Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Brazil. Serie B Brazil / Ponte Preta vs Goias

Audit Ramalan: Ponte Preta vs Goias Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
Jul 18, 2026 - 19:00
1 2.16
2 1.13
xG Accuracy: 57%
Goias Goias

The model missed the final outcome (Goias win 1–2).

The model had projected Ponte Preta at 50.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan C

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Ponte Preta Goias ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-2 ✖ tak betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Ponte Preta considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Ponte Preta +33.9 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Ponte Preta 50.9% 16.9% +33.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.2% 27.4% -2.1 pp Aligned
Goias 23.9% 55.7% -31.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Ponte Preta's win probability at 50.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 16.9%, a difference of 33.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Goias win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.29) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Ponte Preta; match finished Goias
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ponte Preta by 33.9 percentage points (17.0% vs model 50.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 21:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ponte Preta 50.8% · Draw 25.2% · Goias 23.9%
    • xG · Ponte Preta 2.16 — Goias 1.13
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ponte Preta 5.66 · Draw 3.50 · Goias 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Ponte Preta 16.9% · Draw 27.4% · Goias 55.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ponte Preta 5.66 · Draw 3.50 · Goias 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Ponte Preta 16.9% · Draw 27.4% · Goias 55.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Goias win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Cautious / Wait

Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Keputusan Sejarah Wait
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 26/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (60%+)
Bukti ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1824215

Closing Odds 5.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Goias win · Ponte Preta 1–2 Goias
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Model favours Ponte Preta; market prices Goias instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Ponte Preta 2.16 xG vs Goias 1.13 → Ponte Preta 50.9%
  • Market: Goias ~16.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Wait

Hasil: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

  • Pergerakan harga: kebarangkalian tersirat dan pergerakan EV dengan kemungkinan.
  • Jurang sampel / data: liga bermaklumat rendah meluaskan jalur ramalan.
  • Keadaan dalam permainan: gol dan kad merah tidak dimodelkan di sini.
  • Varians garis skor: garis markah yang paling berkemungkinan masih merupakan hasil kebarangkalian mutlak rendah (selalunya di bawah 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang Serie B Brazil Perlawanan Jejak Ponte Preta Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak Goias Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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Langgan Sekarang
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Serie B Brazil Serie B Brazil — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
2 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 51
3 Fortaleza EC 29 14 9 6 51
4 Juventude 29 14 8 7 50
5 Atletico Goianiense 30 13 10 7 49
6 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 48
7 Criciuma 29 13 8 8 47
8 CRB 29 13 6 10 45
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 44
10 Cuiaba 29 10 13 6 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 42
12 São Bernardo 30 11 9 10 42
13 Nautico Recife 30 11 8 11 41
14 Athletic Club 29 10 11 8 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 29 8 6 15 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 28
19 América Mineiro 29 4 5 20 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Novorizontino 30 49 27 +22 51
2 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
3 Operario-PR 30 43 38 +5 48
4 CRB 29 42 41 +1 45
5 São Bernardo 30 40 31 +9 42
6 Sport Recife 30 40 32 +8 44
7 Londrina 30 39 43 -4 28
8 Nautico Recife 30 38 37 +1 41
9 Atletico Goianiense 30 37 27 +10 49
10 Athletic Club 29 34 31 +3 41
11 Fortaleza EC 29 33 24 +9 51
12 Ceara 30 33 39 -6 36
13 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
14 Juventude 29 31 19 +12 50
15 Cuiaba 29 30 22 +8 43
16 Goias 30 30 36 -6 42
17 Avai 29 30 38 -8 30
18 Criciuma 29 28 27 +1 47
19 América Mineiro 29 21 49 -28 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Novorizontino 30 17.2 9.2 +8.0 51
2 Fortaleza EC 29 16.8 10.1 +6.7 51
3 Cuiaba 29 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 30 15.2 11.1 +4.1 49
5 Avai 29 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 29 18.6 15.8 +2.8 45
8 Juventude 29 10.2 8.0 +2.2 50
9 Criciuma 29 10.0 8.1 +1.9 47
10 Sport Recife 30 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 30 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 30 12.6 12.6 0.0 42
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 30 15.3 16.1 -0.8 41
15 Goias 30 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 30 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 30 9.1 14.2 -5.1 36
18 América Mineiro 29 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 29 11.9 19.2 -7.3 41
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil Brazil. Serie B Brazil Ramalan