The model missed the final outcome (Fylkir win 4–1).
The model had projected Njardvik at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Njardvik Fylkir ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fylkir | 34.2% | 51.2% | -16.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.0% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Njardvik | 36.1% | 25.8% | +10.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Fylkir's win probability at 51.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 16.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Fylkir win 4–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Fylkir than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Njardvik; match finished Fylkir
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Njardvik by 16.9 percentage points (53.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 19:50 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fylkir 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Njardvik 36.1%
- xG · Fylkir 1.28 — Njardvik 1.32
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fylkir 1.81 · Draw 4.02 · Njardvik 3.59
- Implied 1X2 · Fylkir 51.2% · Draw 23.0% · Njardvik 25.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fylkir 1.81 · Draw 4.02 · Njardvik 3.59
- Implied 1X2 · Fylkir 51.2% · Draw 23.0% · Njardvik 25.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 17, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fylkir win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
1. Deild Iceland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 45 |
| 2 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 40 |
| 4 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 38 |
| 5 | Njardvik | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 38 |
| 6 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 8 | Grotta | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | Vestri | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 10 | Völsungur | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 9 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 65 | 33 | +32 | 45 |
| 2 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 38 |
| 3 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 43 |
| 4 | Fylkir | 22 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 40 |
| 5 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 28 |
| 6 | Njardvik | 22 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 38 |
| 7 | Grotta | 22 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 27 |
| 8 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 28 |
| 9 | Völsungur | 22 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 10 | Vestri | 22 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 27 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 25 | 69 | -44 | 9 |
