Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Australia. New South Wales NPL / Marconi Stallions vs St George City FA

Audit Ramalan: Marconi Stallions vs St George City FA Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Marconi Stallions Marconi Stallions
Aug 02, 2026 - 05:00
0 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 64%
St George City FA St George City FA

The model missed the final outcome (St George City FA win 0–1).

The model had projected Marconi Stallions at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan F

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Marconi Stallions St George City FA ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Marconi Stallions higher than the statistical model.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Marconi Stallions -32.2 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Marconi Stallions 39.0% 71.2% -32.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 19.5% +10.1 pp Model Edge
St George City FA 31.5% 9.4% +22.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Marconi Stallions's win probability at 71.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 32.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah St George City FA win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Marconi Stallions; match finished St George City FA

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Marconi Stallions by 32.2 percentage points (71.2% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Marconi Stallions 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · St George City FA 31.5%
    • xG · Marconi Stallions 1.38 — St George City FA 1.22
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 04:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Marconi Stallions 1.29 · Draw 4.72 · St George City FA 9.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Marconi Stallions 71.2% · Draw 19.5% · St George City FA 9.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Marconi Stallions 1.29 · Draw 4.72 · St George City FA 9.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Marconi Stallions 71.2% · Draw 19.5% · St George City FA 9.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 05:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result St George City FA win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Cautious / Wait

Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Keputusan Sejarah Wait
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (32 pp)
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1941071

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result St George City FA win · Marconi Stallions 0–1 St George City FA
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Model favours Marconi Stallions; market prices Marconi Stallions instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Marconi Stallions 1.38 xG vs St George City FA 1.22 → Marconi Stallions 39.0%
  • Market: Marconi Stallions ~71.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Lean struktur (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Bawah 2.5 51.8% · Lebih 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (ya 54.4% · Tidak 45.6%) Nilai kurus (harga): O/U 2.5 Bawah 2.5; BTTS ya

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Wait

Hasil: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

  • Pergerakan harga: kebarangkalian tersirat dan pergerakan EV dengan kemungkinan.
  • Jurang sampel / data: liga bermaklumat rendah meluaskan jalur ramalan.
  • Keadaan dalam permainan: gol dan kad merah tidak dimodelkan di sini.
  • Varians garis skor: garis markah yang paling berkemungkinan masih merupakan hasil kebarangkalian mutlak rendah (selalunya di bawah 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang New South Wales NPL Perlawanan Jejak Marconi Stallions Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak St George City FA Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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New South Wales NPL New South Wales NPL — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 21 5 4 68
2 Sydney United 30 20 4 6 64
3 Marconi Stallions 30 19 5 6 62
4 Sutherland Sharks 30 14 4 12 46
5 Manly United 30 12 8 10 44
6 Rockdale City Suns 30 13 4 13 43
7 NWS Spirit 30 12 5 13 41
8 SD Raiders 30 12 5 13 41
9 Sydney II 30 11 8 11 41
10 Western Sydney Wanderers II 30 11 5 14 38
11 Wollongong Wolves 30 11 5 14 38
12 St George City FA 30 10 7 13 37
13 Blacktown City 30 8 8 14 32
14 UNSW 30 9 5 16 32
15 St. George Saints 30 8 3 19 27
16 Sydney Olympic 30 6 5 19 23
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 APIA Leichhardt Tigers 30 66 35 +31 68
2 Western Sydney Wanderers II 30 55 49 +6 38
3 Marconi Stallions 30 50 22 +28 62
4 Rockdale City Suns 30 48 42 +6 43
5 Sydney United 30 47 20 +27 64
6 Sutherland Sharks 30 46 38 +8 46
7 SD Raiders 30 44 49 -5 41
8 Blacktown City 30 41 48 -7 32
9 Manly United 30 39 35 +4 44
10 Sydney II 30 38 43 -5 41
11 UNSW 30 38 49 -11 32
12 NWS Spirit 30 37 38 -1 41
13 Wollongong Wolves 30 35 43 -8 38
14 Sydney Olympic 30 32 62 -30 23
15 St George City FA 30 30 46 -16 37
16 St. George Saints 30 28 55 -27 27