The model missed the final outcome (Ceara win 2–1).
The model had projected Novorizontino at 55.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Novorizontino Ceara ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 17.9% | 33.6% | -15.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 26.3% | 29.3% | -3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Novorizontino | 55.8% | 37.0% | +18.7 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Novorizontino's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 37.0%, a difference of 18.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Ceara win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Novorizontino.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.66) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Novorizontino; match finished Ceara
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Novorizontino by 18.7 percentage points (37.1% vs model 55.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ceara 17.9% · Draw 26.3% · Novorizontino 55.8%
- xG · Ceara 0.91 — Novorizontino 1.75
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ceara 2.86 · Draw 3.28 · Novorizontino 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Ceara 33.6% · Draw 29.3% · Novorizontino 37.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ceara 2.86 · Draw 3.28 · Novorizontino 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Ceara 33.6% · Draw 29.3% · Novorizontino 37.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ceara win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
6/100
Betting Confidence
43/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.6
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ceara win · Ceara 2–1 Novorizontino
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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},
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"has_data": true,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
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"edge": 18.6,
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},
"market_cards": [
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"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1202,
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
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},
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"under_prob": 50.3,
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},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0028,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.492,
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},
"p_final": 0.5055,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0704,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.075,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5055
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0652,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.5,
"text": "-6.5%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.05,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.0,
"text": "-5.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.05,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 49.2,
"sort_key": 1787.5,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 50.8
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"alert_team": "Ceara",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.74,
"hero_label": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob_pct": 37.0,
"market_team": "Novorizontino",
"model_prob_pct": 55.8,
"model_team": "Novorizontino",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.451,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Novorizontino at 55.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Novorizontino as the value side (55.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Novorizontino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Novorizontino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520881 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.84"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.84
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.74,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.74,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.75,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 30.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.91,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.75,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.91 \u00b7 Away xG 1.75 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +30%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"steam_team": "Ceara",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.451,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Novorizontino at 55.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Novorizontino as the value side (55.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Novorizontino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Novorizontino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520881 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.84"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.84
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ceara 0.91 xG vs Novorizontino 1.75 \u2192 Novorizontino 55.8%",
"Market: Novorizontino ~37.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Ceara odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Novorizontino, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.73,
"fair_prob": 17.92,
"label": "Ceara",
"market_prob": 33.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.01,
"fair_prob": 26.33,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.74,
"fair_prob": 55.75,
"label": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob": 37.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob": 49.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.86,
"fair_prob": 50.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.39,
"fair_prob": 49.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 18.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.75,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob_pct": 37.01,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Ceara"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Novorizontino\u0027s win probability at 55.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 37.0%, a difference of 18.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 18.74,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Novorizontino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.8,
"model_prob_pct": 55.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Novorizontino \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+18.8 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 6,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ceara 0.91 xG vs Novorizontino 1.75 \u2192 Novorizontino 55.8%",
"Market: Novorizontino ~37.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Ceara odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Novorizontino, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.74,
"hero_label": "Novorizontino",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ceara odds lengthened \u2191 +6.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ceara has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Novorizontino.",
"note": "Drift away from Ceara \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Novorizontino.",
"However, Ceara has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Ceara \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Novorizontino more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Ceara has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.74,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 29.4 pp (at 55.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 29.4,
"max_prob_pct": 55.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Novorizontino",
"largest_gap_pp": 18.7,
"lead": "The model rates Novorizontino considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.73,
"edge_pp": -15.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.92,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ceara",
"market_prob_pct": 33.65,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.01,
"edge_pp": -3.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.33,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 18.74,
"edge_pp": 18.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 55.75,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Novorizontino",
"market_prob_pct": 37.01,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Ceara \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Novorizontino (37.0%).",
"Ceara odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.9%, 5/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Novorizontino \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+18.8 pp)."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
"closing_odds": 2.6,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
"entry_odds": 2.6,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 38m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Ceara (6.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.86",
"2.74",
"2.62"
],
"display": "2.84 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 38m",
"pick_team": "Ceara",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.84"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
2.86,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/9 sportsbooks on Ceara",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Ceara",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ceara",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Ceara",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Ceara",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "novorizontino",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Novorizontino",
"away_team_id": 7834,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7834.webp",
"away_team_name": "Novorizontino",
"away_team_public_id": "2Bs7BSUbq4qcHu",
"away_team_slug": "novorizontino",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520881,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Ceara",
"home_team_id": 129,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/129.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ceara",
"home_team_public_id": "30p3lEHqSHZvUH",
"home_team_slug": "ceara",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ceara",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 23:30:00",
"public_id": "2D2F5UbmwHm88V",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Fortaleza",
"venue_name": "Estadio Castel\u00e3o"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3231,
"best_odd": 2.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0607,
"ev": 0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3701,
"draw": 0.2934,
"home": 0.3365
},
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"p_final": 0.4309
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2863,
"best_odd": 3.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0087,
"ev": -0.0663,
"implied_prob": 0.2934,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3701,
"draw": 0.2934,
"home": 0.3365
},
"model_prob": 0.2629,
"p_final": 0.2847
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3437,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0541,
"ev": -0.1925,
"implied_prob": 0.3365,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3701,
"draw": 0.2934,
"home": 0.3365
},
"model_prob": 0.179,
"p_final": 0.2824
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.6,
"edge": 0.1735,
"ev": 0.451,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"model_prob": 0.5581
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.28,
"edge": -0.042,
"ev": -0.1377,
"implied_prob": 0.3049,
"model_prob": 0.2629
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.1706,
"ev": -0.488,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.179
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5208,
"alpha_yes": 0.5208,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0039,
"edge_yes": 0.0039,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0652,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0851,
"ev_yes": -0.05,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.075,
"implied_no": 0.4959,
"implied_yes": 0.5041,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.4945
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5055
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4945,
"p_final_yes": 0.5055,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5055,
"alpha_under": 0.5551,
"best_over_odd": 2.22,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0576,
"edge_under": -0.0586,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1011,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0065,
"ev_under": -0.1449,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1181,
"implied_over": 0.4384,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4406,
"implied_under": 0.5616,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5594,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5055,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"p_final": 0.4686
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5551,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0313,
"ev": -0.1181,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.5281
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4686,
"p_final_under": 0.5281,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.66,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.451,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1202,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.8,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.451,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Novorizontino at 55.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Novorizontino as the value side (55.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Novorizontino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Novorizontino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520881 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Novorizontino), but pricing still diverges by 18.8 pp.",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.84"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.84
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.508,
"draw_prob": 0.2629,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5581,
"over_prob": 0.496,
"total_xg": 2.66,
"under_prob": 0.503,
"xg_diff": 0.84
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0607,
"ev": 0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Novorizontino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0028,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0028,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.4945
},
"p_final": 0.5055,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.075,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5208,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5055
}
},
"edge": 0.0039,
"ev": -0.05,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5055,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.028,
"market_prob": 0.4406,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5055,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.4406,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"p_final": 0.4686
},
"p_final": 0.4686,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0065,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5551,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0313,
"ev": -0.1181,
"implied_prob": 0.5594,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.5281
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0576,
"ev": 0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520881,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1202,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5581,
"draw": 0.2629,
"home": 0.179
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1011,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Novorizontino",
"home": "Ceara"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.067084,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1202,
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Novorizontino",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1202,
"consensus_ev_display": "+12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.6,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5581,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3846153846153846,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+45.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520881,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T23:29:11.609254+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Ceara & Novorizontino!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 2 | Juventude | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 53 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 8 | Operario-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 43 |
| 11 | Goias | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 42 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceara | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avai | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 |
| 2 | CRB | 30 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 48 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 30 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 4 | Operario-PR | 30 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 30 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 30 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 30 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 42 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 52 |
| 12 | Ceara | 30 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Juventude | 30 | 32 | 19 | +13 | 53 |
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 15 | Criciuma | 30 | 31 | 27 | +4 | 50 |
| 16 | Cuiaba | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
| 17 | Goias | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 18 | Avai | 30 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 30 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 30 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 30 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 52 |
| 3 | Cuiaba | 30 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 49 |
| 5 | Avai | 30 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 30 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 30 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 48 |
| 8 | Juventude | 30 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 53 |
| 9 | Criciuma | 30 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 50 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 30 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 30 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 41 |
| 15 | Goias | 30 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operario-PR | 30 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceara | 30 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 30 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 30 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 42 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
