Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga / Rustavi vs Saburtalo

Audit Ramalan: Rustavi vs Saburtalo Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Sep 21, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 60%

AI correctly predicted the Saburtalo win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan F

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Saburtalo Saburtalo ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ tak betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Draw -1.9 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Rustavi 32.4% 32.3% +0.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 31.5% -1.9 pp Aligned
Saburtalo 38.0% 36.2% +1.9 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Saburtalo win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Saburtalo win 0–2).

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rustavi 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Saburtalo 38.0%
    • xG · Rustavi 1.24 — Saburtalo 1.36
  2. Sep 21, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rustavi 2.82 · Draw 2.89 · Saburtalo 2.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Rustavi 32.3% · Draw 31.5% · Saburtalo 36.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 21, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rustavi 2.82 · Draw 2.89 · Saburtalo 2.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Rustavi 32.3% · Draw 31.5% · Saburtalo 36.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 21, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Saburtalo win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Observe
Keputusan Sejarah No Primary Bet
Hasil Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 90/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8838734

Closing Odds 2.89
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Saburtalo win · Rustavi 0–2 Saburtalo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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        "show": true,
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        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
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            "key": "clv_pending",
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            "action_label": "Action",
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            "is_primary": true,
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            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Saburtalo as the value side (38.0%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 1.9,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Saburtalo",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "warning"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "86 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "90 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Saburtalo).",
            "Decision strength: 5.9/10"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 86,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.0681,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-6.8%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.52,
            "disagreement_label": "Normal",
            "disagreement_level": "normal",
            "implied_prob": 0.3616,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.3803,
            "raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.0416,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.2%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "warning",
            "deviation_pct": 0.7,
            "reasons": [
              "Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "monitor",
            "strength_delta": -1.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "low",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": -10,
              "strength_delta": -1.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.12
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "9/9",
        "breadth_ratio": 1.0,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 75,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 24.0,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 10.0,
            "steam_coherence": 5.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 86,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 1.94,
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "max_gap_pp": 1.94,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.36,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 1.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.24,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.36,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Rustavi",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 90,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 90,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 38,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 90,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Saburtalo).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 1.9,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "high",
            "probability_gap_pp": 1.9,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Saburtalo)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 1.9,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "high",
              "probability_gap_pp": 1.9,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Saburtalo)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.0508,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate",
            "decision_strength": 5.9,
            "decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
            "decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 90,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Saburtalo at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.2%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Saburtalo as the value side (38.0%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 1.9,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Saburtalo",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "warning"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "86 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "90 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Saburtalo).",
              "Decision strength: 5.9/10"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 86,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.0681,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-6.8%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.52,
              "disagreement_label": "Normal",
              "disagreement_level": "normal",
              "implied_prob": 0.3616,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.3803,
              "raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.0416,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.2%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "warning",
              "deviation_pct": 0.7,
              "reasons": [
                "Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "monitor",
              "strength_delta": -1.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "low",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": -10,
                "strength_delta": -1.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.12
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Rustavi 1.24 xG vs Saburtalo 1.36 \u2192 Saburtalo 38.0%",
            "Market: Saburtalo ~36.2% implied",
            "Market Steam: Rustavi +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Saburtalo with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 0.08,
          "fair_prob": 32.39,
          "label": "Rustavi",
          "market_prob": 32.31,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -1.94,
          "fair_prob": 29.59,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 31.53,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.85,
          "fair_prob": 38.01,
          "label": "Saburtalo",
          "market_prob": 36.16,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.46,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 43.74,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.46,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 56.26,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.02,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 50.38,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.02,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 49.62,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": -1.94,
        "fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "hero_team_name": "Draw",
        "market_prob_pct": 31.53,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Rustavi"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 1.94,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Saburtalo",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 36.2,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 1.8,
          "model_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 1.8,
            "label": "High",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "High reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 86,
          "reliability_tier": "high",
          "summary": "Saburtalo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 90,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 90,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 38,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 90,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Rustavi 1.24 xG vs Saburtalo 1.36 \u2192 Saburtalo 38.0%",
              "Market: Saburtalo ~36.2% implied",
              "Market Steam: Rustavi +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Saburtalo with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -1.94,
        "hero_label": "Draw",
        "hero_side": "draw",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Rustavi has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Rustavi.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Rustavi has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market activity is currently concentrated on Rustavi."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Rustavi has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Rustavi."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 1.94,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "aligned",
          "largest_gap_label": "Draw",
          "largest_gap_pp": -1.9,
          "lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
          "level": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 1.9,
          "title": "Broadly Aligned"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 0.08,
            "edge_pp": 0.08,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Rustavi",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.31,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -1.94,
            "edge_pp": -1.94,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.53,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 1.85,
            "edge_pp": 1.85,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Saburtalo",
            "market_prob_pct": 36.16,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Rustavi.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Saburtalo (36.2%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Saburtalo, Market \u2192 Saburtalo, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 34.6,
        "closing_odds": 2.89,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 34.6,
        "entry_odds": 2.89,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "9/9",
        "current_odds": 2.7,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.7,
        "pick_team": "Rustavi",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Rustavi",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 1.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "saburtalo",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Saburtalo",
      "away_team_id": 3502,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3502.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Saburtalo",
      "away_team_name_canonical": "Saburtalo",
      "away_team_public_id": "1wjzS55N7gUO7f",
      "away_team_slug": "saburtalo",
      "country_code": "GE",
      "country_display_name": "Georgia",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ge.svg",
      "country_id": 59,
      "country_name": "Georgia",
      "fixture_id": 1509190,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Georgia",
      "home_team_display_name": "Rustavi",
      "home_team_id": 3501,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3501.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Rustavi",
      "home_team_public_id": "0V2FJvZGxOTr28",
      "home_team_slug": "rustavi",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "rustavi",
      "league_country": "Georgia",
      "league_country_display": "Georgia",
      "league_display_name": "Erovnuli Liga",
      "league_id": 327,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/327.webp",
      "league_name": "Erovnuli Liga",
      "league_public_id": "3f0ezu4fR8JJ1P",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-21 15:00:00",
      "public_id": "2Mg0RVHxTZ8eRc",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Tbilisi",
      "venue_name": "David Petriashvili Stadium"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4373,
            "best_odd": 2.52,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0082,
            "ev": -0.0681,
            "implied_prob": 0.3616,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3616,
              "draw": 0.3153,
              "home": 0.3231
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3803,
            "p_final": 0.3698
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4369,
            "best_odd": 2.89,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0085,
            "ev": -0.1132,
            "implied_prob": 0.3153,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3616,
              "draw": 0.3153,
              "home": 0.3231
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2959,
            "p_final": 0.3068
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4496,
            "best_odd": 2.82,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0003,
            "ev": -0.088,
            "implied_prob": 0.3231,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.3616,
              "draw": 0.3153,
              "home": 0.3231
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3237,
            "p_final": 0.3234
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.52,
            "edge": -0.0165,
            "ev": -0.0415,
            "implied_prob": 0.3968,
            "model_prob": 0.3803
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 2.89,
            "edge": -0.0501,
            "ev": -0.1447,
            "implied_prob": 0.346,
            "model_prob": 0.2959
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.82,
            "edge": -0.0309,
            "ev": -0.0871,
            "implied_prob": 0.3546,
            "model_prob": 0.3237
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.2111,
          "alpha_yes": 0.2111,
          "best_no_odd": 1.91,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.85,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.0402,
          "edge_yes": 0.0402,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.129,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1011,
          "ev_yes": 0.0064,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0692,
          "implied_no": 0.4962,
          "implied_yes": 0.5038,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2111,
              "best_odd": 1.84,
              "edge": -0.0087,
              "ev": -0.1011,
              "implied_prob": 0.4973,
              "model_prob": 0.456,
              "p_final": 0.4886
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2111,
              "best_odd": 1.82,
              "edge": 0.0087,
              "ev": -0.0692,
              "implied_prob": 0.5027,
              "model_prob": 0.544,
              "p_final": 0.5114
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "p_final_no": 0.4886,
          "p_final_yes": 0.5114,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.2208,
          "alpha_under": 0.2429,
          "best_over_odd": 2.18,
          "best_under_odd": 1.68,
          "consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
          "edge_over": 0.0446,
          "edge_under": -0.0446,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0508,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.059,
          "ev_under": -0.1298,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0965,
          "implied_over": 0.4374,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.4385,
          "implied_under": 0.5626,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.5615,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 8,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2208,
              "best_odd": 2.1,
              "edge": 0.0096,
              "ev": -0.059,
              "implied_prob": 0.4385,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.4481
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2429,
              "best_odd": 1.64,
              "edge": -0.0106,
              "ev": -0.0965,
              "implied_prob": 0.5615,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5509
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.4481,
          "p_final_under": 0.5509,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.0508,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0508,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 5.9,
        "score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 5.9,
        "score_pre_penalty": 6.9
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 1.9,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "high",
          "probability_gap_pp": 1.9,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Saburtalo)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.0508,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate",
        "decision_strength": 5.9,
        "decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
        "decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 90,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Saburtalo at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.2%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Saburtalo as the value side (38.0%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 1.9,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Saburtalo",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "warning"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "86 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "90 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Saburtalo).",
          "Decision strength: 5.9/10"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 86,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.0681,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-6.8%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.52,
          "disagreement_label": "Normal",
          "disagreement_level": "normal",
          "implied_prob": 0.3616,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.3803,
          "raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.0416,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.2%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "warning",
          "deviation_pct": 0.7,
          "reasons": [
            "Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "monitor",
          "strength_delta": -1.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "low",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": -10,
            "strength_delta": -1.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.12
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2959,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.12
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.52,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0082,
          "ev": -0.0681,
          "implied_prob": 0.3616,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3803,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Saburtalo"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2111,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.82,
            "edge": 0.0087,
            "market_prob": 0.5027,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.544,
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2111,
              "best_odd": 1.84,
              "edge": -0.0087,
              "ev": -0.1011,
              "implied_prob": 0.4973,
              "model_prob": 0.456,
              "p_final": 0.4886
            },
            "p_final": 0.5114,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0692,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2111,
              "best_odd": 1.82,
              "edge": 0.0087,
              "ev": -0.0692,
              "implied_prob": 0.5027,
              "model_prob": 0.544,
              "p_final": 0.5114
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0402,
          "ev": 0.0064,
          "implied_prob": 0.5038,
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2208,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.1,
            "edge": 0.0096,
            "market_prob": 0.4385,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "n_bookmakers": 8,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2208,
              "best_odd": 2.1,
              "edge": 0.0096,
              "ev": -0.059,
              "implied_prob": 0.4385,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.4481
            },
            "p_final": 0.4481,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.059,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2429,
              "best_odd": 1.64,
              "edge": -0.0106,
              "ev": -0.0965,
              "implied_prob": 0.5615,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5509
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": 0.0446,
          "ev": 0.0508,
          "implied_prob": 0.4374,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1509190,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0508,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3803,
        "draw": 0.2959,
        "home": 0.3237
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Saburtalo",
        "home": "Rustavi"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.01714,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0508,
        "implied_prob": 0.4374,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.0681,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-6.8%",
        "consensus_odds": 2.52,
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "implied_prob": 0.3616,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.3803,
        "raw_edge_display": "+1.9 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 1.9,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.3968253968253968,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.0416,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-4.2%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1509190,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-21T14:59:18.185966+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Erovnuli Liga Erovnuli Liga — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 47
2 Saburtalo 26 14 4 8 46
3 Rustavi 27 13 7 7 46
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 12 9 5 45
5 Dila Gori 27 12 4 11 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 25
10 Meshakhte 27 2 11 14 17
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Dinamo Batumi 27 46 36 +10 47
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 26 43 29 +14 45
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 43 34 +9 36
4 Dila Gori 27 38 30 +8 40
5 Samgurali 27 38 52 -14 32
6 Saburtalo 26 37 28 +9 46
7 Spaeri 27 34 43 -9 25
8 Rustavi 27 32 23 +9 46
9 Gagra 27 25 37 -12 29
10 Meshakhte 27 20 44 -24 17
Erovnuli Liga Georgia. Erovnuli Liga Ramalan