The model missed the final outcome (Atletico Goianiense win 0–1).
The model had projected Cuiaba at 61.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Cuiaba Atletico Goianiense ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 0-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 61.9% | 44.5% | +17.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 22.7% | 32.4% | -9.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Atletico Goianiense | 15.4% | 23.1% | -7.7 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Cuiaba's win probability at 61.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 44.5%, a difference of 17.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Atletico Goianiense win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cuiaba.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cuiaba by 17.4 percentage points (44.5% vs model 61.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cuiaba 61.8% · Draw 22.8% · Atletico Goianiense 15.4%
- xG · Cuiaba 2.09 — Atletico Goianiense 0.97
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cuiaba 2.16 · Draw 2.97 · Atletico Goianiense 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Cuiaba 44.5% · Draw 32.4% · Atletico Goianiense 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Cuiaba 2.16 · Draw 2.97 · Atletico Goianiense 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Cuiaba 44.5% · Draw 32.4% · Atletico Goianiense 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 23, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atletico Goianiense win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
48/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (55%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
13/100
Betting Confidence
38/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.16
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Atletico Goianiense win · Cuiaba 0–1 Atletico Goianiense
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "eb293002ae68ccad8be2de0e002c039b4e458578bf6c4ce3b1e02f88b8044e39",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.97,
"away_win_prob": 0.1537,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.444,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.557,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2272,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 6.51,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.62,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.09,
"home_win_prob": 0.6191,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.59,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.41
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Cuiab\u00e1",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense"
},
"away_xg": 0.97,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"confidence": 61.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Cuiab\u00e1",
"edge": 0.1733,
"edge_gap": 0.3907,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4451,
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 15.4,
"draw": 22.8,
"home": 61.8
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Cuiab\u00e1"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.16
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.16,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Cuiab\u00e1 Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.25,
"market_odds": 2.16,
"model_odds": 1.62,
"overround": 4.0,
"prob_edge": 15.4,
"value_pct": 33.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 18,
"away_score_rate": 62.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 18,
"home_score_rate": 87.6,
"no_prob": 44.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 55.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 55.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.97,
"home_expected": 2.09,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Cuiab\u00e1 or Draw",
"prob": 84.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Cuiab\u00e1 or Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"prob": 77.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"prob": 38.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Cuiab\u00e1 or Draw",
"pick_prob": 84.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 15.4,
"draw_pct": 22.7,
"home_pct": 61.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Cuiab\u00e1"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.06,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 59.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.06,
"under_prob": 41.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 33.7,
"implied_prob": 46.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Cuiab\u00e1 Win",
"model_prob": 61.9,
"odds": 2.16
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.11,
"draw": 32.37,
"home": 44.51
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-23 23:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-23 22:59:12",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.51,
"gap_pp": 17.33,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 61.84
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.37,
"gap_pp": -9.6,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.11,
"gap_pp": -7.72,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 15.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.72,
"gap_pp": 25.28,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 59.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.28,
"gap_pp": -25.28,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 41.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.16,
"early": 2.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.51,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.97,
"early": 2.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.37,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.16,
"early": 4.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.11,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.85,
"early": 2.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.72,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.45,
"early": 1.45,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.28,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 25.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.2
}
},
"home_xg": 2.09,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 2.15,
"confidence": "strong",
"display_label": "Home Cuiab\u00e1",
"edge": 15.3,
"ev": 32.7,
"probability": 61.8
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0861,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.6,
"text": "+8.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0861,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.6,
"text": "+8.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3357,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"sort_key": 10227.49,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 59.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 41.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 44.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 55.6
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 10.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"alert_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.4,
"hero_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"market_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"model_prob_pct": 61.9,
"model_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3358,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Cuiab\u00e1 at 61.8% vs market 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Cuiab\u00e1 as the stronger side (61.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cuiab\u00e1 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520784 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3357,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 54.8,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (55%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.4,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.97,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 55.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.09,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.09,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.09 \u00b7 Away xG 0.97 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +55%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"steam_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3358,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Cuiab\u00e1 at 61.8% vs market 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Cuiab\u00e1 as the stronger side (61.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cuiab\u00e1 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520784 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3357,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 54.8,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cuiab\u00e1 2.09 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense 0.97 \u2192 Cuiab\u00e1 61.9%",
"Market: Cuiab\u00e1 ~44.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Cuiab\u00e1 odds \u2191 +7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cuiab\u00e1, but the market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.4,
"fair_prob": 61.91,
"label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"market_prob": 44.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.65,
"fair_prob": 22.72,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.74,
"fair_prob": 15.37,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"market_prob": 23.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 59.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 41.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 55.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 44.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 17.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 61.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 44.51,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Cuiab\u00e1"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Cuiab\u00e1\u0027s win probability at 61.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 44.5%, a difference of 17.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 17.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.4,
"model_prob_pct": 61.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cuiab\u00e1 2.09 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense 0.97 \u2192 Cuiab\u00e1 61.9%",
"Market: Cuiab\u00e1 ~44.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Cuiab\u00e1 odds \u2191 +7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cuiab\u00e1, but the market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.4,
"hero_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Cuiab\u00e1 odds lengthened \u2191 +7.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cuiab\u00e1.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Cuiab\u00e1.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Cuiab\u00e1.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Cuiab\u00e1."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Cuiab\u00e1 more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Cuiab\u00e1 (\u2191 +7.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on Cuiab\u00e1."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 39.2 pp (at 61.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 39.2,
"max_prob_pct": 61.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"largest_gap_pp": 17.4,
"lead": "The model rates Cuiab\u00e1 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 17.4,
"edge_pp": 17.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 61.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 44.51,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.65,
"edge_pp": -9.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.72,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.37,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -7.74,
"edge_pp": -7.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"market_prob_pct": 23.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Cuiab\u00e1.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cuiab\u00e1 (44.5%).",
"However, Cuiab\u00e1 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +7.7%, 11/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cuiab\u00e1, Market \u2192 Cuiab\u00e1, while Cuiab\u00e1 odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.3,
"closing_odds": 2.16,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.3,
"entry_odds": 2.16,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Cuiab\u00e1 (7.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.16",
"2.06",
"1.95"
],
"display": "2.15 \u2192 1.93 \u2192 2.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 50m",
"pick_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.93"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.95,
2.16,
2.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.16"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.95,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 11/13 sportsbooks on Cuiab\u00e1",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"summary": "Market moved away from Cuiab\u00e1 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"away_team_id": 144,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/144.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Atletico Goianiense",
"away_team_slug": "atletico-goianiense",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520784,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"home_team_id": 1193,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1193.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Cuiaba",
"home_team_slug": "cuiaba",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie B",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Campeonato Brasileiro S\u00e9rie B",
"league_name_canonical": "Serie B Brazil",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-23 23:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Arena Pantanal"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1768,
"best_odd": 4.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0137,
"ev": -0.0953,
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2311,
"draw": 0.3237,
"home": 0.4451
},
"model_prob": 0.1539,
"p_final": 0.2175
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3852,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.037,
"ev": -0.1484,
"implied_prob": 0.3237,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2311,
"draw": 0.3237,
"home": 0.4451
},
"model_prob": 0.2277,
"p_final": 0.2867
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.333,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0577,
"ev": 0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2311,
"draw": 0.3237,
"home": 0.4451
},
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.16,
"edge": -0.0865,
"ev": -0.3598,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"model_prob": 0.1539
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": -0.109,
"ev": -0.3238,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.2277
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.1555,
"ev": 0.3358,
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"model_prob": 0.6184
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3358,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0861,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3358,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Cuiab\u00e1 at 61.8% vs market 44.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Cuiab\u00e1 as the stronger side (61.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Cuiab\u00e1 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.16 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1520784 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.16 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Cuiab\u00e1, but the model still strongly favours Cuiab\u00e1.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3357,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 54.8,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 55%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.556,
"draw_prob": 0.2277,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6184,
"over_prob": 0.59,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"under_prob": 0.41,
"xg_diff": 1.12
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0577,
"ev": 0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cuiab\u00e1"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.556,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520784,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0861,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1539,
"draw": 0.2277,
"home": 0.6184
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atl\u00e9tico Goianiense",
"home": "Cuiab\u00e1"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.063893,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0861,
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cuiab\u00e1",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0861,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.4451,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6184,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3357,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520784,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-23T23:29:07.179857+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Cuiaba & Atletico Goianiense!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 51 |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 50 |
| 4 | Juventude | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 46 |
| 7 | CRB | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Operario-PR | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 29 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 44 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 11 | Goias | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 42 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 41 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 38 |
| 15 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 17 | Avai | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 30 |
| 18 | Londrina | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 29 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 50 |
| 2 | CRB | 29 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 45 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 29 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 51 |
| 4 | São Bernardo | 29 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 41 |
| 5 | Sport Recife | 29 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 44 |
| 6 | Operario-PR | 28 | 39 | 36 | +3 | 44 |
| 7 | Londrina | 29 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 28 |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 29 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 46 |
| 9 | Nautico Recife | 29 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 29 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 33 | 24 | +9 | 51 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 32 |
| 13 | Juventude | 29 | 31 | 19 | +12 | 50 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Cuiaba | 29 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 43 |
| 16 | Goias | 29 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 42 |
| 17 | Avai | 29 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 30 |
| 18 | Criciuma | 28 | 28 | 25 | +3 | 47 |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 29 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 17 | 62 | -45 | 13 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 29 | 17.2 | 9.2 | +8.0 | 50 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 29 | 16.8 | 10.1 | +6.7 | 51 |
| 3 | Cuiaba | 29 | 12.3 | 7.0 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 4 | Atletico Goianiense | 29 | 15.2 | 11.1 | +4.1 | 46 |
| 5 | Avai | 29 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 30 |
| 6 | Vila Nova | 29 | 13.3 | 10.1 | +3.2 | 51 |
| 7 | CRB | 29 | 18.6 | 15.8 | +2.8 | 45 |
| 8 | Juventude | 29 | 10.2 | 8.0 | +2.2 | 50 |
| 9 | Criciuma | 28 | 10.0 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 47 |
| 10 | Sport Recife | 29 | 13.7 | 12.6 | +1.1 | 44 |
| 11 | Londrina | 29 | 10.4 | 9.6 | +0.8 | 28 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 29 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 41 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 29 | 13.7 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 29 | 15.3 | 16.1 | -0.8 | 38 |
| 15 | Goias | 29 | 11.8 | 13.1 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 16 | Operario-PR | 28 | 12.8 | 16.2 | -3.4 | 44 |
| 17 | Ceara | 29 | 9.1 | 14.2 | -5.1 | 35 |
| 18 | América Mineiro | 29 | 11.7 | 16.9 | -5.2 | 17 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 29 | 11.9 | 19.2 | -7.3 | 41 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 29 | 8.7 | 24.8 | -16.1 | 13 |
