The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Vila Nova at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Vila Nova Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR | 26.8% | 39.4% | -12.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.8% | 31.7% | -1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Vila Nova | 43.4% | 28.9% | +14.5 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Vila Nova's win probability at 43.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.9%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vila Nova.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Vila Nova; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Vila Nova by 14.5 percentage points (28.9% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Operario-PR 26.7% · Draw 29.8% · Vila Nova 43.5%
- xG · Operario-PR 1.07 — Vila Nova 1.42
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Operario-PR 2.20 · Draw 3.09 · Vila Nova 3.84
- Implied 1X2 · Operario-PR 43.8% · Draw 31.2% · Vila Nova 25.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Operario-PR 2.44 · Draw 3.04 · Vila Nova 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · Operario-PR 39.4% · Draw 31.7% · Vila Nova 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
9/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.33
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Operario-PR 0–0 Vila Nova
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"api_prediction": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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}
},
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"no_prob": 48.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 51.5,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
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"scores": [
{
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 11.8
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Operario-PR or Vila Nova",
"prob": 70.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Vila Nova",
"prob": 73.2
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Vila Nova",
"pick_prob": 73.2
},
"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 26.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Vila Nova"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.49,
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"confidence": "low",
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"over_prob": 45.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"total_expected": 2.49,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Vila Nova Win",
"model_prob": 43.5,
"odds": 3.33
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.9,
"draw": 31.66,
"home": 39.44
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-23 20:59:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-23 20:29:32",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Operario-PR",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 4.32,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"gap_pp": -12.72,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.9,
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},
{
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{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
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"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"has_edge": false,
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"market_prob": 0.1587,
"market_prob_pct": 15.9,
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"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
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"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.07,
"homepage_pick": {
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"best_odds": 4.09,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Away Vila Nova",
"edge": 19.0,
"ev": 77.8,
"probability": 43.4
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.076,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 7.6,
"text": "+7.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.076,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "+7.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4345,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Vila Nova",
"sort_key": 10218.4,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 45.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 54.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 48.5,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 51.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "12/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "12/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"alert_team": "Operario-PR",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.49,
"hero_label": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"market_team": "Operario-PR",
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"model_team": "Vila Nova",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4469,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 43.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (43.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520836 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.076,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4345,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3003003003003003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.35
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "12/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.49,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.07,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.07 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"steam_team": "Operario-PR",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4469,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 43.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (43.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520836 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.076,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4345,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3003003003003003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.35
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Operario-PR 1.07 xG vs Vila Nova 1.42 \u2192 Vila Nova 43.4%",
"Market: Operario-PR ~28.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Operario-PR odds \u2191 +7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vila Nova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.67,
"fair_prob": 26.77,
"label": "Operario-PR",
"market_prob": 39.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.82,
"fair_prob": 29.84,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.49,
"fair_prob": 43.39,
"label": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob": 28.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 14.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.39,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Operario-PR"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Vila Nova\u0027s win probability at 43.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.9%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 14.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Vila Nova",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_prob_pct": 43.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Vila Nova \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Operario-PR 1.07 xG vs Vila Nova 1.42 \u2192 Vila Nova 43.4%",
"Market: Operario-PR ~28.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Operario-PR odds \u2191 +7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Vila Nova with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 14.49,
"hero_label": "Vila Nova",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Operario-PR odds lengthened \u2191 +7.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Operario-PR has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vila Nova.",
"note": "Drift away from Operario-PR \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Vila Nova.",
"However, Operario-PR has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Operario-PR \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Vila Nova more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Operario-PR has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/14) supports the current market view on Operario-PR."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.6 pp (at 43.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.6,
"max_prob_pct": 43.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Vila Nova",
"largest_gap_pp": 14.5,
"lead": "The model rates Vila Nova considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.67,
"edge_pp": -12.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Operario-PR",
"market_prob_pct": 39.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.82,
"edge_pp": -1.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.49,
"edge_pp": 14.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Vila Nova",
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Operario-PR \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Operario-PR (28.9%).",
"However, Operario-PR has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +7.5%, 12/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Vila Nova, Market \u2192 Operario-PR, while Operario-PR odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.03,
"closing_odds": 3.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.03,
"entry_odds": 3.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 12,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 71h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Operario-PR (7.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.44",
"2.22",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.25 \u2192 1.87 \u2192 2.15",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 71h 58m",
"pick_team": "Operario-PR",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.87"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.44,
2.2,
2.15
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,9.8 56.0,11.9",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.44"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 12/14 sportsbooks on Operario-PR",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Operario-PR",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Operario-PR",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/14",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Operario-PR",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_team_name": "Operario-PR",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Vila Nova",
"away_team_id": 142,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/142.webp",
"away_team_name": "Vila Nova",
"away_team_public_id": "3GqFSytKY8QAdc",
"away_team_slug": "vila-nova",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520836,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Operario-PR",
"home_team_id": 1223,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1223.webp",
"home_team_name": "Operario-PR",
"home_team_public_id": "25TsrQ2KEkW5f0",
"home_team_slug": "operario-pr",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_public_id": "2LSvtRZWAbkOzE",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-23 21:00:00",
"public_id": "4UinETZLGgW3BE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ponta Grossa",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2345,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0341,
"ev": 0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.289,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.3944
},
"model_prob": 0.4345,
"p_final": 0.3231
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2918,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.3166,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.289,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.3944
},
"model_prob": 0.2983,
"p_final": 0.3112
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3641,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0463,
"ev": -0.1506,
"implied_prob": 0.3944,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.289,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.3944
},
"model_prob": 0.2672,
"p_final": 0.3481
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": 0.1342,
"ev": 0.4469,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.4345
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": -0.0306,
"ev": -0.0931,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.2983
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": -0.1426,
"ev": -0.348,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.2672
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.49,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4469,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.076,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4469,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Vila Nova at 43.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Vila Nova as the value side (43.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Vila Nova",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Vila Nova \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520836 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +7.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Vila Nova).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.076,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4345,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3003003003003003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.35
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.515,
"draw_prob": 0.2983,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4345,
"over_prob": 0.454,
"total_xg": 2.49,
"under_prob": 0.546,
"xg_diff": 0.35
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0341,
"ev": 0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4345,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Vila Nova"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.515,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.546,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1520836,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.076,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4345,
"draw": 0.2983,
"home": 0.2672
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Vila Nova",
"home": "Operario-PR"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.036324,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4345,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Vila Nova",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.076,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.33,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.289,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4345,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3003003003003003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520836,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-23T20:59:14.135668+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Operario-PR & Vila Nova!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 51 |
| 4 | Juventude | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 6 | Operario-PR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 7 | Criciuma | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 47 |
| 8 | CRB | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 45 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 11 | Goias | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 15 | Ceara | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avai | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 51 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 30 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
| 3 | Operario-PR | 30 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 48 |
| 4 | CRB | 29 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 45 |
| 5 | São Bernardo | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 42 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 30 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 30 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 8 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 49 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 29 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 51 |
| 12 | Ceara | 30 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 14 | Juventude | 29 | 31 | 19 | +12 | 50 |
| 15 | Cuiaba | 29 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 43 |
| 16 | Goias | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 42 |
| 17 | Avai | 29 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 30 |
| 18 | Criciuma | 29 | 28 | 27 | +1 | 47 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 29 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 30 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 51 |
| 3 | Cuiaba | 29 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 30 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 49 |
| 5 | Avai | 29 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 30 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 29 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 45 |
| 8 | Juventude | 29 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 50 |
| 9 | Criciuma | 29 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 47 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 30 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 30 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 30 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 42 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 30 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 41 |
| 15 | Goias | 30 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operario-PR | 30 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 17 | Ceara | 30 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 36 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 29 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 29 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 41 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
