AI correctly predicted the Sunnersta win.
The match finished 6–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Sunnersta Sunnersta ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunnersta | 37.5% | 77.5% | -40.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 14.7% | +14.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Lidingö | 32.9% | 7.8% | +25.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Sunnersta's win probability at 77.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 40.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Sunnersta win 6–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sunnersta higher (77.5% vs model 37.5%, 40.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sunnersta win 6–0).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sunnersta 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Lidingö 32.9%
- xG · Sunnersta 1.35 — Lidingö 1.25
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sunnersta 1.15 · Draw 6.05 · Lidingö 11.50
- Implied 1X2 · Sunnersta 77.5% · Draw 14.7% · Lidingö 7.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Sunnersta 1.15 · Draw 6.05 · Lidingö 11.50
- Implied 1X2 · Sunnersta 77.5% · Draw 14.7% · Lidingö 7.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sunnersta win · 6–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (40 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 - Norra Svealand — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skiljebo | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Sunnersta | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | Angby | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 4 | Enskede | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 5 | Falu BS | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 6 | Täby | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Gute | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 8 | Bollstanäs | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28 |
| 9 | Franke | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 10 | Lidingö | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| 11 | Kungsängen | 22 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| 12 | Viggbyholms IK | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 13 | Korsnäs | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | Helges | 23 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunnersta | 23 | 57 | 19 | +38 | 50 |
| 2 | Skiljebo | 23 | 54 | 24 | +30 | 53 |
| 3 | Angby | 22 | 46 | 25 | +21 | 45 |
| 4 | Täby | 23 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 38 |
| 5 | Bollstanäs | 22 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 28 |
| 6 | Gute | 23 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 32 |
| 7 | Enskede | 22 | 36 | 23 | +13 | 43 |
| 8 | Falu BS | 22 | 35 | 25 | +10 | 41 |
| 9 | Franke | 22 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 25 |
| 10 | Lidingö | 23 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 20 |
| 11 | Kungsängen | 22 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 19 |
| 12 | Korsnäs | 23 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 14 |
| 13 | Viggbyholms IK | 23 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 19 |
| 14 | Helges | 23 | 20 | 57 | -37 | 10 |
