The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Forge FC at 40.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Forge FC Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC | 35.0% | 25.7% | +9.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.0% | 27.4% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Forge FC | 40.0% | 46.9% | -6.9 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Vancouver FC's win probability at 35.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.7%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Vancouver FC.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Forge FC; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Forge FC by 9.3 percentage points (30.7% vs model 40.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vancouver FC 35.0% · Draw 25.0% · Forge FC 40.0%
- xG · Vancouver FC 1.65 — Forge FC 1.77
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vancouver FC 3.56 · Draw 3.34 · Forge FC 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Vancouver FC 25.7% · Draw 27.4% · Forge FC 46.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vancouver FC 3.56 · Draw 3.34 · Forge FC 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Vancouver FC 25.7% · Draw 27.4% · Forge FC 46.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
53/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.56
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Vancouver FC 1–1 Forge FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e4140e9b5c99f4292b5924921516dccc07875fb1d96ea9f4f3324fa084ed4917",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.77,
"away_win_prob": 0.3998,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.317,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.683,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2501,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.5,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.0,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.86,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.65,
"home_win_prob": 0.3501,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.664,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.336
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Forge FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Forge FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.77,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Forge FC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.069,
"edge_gap": 0.0504,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4691,
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.0,
"draw": 25.0,
"home": 35.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.95
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.95,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Forge FC Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.13,
"market_odds": 1.95,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": -11.3,
"value_pct": -22.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 83.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 80.8,
"no_prob": 31.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 68.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 68.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.77,
"home_expected": 1.65,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Vancouver FC or Draw",
"prob": 60.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Vancouver FC or Forge FC",
"prob": 75.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Forge FC",
"prob": 65.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Vancouver FC or Forge FC",
"pick_prob": 75.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.0,
"draw_pct": 25.0,
"home_pct": 35.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Forge FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.42,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 66.4,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 66.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.42,
"under_prob": 33.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 24.6,
"implied_prob": 28.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Vancouver FC Win",
"model_prob": 35.0,
"odds": 3.56
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Forge FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.91,
"draw": 27.39,
"home": 25.7
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 23:00:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 22:30:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Vancouver FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.7,
"gap_pp": 9.28,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.98
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.39,
"gap_pp": -2.38,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.01
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.91,
"gap_pp": -6.9,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.01
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.05,
"gap_pp": 13.35,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 66.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"gap_pp": -13.35,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 33.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.56,
"early": 3.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.34,
"early": 3.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.39,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.91,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.77,
"early": 1.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.05,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.95,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 13.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.5,
"ev": -0.3184,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.1,
"market_prob": 0.1408,
"market_prob_pct": 14.1,
"model_prob": 0.096,
"model_prob_pct": 9.6,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 5.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.65,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"edge": 0.0408,
"edge_pp": 4.1,
"market_prob": 0.5316,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.664,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": 0.0408,
"ev": -0.0039,
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"model_prob": 0.664,
"p_final": 0.5725
},
"p_final": 0.5725,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1554,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0039,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2805,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1483,
"implied_prob": 0.4684,
"model_prob": 0.336,
"p_final": 0.4312
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1952,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.5,
"text": "+19.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.3213,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.1,
"text": "-32.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1952,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 66.4,
"sort_key": 10325.68,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 33.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3143,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0385,
"edge_pp": 3.8,
"market_prob": 0.5606,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.683,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2858,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.035,
"ev": -0.1589,
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"model_prob": 0.317,
"p_final": 0.4044
},
"p_final": 0.5991,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1133,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0235,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3143,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0385,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.5606,
"model_prob": 0.683,
"p_final": 0.5991
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2867,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -28.7,
"text": "-28.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1816,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 18.2,
"text": "+18.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1816,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 31.7,
"sort_key": 10163.44,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 68.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1576,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.8,
"text": "-15.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4691,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0001,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.0,
"text": "0.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2198,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Forge FC",
"sort_key": 5200.08,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 9.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -15.0%",
"alert_team": "Vancouver FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.31,
"hero_label": "Vancouver FC",
"market_prob_pct": 46.9,
"market_team": "Forge FC",
"model_prob_pct": 40.0,
"model_team": "Forge FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1952,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2452,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Forge FC at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Forge FC as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Forge FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Forge FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.88 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1517355 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.88 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1576,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4691,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2198,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.31,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.31,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.77,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.65,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.77,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.65 \u00b7 Away xG 1.77 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +31%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -15.0%",
"steam_team": "Vancouver FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1952,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2452,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Forge FC at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Forge FC as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Forge FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Forge FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.88 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1517355 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.88 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1576,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4691,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2198,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vancouver FC 1.65 xG vs Forge FC 1.77 \u2192 Forge FC 40.0%",
"Market: Forge FC ~46.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Vancouver FC \u2193 -15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Forge FC, but sharp money moved toward Vancouver FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.31,
"fair_prob": 35.01,
"label": "Vancouver FC",
"market_prob": 25.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.38,
"fair_prob": 25.01,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.93,
"fair_prob": 39.98,
"label": "Forge FC",
"market_prob": 46.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.42,
"fair_prob": 66.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.42,
"fair_prob": 33.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.13,
"fair_prob": 68.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.13,
"fair_prob": 31.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Vancouver FC",
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Vancouver FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Vancouver FC\u0027s win probability at 35.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.7%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.31,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Forge FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Vancouver FC 1.65 xG vs Forge FC 1.77 \u2192 Forge FC 40.0%",
"Market: Forge FC ~46.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Vancouver FC \u2193 -15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Forge FC, but sharp money moved toward Vancouver FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.31,
"hero_label": "Vancouver FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Vancouver FC odds shortened \u2193 -15.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Vancouver FC.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Vancouver FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Vancouver FC.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Vancouver FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Vancouver FC.",
"Recent line movement on Vancouver FC (\u2193 -15.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Vancouver FC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.31,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.0 pp (at 40.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.0,
"max_prob_pct": 40.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Vancouver FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.3,
"lead": "The model rates Vancouver FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.31,
"edge_pp": 9.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Vancouver FC",
"market_prob_pct": 25.7,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.38,
"edge_pp": -2.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.39,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.93,
"edge_pp": -6.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.98,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Forge FC",
"market_prob_pct": 46.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Vancouver FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Forge FC (46.9%).",
"However, Vancouver FC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -15.0%, 8/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Forge FC, Market \u2192 Forge FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Vancouver FC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.09,
"closing_odds": 3.56,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.09,
"entry_odds": 3.56,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 27m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Vancouver FC (15.0% steam, score 84) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.70",
"3.40"
],
"display": "4.25 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 27m",
"pick_team": "Vancouver FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
3.56,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,13.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Vancouver FC \u2193 -15.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Vancouver FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Vancouver FC \u2193 -15.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Vancouver FC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Vancouver FC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Vancouver FC",
"steam_score": 84,
"steam_team_name": "Vancouver FC",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "forge",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Forge FC",
"away_team_id": 3830,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3830.webp",
"away_team_name": "Forge FC",
"away_team_public_id": "06Y0vru2CE3eeg",
"away_team_slug": "forge",
"country_code": "CA",
"country_display_name": "Canada",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ca.svg",
"country_id": 30,
"country_name": "Canada",
"fixture_id": 1517355,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Canada",
"home_team_display_name": "Vancouver FC",
"home_team_id": 20881,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20881.webp",
"home_team_name": "Vancouver FC",
"home_team_public_id": "0Dh0leEOtoQZUO",
"home_team_slug": "vancouver-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vancouver-fc",
"league_country": "Canada",
"league_country_display": "Canada",
"league_display_name": "Liga Perdana Kanada",
"league_id": 479,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/479.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Perdana Kanada",
"league_public_id": "5erUlSPjbQk9ju",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 23:00:00",
"public_id": "5tmhAfMLsZRHyn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Langley",
"venue_name": "Willoughby Community Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5379,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1576,
"implied_prob": 0.4691,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4691,
"draw": 0.2739,
"home": 0.257
},
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"p_final": 0.432
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2893,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0069,
"ev": -0.1082,
"implied_prob": 0.2739,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4691,
"draw": 0.2739,
"home": 0.257
},
"model_prob": 0.2501,
"p_final": 0.267
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2582,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.0001,
"implied_prob": 0.257,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4691,
"draw": 0.2739,
"home": 0.257
},
"model_prob": 0.3498,
"p_final": 0.2809
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.1127,
"ev": -0.2197,
"implied_prob": 0.5128,
"model_prob": 0.4001
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": -0.0493,
"ev": -0.1647,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.2501
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": 0.0689,
"ev": 0.2452,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.3498
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2858,
"alpha_yes": 0.3143,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1213,
"edge_yes": 0.1213,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2867,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1589,
"ev_yes": 0.1816,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0235,
"implied_no": 0.4383,
"implied_yes": 0.5617,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2858,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.035,
"ev": -0.1589,
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"model_prob": 0.317,
"p_final": 0.4044
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3143,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0385,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.5606,
"model_prob": 0.683,
"p_final": 0.5991
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4044,
"p_final_yes": 0.5991,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3086,
"alpha_under": 0.2805,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.02,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.74,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.975,
"edge_over": 0.1342,
"edge_under": -0.1342,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1952,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0039,
"ev_under": -0.3213,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1483,
"implied_over": 0.5298,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5316,
"implied_under": 0.4702,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4684,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": 0.0408,
"ev": -0.0039,
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"model_prob": 0.664,
"p_final": 0.5725
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2805,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1483,
"implied_prob": 0.4684,
"model_prob": 0.336,
"p_final": 0.4312
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5725,
"p_final_under": 0.4312,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.42,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1952,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2452,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1952,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1952,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2452,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Forge FC at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Forge FC as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Forge FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Forge FC \u00b7 decimal odds ~1.88 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1517355 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22481.88 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Vancouver FC, but the model still strongly favours Forge FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1576,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4691,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2198,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.683,
"draw_prob": 0.2501,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4001,
"over_prob": 0.664,
"total_xg": 3.42,
"under_prob": 0.336,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1576,
"implied_prob": 0.4691,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Forge FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3143,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0385,
"market_prob": 0.5606,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.683,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2858,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.035,
"ev": -0.1589,
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"model_prob": 0.317,
"p_final": 0.4044
},
"p_final": 0.5991,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0235,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3143,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": 0.0385,
"ev": -0.0235,
"implied_prob": 0.5606,
"model_prob": 0.683,
"p_final": 0.5991
}
},
"edge": 0.1213,
"ev": 0.1816,
"implied_prob": 0.5617,
"model_prob": 0.683,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"edge": 0.0408,
"market_prob": 0.5316,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.664,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3086,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": 0.0408,
"ev": -0.0039,
"implied_prob": 0.5316,
"model_prob": 0.664,
"p_final": 0.5725
},
"p_final": 0.5725,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0039,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2805,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": -0.0371,
"ev": -0.1483,
"implied_prob": 0.4684,
"model_prob": 0.336,
"p_final": 0.4312
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1342,
"ev": 0.1952,
"implied_prob": 0.5298,
"model_prob": 0.664,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1517355,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1952,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4001,
"draw": 0.2501,
"home": 0.3498
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1816,
"implied_prob": 0.5617,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.683,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1816,
"implied_prob": 0.5617,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.683,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Forge FC",
"home": "Vancouver FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.162016,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1952,
"implied_prob": 0.5298,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.664,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1576,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4691,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4001,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5128205128205129,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2198,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1517355,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T23:00:05.385250+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Vancouver FC & Forge FC!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Perdana Kanada — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge FC | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 46 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 32 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 26 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | York United FC | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 48 | 13 | +35 | 53 |
| 2 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 37 |
| 3 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 26 |
| 4 | Forge FC | 22 | 34 | 16 | +18 | 46 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 24 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 32 |
| 6 | York United FC | 22 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 24 |
| 7 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 25 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 22 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 23 | 7.3 | 2.4 | +4.9 | 53 |
| 2 | Pacific FC | 22 | 12.1 | 9.3 | +2.8 | 11 |
| 3 | Forge FC | 22 | 8.3 | 6.8 | +1.5 | 46 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 24 | 6.4 | 5.8 | +0.6 | 32 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 23 | 9.9 | 10.1 | -0.2 | 25 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 24 | 9.0 | 10.8 | -1.8 | 26 |
| 7 | Atlético Ottawa | 24 | 6.8 | 9.3 | -2.5 | 37 |
| 8 | York United FC | 22 | 7.3 | 12.5 | -5.2 | 24 |
