AI correctly predicted the Kansas City W win.
The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Kansas City W Kansas City W ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2, 1-2 5-1 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.02) — 6 goals materialised
- Kansas City W attacking xG significantly stronger (2.42 vs 1.60)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Kansas City W win 5–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Kansas City W 2.42 — Bay FC 1.60
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kansas City W win · 5–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (79%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Kansas City W win · Kansas City W 5–1 Bay FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1656,
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],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"alert_team": "Bay FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
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"model_prob_pct": 54.9,
"model_team": "Kansas City W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2381,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kansas City W at 54.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kansas City W as the value side (54.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kansas City W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1656,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5495,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 79.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 79% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.82"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.82
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 66,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (79%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.6,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 79.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.42,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.42,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.60 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +79%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"steam_team": "Bay FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2381,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kansas City W at 54.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kansas City W as the value side (54.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kansas City W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1656,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5495,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 79.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 79% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.82"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.82
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kansas City W 2.42 xG vs Bay FC 1.60 \u2192 Kansas City W 54.9%",
"Market Steam: Bay FC \u2193 -8.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kansas City W, but sharp money moved toward Bay FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.94,
"label": "Kansas City W",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 21.0,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 24.06,
"label": "Bay FC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.0,
"fair_prob": 76.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.0,
"fair_prob": 23.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.03,
"fair_prob": 73.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.03,
"fair_prob": 26.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Kansas City W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 61.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.6,
"model_prob_pct": 54.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kansas City W 2.42 xG vs Bay FC 1.60 \u2192 Kansas City W 54.9%",
"Market Steam: Bay FC \u2193 -8.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Kansas City W, but sharp money moved toward Bay FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Bay FC odds shortened \u2193 -8.8%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 30.9 pp (at 54.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 30.9,
"max_prob_pct": 54.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kansas City W",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bay FC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Kansas City W (54.9%).",
"Bay FC has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -8.8%, 3/8).",
"The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.09,
"entry_odds": 4.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Bay FC (8.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.54",
"4.33"
],
"display": "5.15 \u2192 4.20 \u2192 4.33",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 49m",
"pick_team": "Bay FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
4.33
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Bay FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Market moved toward Bay FC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Bay FC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "Bay FC",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Bay FC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bay-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bay FC",
"away_team_id": 22943,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22943.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bay FC",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Bay FC",
"away_team_public_id": "3ticbKbERpOVdx",
"away_team_slug": "bay-fc",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508567,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Kansas City W",
"home_team_id": 16487,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16487.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kansas City W",
"home_team_public_id": "2ohGTudqLqqiAw",
"home_team_slug": "kansas-city-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kansas-city-w",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "NWSL Wanita",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "NWSL Wanita",
"league_public_id": "2ZcWd6nHxKtiNe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 22:30:00",
"public_id": "2lM0U6atihfQw1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kansas City",
"venue_name": "CPKC Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1821,
"best_odd": 4.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0614,
"implied_prob": 0.1807,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1807,
"draw": 0.2045,
"home": 0.6148
},
"model_prob": 0.2404,
"p_final": 0.1916
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1983,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.1098,
"implied_prob": 0.2045,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1807,
"draw": 0.2045,
"home": 0.6148
},
"model_prob": 0.2101,
"p_final": 0.2056
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5412,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0354,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.6148,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1807,
"draw": 0.2045,
"home": 0.6148
},
"model_prob": 0.5495,
"p_final": 0.5795
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.15,
"edge": 0.0462,
"ev": 0.2381,
"implied_prob": 0.1942,
"model_prob": 0.2404
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 5.0,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": 0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.2,
"model_prob": 0.2101
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0957,
"ev": -0.1483,
"implied_prob": 0.6452,
"model_prob": 0.5495
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.176,
"alpha_yes": 0.1936,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1403,
"edge_yes": 0.1403,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3664,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1693,
"ev_yes": 0.2291,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0717,
"implied_no": 0.4043,
"implied_yes": 0.5957,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.176,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": -0.0256,
"ev": -0.1693,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"model_prob": 0.264,
"p_final": 0.3837
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1936,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": -0.0717,
"implied_prob": 0.5907,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"p_final": 0.6188
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3837,
"p_final_yes": 0.6188,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2027,
"alpha_under": 0.1474,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.5,
"edge_over": 0.12,
"edge_under": -0.12,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1475,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0771,
"ev_under": -0.3232,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1553,
"implied_over": 0.645,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6443,
"implied_under": 0.355,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3557,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2027,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": -0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.6443,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6688
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1474,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1553,
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3379
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6688,
"p_final_under": 0.3379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2381,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2291,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2291,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2381,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kansas City W at 54.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 61.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kansas City W as the value side (54.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kansas City W",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_conflict"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-1.5)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": false,
"value": "failed"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Bay FC, but the model still strongly favours Kansas City W.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1656,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5495,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 79.3,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 79% vs league baseline",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.82"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -1.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.82
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.736,
"draw_prob": 0.2101,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5495,
"over_prob": 0.765,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"under_prob": 0.235,
"xg_diff": 0.82
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0354,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.6148,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5495,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kansas City W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1936,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0281,
"market_prob": 0.5907,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.736,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.176,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": -0.0256,
"ev": -0.1693,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"model_prob": 0.264,
"p_final": 0.3837
},
"p_final": 0.6188,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0717,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1936,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": -0.0717,
"implied_prob": 0.5907,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"p_final": 0.6188
}
},
"edge": 0.1403,
"ev": 0.2291,
"implied_prob": 0.5957,
"model_prob": 0.736,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2027,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.38,
"edge": 0.0245,
"market_prob": 0.6443,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2027,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": -0.0771,
"implied_prob": 0.6443,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6688
},
"p_final": 0.6688,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0771,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1474,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1553,
"implied_prob": 0.3557,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3379
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.12,
"ev": 0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.645,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508567,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2291,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2404,
"draw": 0.2101,
"home": 0.5495
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.645,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1475,
"implied_prob": 0.645,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bay FC",
"home": "Kansas City W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.19391,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2291,
"implied_prob": 0.5957,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.736,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1656,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6148,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5495,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6944444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2087,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508567,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T19:43:47.634035+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
NWSL Wanita — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 51 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Utah Royals W | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 46 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns W | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 8 | North Carolina Courage W | 27 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 42 |
| 9 | Seattle Reign FC | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 40 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 33 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 14 | Bay FC | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage W | 27 | 50 | 39 | +11 | 42 |
| 2 | Kansas City W | 27 | 48 | 38 | +10 | 44 |
| 3 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 4 | Utah Royals W | 27 | 44 | 35 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Portland Thorns W | 26 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave W | 27 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 51 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Orlando Pride W | 27 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Racing Louisville W | 27 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 24 |
| 11 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 12 | Seattle Reign FC | 27 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 40 |
| 13 | Houston Dash W | 26 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 30 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 27 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave W | 27 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 51 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 27 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride W | 27 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 33 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage W | 27 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 42 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | Seattle Reign FC | 27 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals W | 27 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 46 |
| 9 | Kansas City W | 27 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 44 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit W | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns W | 26 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 43 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville W | 27 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 24 |
| 14 | Houston Dash W | 26 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 30 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars W | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
