AI correctly predicted the Fortaleza EC win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina | 28.6% | 32.0% | -3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.9% | 31.6% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Fortaleza EC | 41.4% | 36.4% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Fortaleza EC's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.4%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Fortaleza EC win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.51) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fortaleza EC more conservatively (36.3% vs model 41.4%, 5.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fortaleza EC win 1–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Londrina 28.6% · Draw 29.9% · Fortaleza EC 41.5%
- xG · Londrina 1.12 — Fortaleza EC 1.39
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 21:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Londrina 3.01 · Draw 3.05 · Fortaleza EC 2.65
- Implied 1X2 · Londrina 32.0% · Draw 31.6% · Fortaleza EC 36.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Londrina 3.01 · Draw 3.05 · Fortaleza EC 2.65
- Implied 1X2 · Londrina 32.0% · Draw 31.6% · Fortaleza EC 36.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fortaleza EC win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Fortaleza EC win · Londrina 1–2 Fortaleza EC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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},
{
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
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"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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}
],
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},
"secondary": {
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
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},
"version": "v1"
},
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{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 79,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.07,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.12,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.12 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"steam_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortaleza EC at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortaleza EC as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortaleza EC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0199,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.37735849056603776,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0987,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Londrina 1.12 xG vs Fortaleza EC 1.39 \u2192 Fortaleza EC 41.4%",
"Market: Fortaleza EC ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Fortaleza EC odds \u2191 +10.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fortaleza EC, but the market has moved away from Fortaleza EC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.39,
"fair_prob": 28.63,
"label": "Londrina",
"market_prob": 32.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.67,
"fair_prob": 29.93,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob": 41.44,
"label": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob": 36.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.94,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.94,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.75,
"fair_prob": 52.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.75,
"fair_prob": 47.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.44,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.37,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Fortaleza EC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Fortaleza EC\u0027s win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 36.4%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 41.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 79,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Londrina 1.12 xG vs Fortaleza EC 1.39 \u2192 Fortaleza EC 41.4%",
"Market: Fortaleza EC ~36.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Fortaleza EC odds \u2191 +10.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Fortaleza EC, but the market has moved away from Fortaleza EC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.07,
"hero_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Fortaleza EC odds lengthened \u2191 +10.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortaleza EC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortaleza EC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Fortaleza EC.",
"Recent line movement on Fortaleza EC (\u2191 +10.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Fortaleza EC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.5 pp (at 41.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.5,
"max_prob_pct": 41.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Fortaleza EC",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.1,
"lead": "The model rates Fortaleza EC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.39,
"edge_pp": -3.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Londrina",
"market_prob_pct": 32.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.67,
"edge_pp": -1.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.07,
"edge_pp": 5.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.44,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fortaleza EC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.37,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Fortaleza EC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fortaleza EC (36.4%).",
"Fortaleza EC odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.1%, 9/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Fortaleza EC, Market \u2192 Fortaleza EC, while Fortaleza EC odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.74,
"closing_odds": 2.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.74,
"entry_odds": 2.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Fortaleza EC (10.1%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.65",
"2.51",
"2.38"
],
"display": "2.65 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 2m",
"pick_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.65,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.65"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Fortaleza EC",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Market moved away from Fortaleza EC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Fortaleza EC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Fortaleza EC",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_team_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fortaleza-ec",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"away_team_id": 154,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/154.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fortaleza EC",
"away_team_public_id": "3KvkFHVvgDwS2g",
"away_team_slug": "fortaleza-ec",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520885,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Londrina",
"home_team_id": 148,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/148.webp",
"home_team_name": "Londrina",
"home_team_public_id": "4DndKVE5Ys61Lp",
"home_team_slug": "londrina",
"ht.home_team_slug": "londrina",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 21:30:00",
"public_id": "4gW9dbjuDXciV3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Londrina",
"venue_name": "Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4157,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": 0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.316,
"home": 0.3202
},
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"p_final": 0.3849
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2924,
"best_odd": 3.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0049,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.316,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.316,
"home": 0.3202
},
"model_prob": 0.2991,
"p_final": 0.3111
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2847,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.3202,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3637,
"draw": 0.316,
"home": 0.3202
},
"model_prob": 0.2863,
"p_final": 0.3106
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": 0.0372,
"ev": 0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.4146
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": -0.0287,
"ev": -0.0876,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.2991
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": -0.0459,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.2863
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5368,
"alpha_yes": 0.488,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0475,
"edge_yes": 0.0475,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1396,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1204,
"ev_yes": 0.044,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0315,
"implied_no": 0.5255,
"implied_yes": 0.4745,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5368,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.0252,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.525,
"model_prob": 0.478,
"p_final": 0.4998
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.488,
"best_odd": 1.945,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0315,
"implied_prob": 0.475,
"model_prob": 0.522,
"p_final": 0.498
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4998,
"p_final_yes": 0.498,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3828,
"alpha_under": 0.5264,
"best_over_odd": 2.42,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.34,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.56,
"edge_over": 0.0594,
"edge_under": -0.0594,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1108,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0111,
"ev_under": -0.1344,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1124,
"implied_over": 0.3996,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4,
"implied_under": 0.6004,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"best_odd": 2.34,
"edge": 0.0226,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4226
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5264,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0311,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5689
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4226,
"p_final_under": 0.5689,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.51,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1108,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1108,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Fortaleza EC at 41.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Fortaleza EC as the value side (41.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Fortaleza EC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 79,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Fortaleza EC, but the model still strongly favours Fortaleza EC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
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"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [],
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"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2991,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4146,
"over_prob": 0.459,
"total_xg": 2.51,
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"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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},
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},
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"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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},
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},
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},
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"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520885,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1108,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2991,
"home": 0.2863
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fortaleza EC",
"home": "Londrina"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1108,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
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"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "+2.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3637,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4146,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520885,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T21:29:12.789834+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 2 | Juventude | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 8 | Operario-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 43 |
| 11 | Goias | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 42 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceara | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avai | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 |
| 2 | CRB | 30 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 48 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 30 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 4 | Operario-PR | 30 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 30 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 30 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 30 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 42 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 52 |
| 12 | Ceara | 30 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Juventude | 30 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 53 |
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 15 | Criciuma | 30 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 50 |
| 16 | Cuiaba | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
| 17 | Goias | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 18 | Avai | 30 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 30 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 52 |
| 3 | Cuiaba | 30 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 49 |
| 5 | Avai | 30 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 30 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 48 |
| 8 | Juventude | 30 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 53 |
| 9 | Criciuma | 30 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 50 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 30 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 30 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 41 |
| 15 | Goias | 30 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operario-PR | 30 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceara | 30 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 30 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 30 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
