Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Uzbekistan. Super League Uzbekistan / Neftchi Fergana vs Xorazm Urganch

Audit Ramalan: Neftchi Fergana vs Xorazm Urganch Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Neftchi Fergana Neftchi Fergana
Oct 07, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 68%
Xorazm Urganch Xorazm Urganch

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Neftchi Fergana at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan F

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Neftchi Fergana Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ tak betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Neftchi Fergana higher than the statistical model.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Neftchi Fergana -37.3 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Neftchi Fergana 40.9% 78.2% -37.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 13.7% +15.7 pp Model Edge
Xorazm Urganch 29.7% 8.1% +21.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Neftchi Fergana's win probability at 78.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 37.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Neftchi Fergana; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Neftchi Fergana by 37.3 percentage points (78.2% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Oct 01, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Neftchi Fergana 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Xorazm Urganch 29.6%
    • xG · Neftchi Fergana 1.42 — Xorazm Urganch 1.18
  2. Oct 07, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
    • 1X2 odds · Neftchi Fergana 1.09 · Draw 9.45 · Xorazm Urganch 22.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Neftchi Fergana 85.8% · Draw 9.9% · Xorazm Urganch 4.2%
    • Bookmaker · 1xbet br
  3. Oct 07, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Neftchi Fergana 1.18 · Draw 6.73 · Xorazm Urganch 11.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Neftchi Fergana 78.2% · Draw 13.7% · Xorazm Urganch 8.1%
    • Bookmaker · 1xbet
  4. Oct 07, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Cautious / Wait

Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Keputusan Sejarah Wait
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 30/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (37 pp)
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 01, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12185553

Closing Odds 1.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Neftchi Fergana 2–2 Xorazm Urganch
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Model favours Neftchi Fergana; market prices Neftchi Fergana instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Neftchi Fergana 1.42 xG vs Xorazm Urganch 1.18 → Neftchi Fergana 40.9%
  • Market: Neftchi Fergana ~78.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Lean struktur (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Bawah 2.5 51.8% · Lebih 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (ya 54.1% · Tidak 45.9%) Nilai kurus (harga): O/U 2.5 Bawah 2.5; BTTS ya

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Wait

Hasil: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

  • Pergerakan harga: kebarangkalian tersirat dan pergerakan EV dengan kemungkinan.
  • Jurang sampel / data: liga bermaklumat rendah meluaskan jalur ramalan.
  • Keadaan dalam permainan: gol dan kad merah tidak dimodelkan di sini.
  • Varians garis skor: garis markah yang paling berkemungkinan masih merupakan hasil kebarangkalian mutlak rendah (selalunya di bawah 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang Super League Uzbekistan Perlawanan Jejak Neftchi Fergana Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak Xorazm Urganch Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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Super League Uzbekistan Super League Uzbekistan — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Neftchi Fergana 22 16 3 3 51
2 Pakhtakor Tashkent 22 14 7 1 49
3 Navbahor Namangan 22 13 5 4 44
4 Olmaliq 22 10 5 7 35
5 Lokomotiv Tashkent 22 10 5 7 35
6 Nasaf Qarshi 22 9 7 6 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 34
8 Andijan 22 9 3 10 30
9 Dinamo Samarqand 22 8 6 8 30
10 Qizilqum Zarafshon 22 9 2 11 29
11 Sogdiana Jizzakh 22 8 4 10 28
12 Surkhon Termez 22 7 5 10 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22
14 Xorazm Urganch 22 5 6 11 21
15 Kokand-1912 22 4 8 10 20
16 Mash'al 22 1 1 20 4
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Neftchi Fergana 22 50 17 +33 51
2 Pakhtakor Tashkent 22 39 20 +19 49
3 Navbahor Namangan 22 39 21 +18 44
4 Sogdiana Jizzakh 22 38 43 -5 28
5 Lokomotiv Tashkent 22 36 28 +8 35
6 Nasaf Qarshi 22 33 21 +12 34
7 Dinamo Samarqand 22 33 34 -1 30
8 Buxoro 22 32 29 +3 34
9 Olmaliq 22 31 29 +2 35
10 Andijan 22 27 28 -1 30
11 Qizilqum Zarafshon 22 23 30 -7 29
12 Bunyodkor 22 22 36 -14 22
13 Surkhon Termez 22 19 28 -9 26
14 Kokand-1912 22 19 30 -11 20
15 Xorazm Urganch 22 18 32 -14 21
16 Mash'al 22 11 44 -33 4
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