The model missed the final outcome (Hestrafor win 2–1).
The model had projected Qviding FIF at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Qviding FIF Hestrafor ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hestrafor | 31.5% | 40.4% | -8.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.6% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
| Qviding FIF | 39.0% | 35.0% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Hestrafor's win probability at 40.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Hestrafor win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Hestrafor. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Qviding FIF; match finished Hestrafor
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Qviding FIF by 8.9 percentage points (47.9% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hestrafor 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Qviding FIF 39.0%
- xG · Hestrafor 1.22 — Qviding FIF 1.38
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hestrafor 2.20 · Draw 3.61 · Qviding FIF 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Hestrafor 40.4% · Draw 24.6% · Qviding FIF 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hestrafor 2.20 · Draw 3.61 · Qviding FIF 2.54
- Implied 1X2 · Hestrafor 40.4% · Draw 24.6% · Qviding FIF 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hestrafor win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 - Västra Götaland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 23 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 51 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 43 |
| 3 | Hestrafor | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 40 |
| 4 | Jonsered | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Lindome | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Böljan | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Västra Frölunda | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Qviding FIF | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 9 | Onsala | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Kongahälla | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 27 |
| 11 | Åstorp | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 12 | Torslanda | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 14 | Astrio | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 6 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hestrafor | 22 | 47 | 37 | +10 | 40 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 23 | 44 | 25 | +19 | 43 |
| 3 | Lindome | 23 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 34 |
| 4 | Västra Frölunda | 22 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 33 |
| 5 | Qviding FIF | 22 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 31 |
| 6 | Landvetter IS | 23 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 51 |
| 7 | Jonsered | 22 | 38 | 36 | +2 | 38 |
| 8 | Torslanda | 23 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 25 |
| 9 | Böljan | 23 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 34 |
| 10 | Kongahälla | 23 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 27 |
| 11 | Galtabacks | 22 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Onsala | 22 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
| 13 | Åstorp | 22 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 26 |
| 14 | Astrio | 22 | 15 | 53 | -38 | 6 |
