The model missed the final outcome (Ulsan Hyundai FC win 3–1).
The model had projected FC Anyang at 36.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 FC Anyang Ulsan Hyundai FC ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 33.3% | 48.1% | -14.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.5% | 25.7% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
| FC Anyang | 36.2% | 26.2% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Ulsan Hyundai FC's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 14.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Ulsan Hyundai FC win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Ulsan Hyundai FC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned FC Anyang; match finished Ulsan Hyundai FC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FC Anyang by 14.7 percentage points (50.9% vs model 36.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ulsan Hyundai FC 33.3% · Draw 30.5% · FC Anyang 36.2%
- xG · Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.21 — FC Anyang 1.27
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.00 · Draw 3.70 · FC Anyang 3.80
- Implied 1X2 · Ulsan Hyundai FC 48.4% · Draw 26.1% · FC Anyang 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.01 · Draw 3.76 · FC Anyang 3.68
- Implied 1X2 · Ulsan Hyundai FC 48.1% · Draw 25.7% · FC Anyang 26.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ulsan Hyundai FC win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
9/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.01
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ulsan Hyundai FC win · Ulsan Hyundai FC 3–1 FC Anyang
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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"home_score_rate": 70.2,
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"pick": "Yes",
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"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.27,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
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"away": 0,
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ulsan Hyundai FC or FC Anyang",
"prob": 69.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 69.5
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 30.5,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.48,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
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"over_prob": 45.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.9,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 33.3,
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "FC Anyang Win",
"model_prob": 36.2,
"odds": 3.68
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "FC Anyang",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 26.25,
"draw": 25.69,
"home": 48.06
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 10:29:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-02 09:59:46",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_a",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.79,
"model_vs_closing": [
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"gap_pp": -14.74,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.69,
"gap_pp": 4.78,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 30.47
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.25,
"gap_pp": 9.96,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.21
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.36,
"gap_pp": -10.26,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 45.1
},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
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"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
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"most_likely": {
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}
},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"authority_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0595,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.9,
"text": "+5.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FC Anyang",
"sort_key": 10203.55,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
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"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 45.1,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 54.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev_available": false,
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"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 47.9,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 52.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"alert_team": "FC Anyang",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.73,
"hero_label": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"market_prob_pct": 26.2,
"market_team": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"model_prob_pct": 36.2,
"model_team": "FC Anyang",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Anyang)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Anyang)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0595,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3326,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees FC Anyang at 36.2% vs market 26.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies FC Anyang as the stronger side (36.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Anyang",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side FC Anyang \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1507021 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Anyang).",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0595,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -5.9,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "10/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.73,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.27,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"steam_team": "FC Anyang",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Anyang)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Anyang)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0595,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3326,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees FC Anyang at 36.2% vs market 26.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies FC Anyang as the stronger side (36.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Anyang",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side FC Anyang \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1507021 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Anyang).",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0595,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -5.9,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.21 xG vs FC Anyang 1.27 \u2192 FC Anyang 36.2%",
"Market: Ulsan Hyundai FC ~26.2% implied",
"Market Steam: FC Anyang \u2193 -7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Anyang with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.73,
"fair_prob": 33.33,
"label": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"market_prob": 48.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.77,
"fair_prob": 30.46,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.95,
"fair_prob": 36.2,
"label": "FC Anyang",
"market_prob": 26.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 52.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 47.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.33,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.06,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FC Anyang"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ulsan Hyundai FC\u0027s win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 14.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FC Anyang",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "FC Anyang \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.21 xG vs FC Anyang 1.27 \u2192 FC Anyang 36.2%",
"Market: Ulsan Hyundai FC ~26.2% implied",
"Market Steam: FC Anyang \u2193 -7.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FC Anyang with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.73,
"hero_label": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "FC Anyang odds shortened \u2193 -7.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on FC Anyang, with odds shortening by 7.5%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Ulsan Hyundai FC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on FC Anyang \u2014 odds shortened by 7.5%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Ulsan Hyundai FC than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on FC Anyang, with odds shortening by 7.5%.",
"Buying interest on FC Anyang \u2014 odds shortened by 7.5%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Ulsan Hyundai FC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, FC Anyang has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.5%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (10/14) supports the current market view on FC Anyang."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ulsan Hyundai FC higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.73,
"edge_pp": -14.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.33,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"market_prob_pct": 48.06,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.77,
"edge_pp": 4.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.69,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.95,
"edge_pp": 9.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Anyang",
"market_prob_pct": 26.25,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on FC Anyang \u2014 odds shortened by 7.5%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ulsan Hyundai FC (26.2%).",
"However, FC Anyang has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -7.5%, 10/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 FC Anyang, Market \u2192 Ulsan Hyundai FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 FC Anyang.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.75,
"closing_odds": 2.01,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.75,
"entry_odds": 2.01,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.1
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 121h 16m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on FC Anyang (7.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.84",
"3.68"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 3.42 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 121h 16m",
"pick_team": "FC Anyang",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.42"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
3.68,
3.8,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,18.0 37.3,11.3 56.0,16.9",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.68"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/14 sportsbooks on FC Anyang",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "FC Anyang",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FC Anyang",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "FC Anyang",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "FC Anyang",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Anyang",
"away_team_id": 2748,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2748.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Anyang",
"away_team_slug": "fc-anyang",
"country_code": "KR",
"country_display_name": "South-Korea",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/kr.svg",
"country_id": 144,
"country_name": "South-Korea",
"fixture_id": 1507021,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "South-Korea",
"home_team_display_name": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"home_team_id": 2767,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2767.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ulsan Hyundai FC",
"home_team_slug": "ulsan-hyundai-fc",
"league_country": "South-Korea",
"league_country_display": "South-Korea",
"league_display_name": "K Liga 1 Korea Selatan",
"league_id": 292,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/292.webp",
"league_name": "K Liga 1 Korea Selatan",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-02 10:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ulsan",
"venue_name": "Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2552,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0595,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2625,
"draw": 0.2569,
"home": 0.4806
},
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"p_final": 0.2879
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2785,
"best_odd": 3.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": 0.016,
"implied_prob": 0.2569,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2625,
"draw": 0.2569,
"home": 0.4806
},
"model_prob": 0.3047,
"p_final": 0.2702
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3505,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0517,
"ev": -0.1379,
"implied_prob": 0.4806,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2625,
"draw": 0.2569,
"home": 0.4806
},
"model_prob": 0.3332,
"p_final": 0.4289
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.0904,
"ev": 0.3326,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.3621
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.76,
"edge": 0.0388,
"ev": 0.1457,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"model_prob": 0.3047
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.1644,
"ev": -0.3304,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.3332
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.48,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0595,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3326,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0595,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Anyang)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0595,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3326,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees FC Anyang at 36.2% vs market 26.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies FC Anyang as the stronger side (36.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Anyang",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side FC Anyang \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.68 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1507021 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.68 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FC Anyang).",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0595,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -5.9,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.521,
"draw_prob": 0.3047,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3621,
"over_prob": 0.451,
"total_xg": 2.48,
"under_prob": 0.549,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0595,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FC Anyang"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.521,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.549,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1507021,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0595,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3621,
"draw": 0.3047,
"home": 0.3332
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Anyang",
"home": "Ulsan Hyundai FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.023699,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0595,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "FC Anyang",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0595,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.68,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3621,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2717391304347826,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+33.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1507021,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-02T10:29:19.025930+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Ulsan Hyundai FC & FC Anyang!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
K Liga 1 Korea Selatan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 62 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 47 |
| 3 | Jeju United FC | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 29 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 42 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Pohang Steelers | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 9 | Incheon United | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 38 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 5 | 18 | 7 | 33 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 30 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 15 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 30 | 56 | 25 | +31 | 62 |
| 2 | Daejeon Citizen | 30 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 40 |
| 3 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 30 | 45 | 40 | +5 | 47 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Anyang | 30 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 38 |
| 6 | Gangwon FC | 29 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | Incheon United | 29 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 38 |
| 8 | Jeju United FC | 30 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 46 |
| 9 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 30 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
| 11 | Pohang Steelers | 30 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 40 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 30 | 21 | 63 | -42 | 15 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Incheon United | 29 | 2.3 | 0.7 | +1.6 | 38 |
| 2 | Pohang Steelers | 30 | 1.6 | 0.6 | +1.0 | 40 |
| 3 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 30 | 2.0 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 47 |
| 4 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 33 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 29 | 0.9 | 0.5 | +0.4 | 42 |
| 6 | Jeju United FC | 30 | 0.9 | 0.7 | +0.2 | 46 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 30 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Seoul | 30 | 0.5 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 62 |
| 9 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 30 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 32 |
| 10 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 | 1.3 | 2.0 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Gwangju FC | 30 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -1.0 | 15 |
| 12 | FC Anyang | 30 | 0.7 | 2.3 | -1.6 | 38 |
