AI correctly predicted the Stjarnan win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Stjarnan Stjarnan ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stjarnan | 39.0% | 47.1% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 22.2% | +7.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Keflavik | 31.5% | 30.7% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Stjarnan's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Stjarnan win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stjarnan. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Stjarnan higher (47.1% vs model 39.0%, 8.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Stjarnan win 1–0).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stjarnan 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Keflavik 31.5%
- xG · Stjarnan 1.38 — Keflavik 1.22
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stjarnan 2.02 · Draw 4.29 · Keflavik 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Stjarnan 47.1% · Draw 22.2% · Keflavik 30.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Stjarnan 2.02 · Draw 4.29 · Keflavik 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Stjarnan 47.1% · Draw 22.2% · Keflavik 30.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Stjarnan win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Úrvalsdeild Iceland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Víkingur Reykjavík | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavík | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Breiðablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 5 | ÍA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | FH Hafnarfjörður | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 12 | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 74 | 49 | +25 | 44 |
| 2 | Víkingur Reykjavík | 22 | 67 | 21 | +46 | 53 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavík | 22 | 56 | 42 | +14 | 45 |
| 4 | Breiðablik | 22 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 30 |
| 5 | Stjarnan | 22 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 28 |
| 6 | ÍA Akranes | 22 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 30 |
| 7 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 20 |
| 9 | Keflavik | 22 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 28 |
| 10 | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjörður | 22 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 21 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 21 |
