AI correctly predicted the Universidad Católica win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Universidad Católica Universidad Católica ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delfín SC | 23.6% | 26.6% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 30.8% | 26.6% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Universidad Católica | 45.6% | 46.8% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Universidad Católica win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Universidad Católica attacking xG significantly stronger (1.37 vs 0.92)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Universidad Católica win 0–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Delfín SC 23.5% · Draw 30.9% · Universidad Católica 45.6%
- xG · Delfín SC 0.92 — Universidad Católica 1.37
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Delfín SC 3.57 · Draw 3.57 · Universidad Católica 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · Delfín SC 26.6% · Draw 26.6% · Universidad Católica 46.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Delfín SC 3.57 · Draw 3.57 · Universidad Católica 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · Delfín SC 26.6% · Draw 26.6% · Universidad Católica 46.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Universidad Católica win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
78/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Universidad Católica win · Delfín SC 0–1 Universidad Católica
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "1/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -12.2%",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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"decision_chain": {
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],
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"summary": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 4.2,
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"summary": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
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"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Universidad Cat\u00f3lica at 45.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Universidad Cat\u00f3lica as the value side (45.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
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},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Universidad Cat\u00f3lica \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.84 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519481 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.84 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0605,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4564,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0735,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.45"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.45
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.16666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.7,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.23,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.23,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.92,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.92 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"steam_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0542,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1012,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Universidad Cat\u00f3lica at 45.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Universidad Cat\u00f3lica as the value side (45.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Universidad Cat\u00f3lica \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.84 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519481 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.84 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0605,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4564,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0735,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.45"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.45
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Delf\u00edn SC 0.92 xG vs Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 1.37 \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 45.6%",
"Market: Universidad Cat\u00f3lica ~46.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Delf\u00edn SC \u2193 -12.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but sharp money moved toward Delf\u00edn SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.06,
"fair_prob": 23.55,
"label": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"market_prob": 26.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob": 30.84,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.18,
"fair_prob": 45.61,
"label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"market_prob": 46.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.19,
"fair_prob": 40.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.19,
"fair_prob": 59.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.94,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.94,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.84,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.61,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Delf\u00edn SC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.23,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.2,
"model_prob_pct": 45.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Delf\u00edn SC 0.92 xG vs Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 1.37 \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 45.6%",
"Market: Universidad Cat\u00f3lica ~46.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Delf\u00edn SC \u2193 -12.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but sharp money moved toward Delf\u00edn SC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.23,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Delf\u00edn SC odds shortened \u2193 -12.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Delf\u00edn SC, with odds shortening by 12.2%. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Delf\u00edn SC \u2014 odds shortened by 12.2%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Delf\u00edn SC, with odds shortening by 12.2%. Confirmation remains limited (1/6 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Delf\u00edn SC \u2014 odds shortened by 12.2%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Delf\u00edn SC has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 12.2%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/6), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.23,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.8 pp (at 45.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.8,
"max_prob_pct": 45.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.06,
"edge_pp": -3.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.55,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"market_prob_pct": 26.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.23,
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.84,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.61,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.18,
"edge_pp": -1.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"market_prob_pct": 46.79,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Delf\u00edn SC \u2014 odds shortened by 12.2%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Universidad Cat\u00f3lica (46.8%).",
"Delf\u00edn SC has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -12.2%, 1/6).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, Market \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, Recent sharp money \u2192 Delf\u00edn SC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.01,
"closing_odds": 3.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.01,
"entry_odds": 3.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Delf\u00edn SC (12.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.10",
"3.83",
"3.57"
],
"display": "4.10 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 35h 50m",
"pick_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.1,
3.57,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,17.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.57"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"summary": "Market moved toward Delf\u00edn SC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/6",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -12.2%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"pick_team": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_team_name": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"away_team_id": 1157,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1157.webp",
"away_team_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"away_team_public_id": "4ZgtkNbDfR6LMD",
"away_team_slug": "universidad-catolica",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1519481,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"home_team_id": 1149,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1149.webp",
"home_team_name": "Delf\u00edn SC",
"home_team_public_id": "2rOiQ45yZpwXim",
"home_team_slug": "delfin-sc",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro Ecuador",
"league_public_id": "5o6Mh46noZ9yF5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 21:00:00",
"public_id": "5uHIHTbFOu4fGT",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Manta",
"venue_name": "Estadio Jocay"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4422,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4679,
"draw": 0.2661,
"home": 0.2661
},
"model_prob": 0.4564,
"p_final": 0.4628
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2809,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0076,
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4679,
"draw": 0.2661,
"home": 0.2661
},
"model_prob": 0.3085,
"p_final": 0.278
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2861,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.0817,
"implied_prob": 0.2661,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4679,
"draw": 0.2661,
"home": 0.2661
},
"model_prob": 0.2352,
"p_final": 0.2572
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.0362,
"ev": -0.0736,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.4564
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.1012,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.3085
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": -0.0449,
"ev": -0.1605,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.2352
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2118,
"alpha_yes": 0.2118,
"best_no_odd": 1.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.85,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0394,
"edge_yes": -0.0394,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0058,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0723,
"ev_yes": -0.1397,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1026,
"implied_no": 0.4956,
"implied_yes": 0.5044,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5042
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4958
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5042,
"p_final_yes": 0.4958,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2042,
"alpha_under": 0.2246,
"best_over_odd": 2.06,
"best_under_odd": 1.76,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.01,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.73,
"edge_over": -0.0619,
"edge_under": 0.0619,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1739,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0955,
"ev_under": 0.0542,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0463,
"implied_over": 0.4629,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4626,
"implied_under": 0.5371,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5374,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.4626,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"p_final": 0.45
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0463,
"implied_prob": 0.5374,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"p_final": 0.5513
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.45,
"p_final_under": 0.5513,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.29,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0542,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1012,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0542,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0542,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1012,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Universidad Cat\u00f3lica at 45.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Universidad Cat\u00f3lica as the value side (45.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Universidad Cat\u00f3lica \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.84 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +10% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519481 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.84 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +10% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Delf\u00edn SC, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0605,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4564,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0735,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.45"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.45
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.465,
"draw_prob": 0.3085,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4564,
"over_prob": 0.401,
"total_xg": 2.29,
"under_prob": 0.599,
"xg_diff": 0.45
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4564,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0083,
"market_prob": 0.4959,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.535,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.4959,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5042
},
"p_final": 0.5042,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0723,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2118,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.1026,
"implied_prob": 0.5041,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.4958
}
},
"edge": 0.0394,
"ev": 0.0058,
"implied_prob": 0.4956,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0138,
"market_prob": 0.5374,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.599,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.0955,
"implied_prob": 0.4626,
"model_prob": 0.401,
"p_final": 0.45
},
"p_final": 0.5513,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0463,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": -0.0463,
"implied_prob": 0.5374,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"p_final": 0.5513
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0619,
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.5371,
"model_prob": 0.599,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1519481,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0542,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4564,
"draw": 0.3085,
"home": 0.2352
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"home": "Delf\u00edn SC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022726,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.5371,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.599,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0605,
"consensus_ev_display": "-6.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4564,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0735,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519481,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T20:59:09.963856+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Delfín SC & Universidad Católica!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pro Ecuador — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 51 | 27 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Orense SC | 30 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 5 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 39 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 30 | 3.5 | 1.6 | +1.9 | 51 |
| 3 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 4 | LDU Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 5 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 6 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 2.6 | 1.9 | +0.7 | 39 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 8 | Delfín SC | 30 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 10 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 13 | Libertad | 30 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 41 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 15 | Orense SC | 30 | 0.6 | 2.9 | -2.3 | 33 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |
