Audit Ramalan: Botafogo SP vs CRB Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

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        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
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            {
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            {
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            "tier": "moderate",
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          "tier": "wait"
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        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Botafogo SP 2.68 xG vs CRB 1.15 \u2192 Botafogo SP 68.9%",
            "Market: Botafogo SP ~41.1% implied",
            "Steam: CRB \u2191 +23.6%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model leans Botafogo SP, but market pricing diverges by 28 pp.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
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          "edge_pp": 27.82,
          "fair_prob": 68.94,
          "label": "Botafogo SP",
          "market_prob": 41.12,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -13.33,
          "fair_prob": 17.91,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 31.24,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -14.5,
          "fair_prob": 13.15,
          "label": "CRB",
          "market_prob": 27.65,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 73.6,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 26.4,
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          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 64.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 35.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
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        "fair_prob_pct": 68.94,
        "hero_side": "home",
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        "market_prob_pct": 41.12,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
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      },
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      "fair_vs_market": {
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          "suppress_value_language": true
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        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Botafogo SP",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 41.1,
          "model_prob_pct": 68.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Botafogo SP, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
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              "label": "Execution Confidence",
              "score": 30,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
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            "model_value": {
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              "score": 50,
              "tier": "moderate",
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            },
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              "action": "wait",
              "label": "Wait"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Botafogo SP 2.68 xG vs CRB 1.15 \u2192 Botafogo SP 68.9%",
              "Market: Botafogo SP ~41.1% implied",
              "Steam: CRB \u2191 +23.6%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model leans Botafogo SP, but market pricing diverges by 28 pp.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 27.82,
        "hero_label": "Botafogo SP",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "CRB odds lengthened \u2191 +23.6%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "max_gap_pp": 27.82,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 51.0 pp (at 68.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 51.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 68.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 27.82,
            "fair_prob_pct": 68.94,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Botafogo SP",
            "market_prob_pct": 41.12,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -13.33,
            "fair_prob_pct": 17.91,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.24,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -14.5,
            "fair_prob_pct": 13.15,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "CRB",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.65,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Botafogo SP (41.1%).",
          "However, CRB has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +23.6%, 7/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Botafogo SP, Market \u2192 Botafogo SP, Recent sharp money \u2192 CRB.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 42.74,
        "closing_odds": 2.34,
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        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 42.74,
        "entry_odds": 2.34,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
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        "stages": [
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            "id": "forecast_generated",
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            "status": "done"
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 7,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 23.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 10.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 16,
            "bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
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            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 10.0
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          {
            "bookmaker_id": 9,
            "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
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            "odds_delta_pct": 6.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
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            "odds_delta_pct": 4.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 21,
            "bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
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            "odds_delta_pct": 3.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 3,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
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            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 3.3
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        ],
        "books_total": 13,
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        "clv_status": "evaluated",
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        "move_pct_abs": 23.6,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 23m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on CRB (23.6%, 7/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
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        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 23.6,
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            "2.75"
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          "display": "3.57 \u2192 2.75 \u2192 3.40",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 23m",
          "pick_team": "CRB",
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            {
              "label_key": "open",
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            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
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            {
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          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
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            3.4
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          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
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            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.75"
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            {
              "label_key": "low",
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            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "3.48"
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            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.40"
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          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 2.75,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: CRB \u2191 +23.6% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "CRB",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: CRB \u2191 +23.6% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 77,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "7/13",
        "current_odds": 3.4,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +23.6%",
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        "pick_team": "CRB",
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        "steam_team_name": "CRB",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
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      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 27.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_id": 146,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/146.webp",
      "away_team_name": "CRB",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
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      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 2618,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2618.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Botafogo SP",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 72,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie B Brazil",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-30 23:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Ribeirao Preto",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Santa Cruz"
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    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
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      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2347,
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0341,
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          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2401,
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.032,
            "ev": -0.1364,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2621,
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.073,
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            "p_final": 0.4841
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        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 3.83,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
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        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
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      "confidence": 7.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
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        "guard_capped": true,
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_before_guard": 7.0
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      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
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        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.645,
          "draw_prob": 0.1792,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6895,
          "over_prob": 0.736,
          "total_xg": 3.83,
          "under_prob": 0.264,
          "xg_diff": 1.53
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        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "guard_active": true,
      "guard_level": "extreme",
      "guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "guard_blocked",
          "decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.073,
          "ev": 0.1328,
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          "implied_prob": 0.4112,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6895,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Botafogo SP"
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        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
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          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.645,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.736,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1520742,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1328,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1314,
        "draw": 0.1792,
        "home": 0.6895
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "CRB",
        "home": "Botafogo SP"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.109879,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1328,
        "implied_prob": 0.4112,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.6895,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Botafogo SP",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1520742,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-30T22:59:04.660331+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}