The model missed the final outcome (Qizilqum Zarafshon win 1–3).
The model had projected Xorazm Urganch at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Xorazm Urganch Qizilqum Zarafshon ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xorazm Urganch | 39.9% | 44.1% | -4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 29.9% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Qizilqum Zarafshon | 30.6% | 26.0% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Qizilqum Zarafshon win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Xorazm Urganch; match finished Qizilqum Zarafshon
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Qizilqum Zarafshon win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Xorazm Urganch 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Qizilqum Zarafshon 30.6%
- xG · Xorazm Urganch 1.40 — Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.20
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 14:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Xorazm Urganch 2.10 · Draw 3.10 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 3.57
- Implied 1X2 · Xorazm Urganch 44.1% · Draw 29.9% · Qizilqum Zarafshon 26.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Xorazm Urganch 2.10 · Draw 3.10 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 3.57
- Implied 1X2 · Xorazm Urganch 44.1% · Draw 29.9% · Qizilqum Zarafshon 26.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 15:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Qizilqum Zarafshon win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
76/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Qizilqum Zarafshon win · Xorazm Urganch 1–3 Qizilqum Zarafshon
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
{
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"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1101,
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"capped": false,
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},
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"alert_team": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.6,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xorazm Urganch)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Xorazm Urganch at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Xorazm Urganch as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Xorazm Urganch",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xorazm Urganch).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.62,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.62,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"steam_team": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xorazm Urganch).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xorazm Urganch)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xorazm Urganch)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Xorazm Urganch at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Xorazm Urganch as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Xorazm Urganch",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xorazm Urganch).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Xorazm Urganch 1.40 xG vs Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.20 \u2192 Xorazm Urganch 39.9%",
"Market: Xorazm Urganch ~44.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Qizilqum Zarafshon odds \u2191 +18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Xorazm Urganch with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.2,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Xorazm Urganch",
"market_prob": 44.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.42,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.62,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"market_prob": 25.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.76,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.76,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.64,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.64,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"market_prob_pct": 25.96,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Qizilqum Zarafshon"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.62,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Xorazm Urganch",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Xorazm Urganch \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Xorazm Urganch 1.40 xG vs Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.20 \u2192 Xorazm Urganch 39.9%",
"Market: Xorazm Urganch ~44.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Qizilqum Zarafshon odds \u2191 +18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Xorazm Urganch with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.62,
"hero_label": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Qizilqum Zarafshon odds lengthened \u2191 +18.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Qizilqum Zarafshon.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Qizilqum Zarafshon."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Qizilqum Zarafshon (\u2191 +18.2%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.62,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.2,
"edge_pp": -4.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Xorazm Urganch",
"market_prob_pct": 44.14,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.42,
"edge_pp": -0.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.62,
"edge_pp": 4.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"market_prob_pct": 25.96,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Qizilqum Zarafshon.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Xorazm Urganch (44.1%).",
"Qizilqum Zarafshon odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +18.2%, 1/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Xorazm Urganch \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.01,
"closing_odds": 3.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.01,
"entry_odds": 3.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Qizilqum Zarafshon (18.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.60",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.90 \u2192 3.16 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 54m",
"pick_team": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.16"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.57,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,9.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +18.2%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "qizilqum",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"away_team_id": 4221,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4221.webp",
"away_team_name": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"away_team_public_id": "3j8BEpfPb7NDEl",
"away_team_slug": "qizilqum",
"country_code": "UZ",
"country_display_name": "Uzbekistan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uz.svg",
"country_id": 164,
"country_name": "Uzbekistan",
"fixture_id": 1516144,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uzbekistan",
"home_team_display_name": "Xorazm Urganch",
"home_team_id": 16381,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16381.webp",
"home_team_name": "Xorazm Urganch",
"home_team_public_id": "3akfVMcwNdJ77m",
"home_team_slug": "xorazm",
"ht.home_team_slug": "xorazm",
"league_country": "Uzbekistan",
"league_country_display": "Uzbekistan",
"league_display_name": "Super League Uzbekistan",
"league_id": 369,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/369.webp",
"league_name": "Super League Uzbekistan",
"league_public_id": "4LJoAtBsbfeswJ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-21 15:15:00",
"public_id": "5Ojdz1kcJe7vuC",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Xorazm Urganch Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2793,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0273,
"implied_prob": 0.2596,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2596,
"draw": 0.299,
"home": 0.4414
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2725
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2981,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0013,
"ev": -0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2596,
"draw": 0.299,
"home": 0.4414
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2977
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4219,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2596,
"draw": 0.299,
"home": 0.4414
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4238
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": 0.0255,
"ev": 0.0909,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0278,
"ev": -0.0863,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.0765,
"ev": -0.1607,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2229,
"alpha_yes": 0.2027,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0664,
"edge_yes": 0.0664,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1774,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1103,
"ev_yes": 0.0588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0587,
"implied_no": 0.5234,
"implied_yes": 0.4766,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2229,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.1103,
"implied_prob": 0.5232,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5084
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2027,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0587,
"implied_prob": 0.4768,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4902
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5084,
"p_final_yes": 0.4902,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.161,
"alpha_under": 0.2213,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.245,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": 0.0676,
"edge_under": -0.0676,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0506,
"ev_under": -0.1712,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1006,
"implied_over": 0.4144,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4115,
"implied_under": 0.5856,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5885,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.161,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4229
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2213,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1006,
"implied_prob": 0.5885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5729
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4229,
"p_final_under": 0.5729,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
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"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Xorazm Urganch)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1086,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1086,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Xorazm Urganch at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Xorazm Urganch as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Xorazm Urganch",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +10.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +10.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+10.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 6.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
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"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
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"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
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"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
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"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0176,
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"max_ev_side": "away",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Xorazm Urganch"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0134,
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
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"edge": -0.0147,
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"implied_prob": 0.5232,
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"p_final": 0.4902,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0587,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0587,
"implied_prob": 0.4768,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0664,
"ev": 0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4766,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.4115,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.161,
"best_odd": 2.245,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
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"p_final": 0.4229
},
"p_final": 0.4229,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0506,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2213,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1006,
"implied_prob": 0.5885,
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"p_final": 0.5729
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0676,
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4144,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1516144,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1086,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4766,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.0588,
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Qizilqum Zarafshon",
"home": "Xorazm Urganch"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.036642,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4144,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1606,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1516144,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-21T15:14:07.024419+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Super League Uzbekistan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 51 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf Qarshi | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 |
| 8 | Andijan | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 11 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon Termez | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm Urganch | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 20 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 22 | 50 | 17 | +33 | 51 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 22 | 39 | 20 | +19 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 22 | 39 | 21 | +18 | 44 |
| 4 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 22 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 28 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 22 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf Qarshi | 22 | 33 | 21 | +12 | 34 |
| 7 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 30 |
| 8 | Buxoro | 22 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 34 |
| 9 | Olmaliq | 22 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 35 |
| 10 | Andijan | 22 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 30 |
| 11 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 22 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Bunyodkor | 22 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 22 |
| 13 | Surkhon Termez | 22 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 20 |
| 15 | Xorazm Urganch | 22 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 21 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | 11 | 44 | -33 | 4 |
