The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Tacoma Defiance at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Tacoma Defiance Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacoma Defiance | 35.6% | 41.0% | -5.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.3% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Portland Timbers II | 34.7% | 33.7% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Tacoma Defiance's win probability at 41.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Tacoma Defiance. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Tacoma Defiance; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tacoma Defiance by 5.4 percentage points (41.0% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tacoma Defiance 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Portland Timbers II 34.7%
- xG · Tacoma Defiance 1.31 — Portland Timbers II 1.29
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tacoma Defiance 2.26 · Draw 3.67 · Portland Timbers II 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Tacoma Defiance 41.0% · Draw 25.3% · Portland Timbers II 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tacoma Defiance 2.26 · Draw 3.67 · Portland Timbers II 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Tacoma Defiance 41.0% · Draw 25.3% · Portland Timbers II 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
73/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.26
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Tacoma Defiance 1–1 Portland Timbers II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
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"steam_score": null,
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
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},
{
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
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},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tacoma Defiance at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tacoma Defiance as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tacoma Defiance",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
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"total": 8
},
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"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tacoma Defiance).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
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"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
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"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
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],
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}
}
},
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{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
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},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
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],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
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{
"key": "validation",
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"validation": 30.0
},
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},
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"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
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"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
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"mv_status": "pass",
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"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
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"market_compatibility": {
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"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
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},
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"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
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"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
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},
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"label": "Primary Bet"
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},
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"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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},
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"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tacoma Defiance)."
},
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"best_outlier_ev": 0.2512,
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"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tacoma Defiance at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.0%.",
"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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"headline": "Primary Bet",
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"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
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{
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"ok": true,
"value": "no"
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{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
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"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tacoma Defiance).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
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"Market aligns with model",
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],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
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"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.6%"
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"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
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"recommended_action": "monitor",
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"uplift_away": null,
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"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
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}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Tacoma Defiance 1.31 xG vs Portland Timbers II 1.29 \u2192 Tacoma Defiance 35.6%",
"Market: Tacoma Defiance ~41.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Tacoma Defiance +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tacoma Defiance with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
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{
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"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Tacoma Defiance",
"market_prob": 41.02,
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"outcome": "home"
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{
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"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.99,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Portland Timbers II",
"market_prob": 33.71,
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"outcome": "away"
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{
"edge_pp": -12.92,
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"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
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"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
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"outcome": "under"
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{
"edge_pp": -10.28,
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{
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"edge_snapshot": {
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"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
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"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Tacoma Defiance"
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Tacoma Defiance\u0027s win probability at 41.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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},
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"divergence_level": "moderate",
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"divergence_tier": "moderate",
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"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
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"headline": "Balanced match",
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"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
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"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
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"gap_pp": -5.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
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"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Tacoma Defiance \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
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"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
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"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
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"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
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"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 73,
"tier": "high",
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},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
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"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
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"Market: Tacoma Defiance ~41.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Tacoma Defiance +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Tacoma Defiance with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
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"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
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"hero_edge_pp": -5.38,
"hero_label": "Tacoma Defiance",
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"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
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"bullets": [
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],
"follow_up": "",
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"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Tacoma Defiance. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Tacoma Defiance relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
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],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
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"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
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"status": "pass"
},
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"breakdown": [
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"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
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"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
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},
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"overall_assessment": {
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"largest_gap_pp": -5.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Tacoma Defiance higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
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"paragraphs": [
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],
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"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
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{
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{
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"id": "model_validated",
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{
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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}
]
},
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},
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"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
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"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
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"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4011.webp",
"away_team_name": "Portland Timbers II",
"away_team_public_id": "19zZ7YbjKIDajm",
"away_team_slug": "portland-timbers-ii",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1513376,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Tacoma Defiance",
"home_team_id": 4020,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4020.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tacoma Defiance",
"home_team_public_id": "5a90k4sLwmAYDx",
"home_team_slug": "tacoma-defiance",
"ht.home_team_slug": "tacoma-defiance",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_id": 909,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/909.webp",
"league_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_public_id": "3CwVqdBnoU3vAe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 21:00:00",
"public_id": "5a9yJkGKj1M8o0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Starfire Sports"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4432,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0045,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.3371,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3371,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.4102
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3416
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2801,
"best_odd": 3.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.2526,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3371,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.4102
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.265
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4133,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0224,
"ev": -0.1236,
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3371,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.4102
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3878
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.67,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": 0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.2725,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": -0.0865,
"ev": -0.1956,
"implied_prob": 0.4425,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1526,
"alpha_yes": 0.2098,
"best_no_odd": 2.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1028,
"edge_yes": -0.1028,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2512,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0483,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1183,
"implied_no": 0.3522,
"implied_yes": 0.6478,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3689
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6466,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6253
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3689,
"p_final_yes": 0.6253,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2002,
"alpha_under": 0.1456,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.41,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.515,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.365,
"edge_over": -0.1292,
"edge_under": 0.1292,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1152,
"ev_under": 0.2484,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0326,
"implied_over": 0.6112,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6095,
"implied_under": 0.3888,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3905,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.515,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1152,
"implied_prob": 0.6095,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.584
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.3905,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.409
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.584,
"p_final_under": 0.409,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2512,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2512,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tacoma Defiance)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2512,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2512,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tacoma Defiance at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tacoma Defiance as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tacoma Defiance",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +25.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +25.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+25.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Tacoma Defiance).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0224,
"ev": -0.1236,
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Tacoma Defiance"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0155,
"market_prob": 0.3534,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0483,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3689
},
"p_final": 0.3689,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0483,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1183,
"implied_prob": 0.6466,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6253
}
},
"edge": 0.1028,
"ev": 0.2512,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0186,
"market_prob": 0.3905,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 1.515,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1152,
"implied_prob": 0.6095,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.584
},
"p_final": 0.409,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0326,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.3905,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.409
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1292,
"ev": 0.2484,
"implied_prob": 0.3888,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513376,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2512,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2484,
"implied_prob": 0.3888,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2484,
"implied_prob": 0.3888,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Portland Timbers II",
"home": "Tacoma Defiance"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.114296,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2512,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1236,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4424778761061947,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513376,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T20:59:52.715232+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Tacoma Defiance & Portland Timbers II!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
MLS Next Pro — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 48 |
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 54 |
| 1 | Austin II | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | New England II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 54 |
| 3 | New York City II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 45 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | New York RB II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 43 |
| 6 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 43 |
| 6 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Toronto II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 39 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | North Texas | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 38 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 41 |
| 9 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 37 |
| 10 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 36 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 29 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 12 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 27 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 38 |
| 13 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 6 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 14 | Carolina Core | 26 | 9 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 18 |
| 16 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 15 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 63 | 36 | +27 | 54 |
| 2 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 46 |
| 3 | New York RB II | 28 | 58 | 48 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 57 | 40 | +17 | 45 |
| 5 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 54 | 34 | +20 | 50 |
| 6 | Austin II | 26 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 51 |
| 8 | Chattanooga | 26 | 51 | 38 | +13 | 50 |
| 9 | New York City II | 28 | 50 | 44 | +6 | 47 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 26 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 41 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 49 | 43 | +6 | 48 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 39 |
| 13 | Toronto II | 28 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 39 |
| 14 | New England II | 28 | 47 | 42 | +5 | 48 |
| 15 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 36 |
| 16 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 42 |
| 17 | Huntsville City | 26 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 38 |
| 18 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 41 | 37 | +4 | 43 |
| 19 | North Texas | 26 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 38 |
| 20 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 39 |
| 21 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 27 |
| 22 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 43 |
| 23 | Carolina Core | 26 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 28 |
| 24 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 29 |
| 25 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 54 |
| 26 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 37 |
| 27 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 32 | 62 | -30 | 20 |
| 28 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 32 | 68 | -36 | 20 |
| 29 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 27 | 63 | -36 | 15 |
| 30 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 18 |
