AI correctly predicted the Fram Reykjavík win.
The match finished 3–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Fram Reykjavík Fram Reykjavík ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Fram Reykjavík win 3–4).
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Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jun 15, 2026 · 18:24 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · KA Akureyri 1.34 — Fram Reykjavík 1.26
-
Jun 15, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fram Reykjavík win · 3–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Fram Reykjavík win · KA Akureyri 3–4 Fram Reykjavík
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth": "5/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +1.4%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.57,
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"model_prob_pct": 36.3,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
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"label": "KA Akureyri",
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"outcome": "home"
},
{
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{
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"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.99,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.99,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.32,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"market_prob_pct": 44.89,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 44.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean Fram Reykjav\u00edk, but the market prices them higher (44.9% vs model 36.3%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.57,
"hero_label": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +1.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Fram Reykjav\u00edk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Fram Reykjav\u00edk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Fram Reykjav\u00edk above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 1.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 8.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.7 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.7,
"max_prob_pct": 36.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.62,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "KA Akureyri",
"market_prob_pct": 31.72,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.05,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.38,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.32,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fram Reykjav\u00edk",
"market_prob_pct": 44.89,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fram Reykjav\u00edk (44.9%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +1.4%, 5/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Fram Reykjav\u00edk, Market \u2192 Fram Reykjav\u00edk, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 47.17,
"closing_odds": 2.12,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 47.17,
"entry_odds": 2.12,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +1.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 1.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Net move flat on Draw (1.4%), but intraday swing reached 10.0% \u2014 price repriced then reverted.",
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"away_team_id": 2117,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2117.webp",
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"league_name": "\u00darvalsdeild Iceland",
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"code": "clear_edge",
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}
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Langgan Sekarang
Úrvalsdeild Iceland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Víkingur Reykjavík | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavík | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Breiðablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 5 | ÍA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | FH Hafnarfjörður | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 12 | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 74 | 49 | +25 | 44 |
| 2 | Víkingur Reykjavík | 22 | 67 | 21 | +46 | 53 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavík | 22 | 56 | 42 | +14 | 45 |
| 4 | Breiðablik | 22 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 30 |
| 5 | Stjarnan | 22 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 28 |
| 6 | ÍA Akranes | 22 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 30 |
| 7 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 20 |
| 9 | Keflavik | 22 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 28 |
| 10 | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjörður | 22 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 21 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 21 |
