The model missed the final outcome (Criciuma win 2–0).
The model had projected Cuiaba at 36.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Cuiaba Criciuma ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 27.5% | 49.4% | -22.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 35.9% | 30.1% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Cuiaba | 36.7% | 20.5% | +16.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Criciuma's win probability at 49.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.5%, a difference of 22.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Criciuma win 2–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.83, 2 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Cuiaba; match finished Criciuma
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cuiaba by 22.0 percentage points (58.7% vs model 36.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Criciuma 27.5% · Draw 35.9% · Cuiaba 36.6%
- xG · Criciuma 0.83 — Cuiaba 1.00
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Criciuma 1.94 · Draw 3.19 · Cuiaba 4.68
- Implied 1X2 · Criciuma 49.4% · Draw 30.1% · Cuiaba 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Criciuma 1.94 · Draw 3.19 · Cuiaba 4.68
- Implied 1X2 · Criciuma 49.4% · Draw 30.1% · Cuiaba 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Criciuma win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
52/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.94
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Criciuma win · Criciuma 2–0 Cuiaba
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 62.6,
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"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 64.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Cuiaba",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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},
"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"confidence": "high",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 71.8,
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"model_prob": 36.7,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Cuiaba",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 20.49,
"draw": 30.07,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-04 22:29:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-04 21:59:48",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Criciuma",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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"closing_implied_pct": 49.44,
"gap_pp": -21.95,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.07,
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"model_pct": 35.86
},
{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.49,
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},
{
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],
"movement": [
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{
"closing": 3.19,
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{
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{
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{
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}
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"movement_negligible": true,
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"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"model_prob_pct": 16.0,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 16.0
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-0",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 16.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.83,
"homepage_pick": {
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"confidence": "no_clear_edge",
"display_label": "Away Cuiaba",
"edge": 15.4,
"ev": 72.2,
"probability": 36.7
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.68,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0737,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.4,
"text": "+7.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2049,
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},
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Cuiaba",
"sort_key": 10216.33,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
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"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 27.7,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 72.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
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"ev_yes": null,
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 62.6,
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 828.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-0",
"top_prob": 16.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"alert_team": "Cuiaba",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 22.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.97,
"hero_label": "Criciuma",
"market_prob_pct": 20.5,
"market_team": "Criciuma",
"model_prob_pct": 36.7,
"model_team": "Cuiaba",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cuiaba), but pricing still diverges by 22.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cuiaba), but pricing still diverges by 22.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0737,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7152,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cuiaba at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cuiaba as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuiaba",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cuiaba \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +72% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520853 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cuiaba), but pricing still diverges by 22.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +72% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0737,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 4.68,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2049,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2136752136752137,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -25.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (22 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 63,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.97,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.0,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -26.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.83,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.0,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.83 \u00b7 Away xG 1.00 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -26%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"steam_team": "Cuiaba",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Cuiaba), but pricing still diverges by 22.0 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cuiaba), but pricing still diverges by 22.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cuiaba), but pricing still diverges by 22.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0737,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7152,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cuiaba at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cuiaba as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuiaba",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cuiaba \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +72% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520853 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cuiaba), but pricing still diverges by 22.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +72% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0737,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 4.68,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2049,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2136752136752137,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -25.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Criciuma 0.83 xG vs Cuiaba 1.00 \u2192 Cuiaba 36.7%",
"Market: Criciuma ~20.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Cuiaba \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Cuiaba, but market pricing diverges by 22 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -21.97,
"fair_prob": 27.47,
"label": "Criciuma",
"market_prob": 49.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.78,
"fair_prob": 35.85,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.19,
"fair_prob": 36.68,
"label": "Cuiaba",
"market_prob": 20.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 27.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 72.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -21.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.47,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Criciuma",
"market_prob_pct": 49.44,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Cuiaba"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Criciuma\u0027s win probability at 49.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 27.5%, a difference of 22.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 21.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cuiaba",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.2,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 63,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Cuiaba \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+16.2 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Criciuma 0.83 xG vs Cuiaba 1.00 \u2192 Cuiaba 36.7%",
"Market: Criciuma ~20.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Cuiaba \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Cuiaba, but market pricing diverges by 22 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -21.97,
"hero_label": "Criciuma",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Cuiaba odds shortened \u2193 -10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Criciuma",
"largest_gap_pp": -22.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Criciuma higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 22.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -21.97,
"edge_pp": -21.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.47,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Criciuma",
"market_prob_pct": 49.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.78,
"edge_pp": 5.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.07,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 16.19,
"edge_pp": 16.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.68,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cuiaba",
"market_prob_pct": 20.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Criciuma (20.5%).",
"However, Cuiaba has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.0%, 11/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cuiaba, Market \u2192 Criciuma, Recent sharp money \u2192 Cuiaba.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.55,
"closing_odds": 1.94,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.55,
"entry_odds": 1.94,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 36m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Cuiaba (10.0%, 11/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.75",
"4.50"
],
"display": "5.17 \u2192 3.76 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 97h 36m",
"pick_team": "Cuiaba",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.17"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
4.68,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,11.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Cuiaba \u2193 -10.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Cuiaba",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Cuiaba \u2193 -10.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Cuiaba",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Cuiaba",
"steam_score": 63,
"steam_team_name": "Cuiaba",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 22.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cuiaba",
"away_team_id": 1193,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1193.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cuiaba",
"away_team_public_id": "42CN7hhTtLyg2w",
"away_team_slug": "cuiaba",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520853,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Criciuma",
"home_team_id": 140,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/140.webp",
"home_team_name": "Criciuma",
"home_team_public_id": "2p24MEiNxfwdhD",
"home_team_slug": "criciuma",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-04 22:30:00",
"public_id": "4tWV9JmrdIlODV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Chrissyuma",
"venue_name": "Estadio Heriberto H\u00fclse"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1515,
"best_odd": 4.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": 0.0737,
"implied_prob": 0.2049,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2049,
"draw": 0.3007,
"home": 0.4944
},
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"p_final": 0.2294
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2739,
"best_odd": 3.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": 0.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.3007,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2049,
"draw": 0.3007,
"home": 0.4944
},
"model_prob": 0.3586,
"p_final": 0.3165
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4024,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0883,
"ev": -0.2123,
"implied_prob": 0.4944,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2049,
"draw": 0.3007,
"home": 0.4944
},
"model_prob": 0.2749,
"p_final": 0.4061
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.68,
"edge": 0.1528,
"ev": 0.7152,
"implied_prob": 0.2137,
"model_prob": 0.3665
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.19,
"edge": 0.0451,
"ev": 0.144,
"implied_prob": 0.3135,
"model_prob": 0.3586
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.2406,
"ev": -0.4667,
"implied_prob": 0.5155,
"model_prob": 0.2749
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.83,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0737,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7152,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0737,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.8,
"score_before_guard": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Cuiaba), but pricing still diverges by 22.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0737,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7152,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cuiaba at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cuiaba as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuiaba",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cuiaba \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +72% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520853 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "63 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Cuiaba), but pricing still diverges by 22.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +72% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 63,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0737,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 4.68,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2049,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2136752136752137,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -25.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.374,
"draw_prob": 0.3586,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3665,
"over_prob": 0.277,
"total_xg": 1.83,
"under_prob": 0.723,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.68,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": 0.0737,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2049,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cuiaba"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.626,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.723,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1520853,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0737,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3665,
"draw": 0.3586,
"home": 0.2749
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cuiaba",
"home": "Criciuma"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020258,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0737,
"implied_prob": 0.2049,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cuiaba",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0737,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 4.68,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2049,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3665,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2136752136752137,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7152,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520853,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-04T22:29:05.759766+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 51 |
| 4 | Juventude | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 6 | Operario-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 7 | Criciuma | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 47 |
| 8 | CRB | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 45 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 11 | Goias | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceara | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avai | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 30 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 3 | Operario-PR | 30 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 |
| 4 | CRB | 29 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 45 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 30 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 30 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 29 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 51 |
| 12 | Ceara | 30 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 14 | Juventude | 29 | 31 | 19 | +12 | 50 |
| 15 | Cuiaba | 29 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 43 |
| 16 | Goias | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 17 | Avai | 29 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 30 |
| 18 | Criciuma | 29 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 47 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 29 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 51 |
| 3 | Cuiaba | 29 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 49 |
| 5 | Avai | 29 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 30 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 29 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 45 |
| 8 | Juventude | 29 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 50 |
| 9 | Criciuma | 29 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 47 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 30 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 30 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 41 |
| 15 | Goias | 30 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operario-PR | 30 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceara | 30 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 29 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 29 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 41 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
