunja | 30 | 74 | 63 | +11 | 47 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 30 | 72 | 58 | +14 | 47 |
| 6 | Narva U21 | 30 | 71 | 36 | +35 | 63 |
| 7 | Phoenix | 30 | 71 | 68 | +3 | 54 |
| 8 | Tallinna Kalev II | 30 | 60 | 77 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Johvi Phoenix | 19 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 34 |
| 10 | JK Tabasalu | 30 | 44 | 81 | -37 | 33 |
| 11 | Legion | 30 | 29 | 113 | -84 | 13 |
