AI correctly predicted the Universidad Católica win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Universidad Católica Universidad Católica ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.69) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Universidad Católica win 2–3).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 20:06 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Palestino 1.33 — Universidad Católica 1.36
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Universidad Católica win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Universidad Católica win · Palestino 2–3 Universidad Católica
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
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{
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 6.1,
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}
},
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
},
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},
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},
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"tier": "lean",
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1198,
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -12.0,
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},
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},
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"sort_key": 1789.95,
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"alert_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"model_prob_pct": 36.2,
"model_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0565,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0602,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Universidad Cat\u00f3lica at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Universidad Cat\u00f3lica as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1198,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3614,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1796,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "10/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"steam_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0565,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0602,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Universidad Cat\u00f3lica at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Universidad Cat\u00f3lica as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1198,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3614,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1796,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Palestino 1.33 xG vs Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 1.36 \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 36.2%",
"Market Drift: Universidad Cat\u00f3lica odds \u2191 +11.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 34.78,
"label": "Palestino",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.06,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 36.16,
"label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.21,
"fair_prob": 50.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.21,
"fair_prob": 49.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.75,
"fair_prob": 56.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.75,
"fair_prob": 43.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Palestino 1.33 xG vs Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 1.36 \u2192 Universidad Cat\u00f3lica 36.2%",
"Market Drift: Universidad Cat\u00f3lica odds \u2191 +11.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica odds lengthened \u2191 +11.9%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.4 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.4,
"max_prob_pct": 36.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.78,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Palestino",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.16,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Universidad Cat\u00f3lica (36.2%).",
"Universidad Cat\u00f3lica odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +11.9%, 10/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.55,
"entry_odds": 2.35,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 53m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Universidad Cat\u00f3lica (11.9%, 10/14) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.35",
"2.23",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.37 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 53m",
"pick_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.37"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/14",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "u-catolica",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"away_team_id": 2994,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2994.webp",
"away_team_name": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"away_team_public_id": "4w0adsf4a2zd4j",
"away_team_slug": "u-catolica",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1505528,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "Palestino",
"home_team_id": 2318,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2318.webp",
"home_team_name": "Palestino",
"home_team_public_id": "1OZazWE4s1Vjwi",
"home_team_slug": "palestino",
"ht.home_team_slug": "palestino",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Chile",
"league_id": 265,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/265.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Chile",
"league_public_id": "3kZTIhSPL58g9x",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 23:00:00",
"public_id": "2G3hFZ8PrtIKLv",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Santiago de Chile",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4194,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.4068,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4068,
"draw": 0.2748,
"home": 0.3184
},
"model_prob": 0.3614,
"p_final": 0.3877
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.2748,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4068,
"draw": 0.2748,
"home": 0.3184
},
"model_prob": 0.291,
"p_final": 0.2796
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4303,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.3184,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4068,
"draw": 0.2748,
"home": 0.3184
},
"model_prob": 0.3476,
"p_final": 0.331
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.37,
"edge": -0.0605,
"ev": -0.1435,
"implied_prob": 0.4219,
"model_prob": 0.3614
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.55,
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": 0.0331,
"implied_prob": 0.2817,
"model_prob": 0.291
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.05,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": 0.0602,
"implied_prob": 0.3279,
"model_prob": 0.3476
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1816,
"alpha_yes": 0.2497,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0275,
"edge_yes": -0.0275,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0051,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0646,
"ev_yes": -0.1161,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0855,
"implied_no": 0.4095,
"implied_yes": 0.5905,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1816,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"p_final": 0.4157
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2497,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0855,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.563,
"p_final": 0.5825
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4157,
"p_final_yes": 0.5825,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2433,
"alpha_under": 0.2212,
"best_over_odd": 1.76,
"best_under_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.705,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.055,
"edge_over": -0.0421,
"edge_under": 0.0421,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.113,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0858,
"ev_under": 0.0565,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0488,
"implied_over": 0.5461,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5465,
"implied_under": 0.4539,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4535,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2433,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.5465,
"model_prob": 0.504,
"p_final": 0.5362
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2212,
"best_odd": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"p_final": 0.4629
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5362,
"p_final_under": 0.4629,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.69,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0565,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0602,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0565,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0565,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0602,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 26,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Universidad Cat\u00f3lica at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Universidad Cat\u00f3lica as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "26 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Universidad Cat\u00f3lica, but the model still strongly favours Universidad Cat\u00f3lica.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1198,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3614,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1796,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.563,
"draw_prob": 0.291,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3614,
"over_prob": 0.504,
"total_xg": 2.69,
"under_prob": 0.496,
"xg_diff": 0.03
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1198,
"implied_prob": 0.4068,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3614,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1816,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0047,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.437,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1816,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"p_final": 0.4157
},
"p_final": 0.4157,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2497,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0855,
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"p_final": 0.5825
}
},
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.0051,
"implied_prob": 0.4095,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2212,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0094,
"market_prob": 0.4535,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0858,
"implied_prob": 0.5465,
"model_prob": 0.504,
"p_final": 0.5362
},
"p_final": 0.4629,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0488,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2212,
"best_odd": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
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"p_final": 0.4629
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0421,
"ev": 0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4539,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505528,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0565,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3614,
"draw": 0.291,
"home": 0.3476
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Universidad Cat\u00f3lica",
"home": "Palestino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028024,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.4539,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1198,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4068,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3614,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1796,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505528,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T20:06:04.156734+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Chile — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 42 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Viña del Mar | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 5 | Palestino | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 36 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 7 | Ñublense | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 9 | Deportes La Serena | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 30 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 11 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 13 | Huachipato | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 25 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepción | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 16 | Unión La Calera | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad Católica | 23 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 42 |
| 2 | Colo Colo | 23 | 48 | 22 | +26 | 54 |
| 3 | Deportes Limache | 23 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 33 |
| 4 | Everton de Viña del Mar | 23 | 37 | 25 | +12 | 36 |
| 5 | Palestino | 23 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 36 |
| 6 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 42 |
| 7 | Deportes La Serena | 23 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 30 |
| 8 | Cobresal | 23 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 24 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 22 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 29 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 21 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Ñublense | 23 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 32 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 23 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 27 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
| 14 | Concepción | 23 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 31 |
| 15 | Unión La Calera | 23 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 17 |
| 16 | Universidad de Concepción | 22 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 22 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad Católica | 23 | 1.5 | 1.2 | +0.3 | 42 |
| 2 | Ñublense | 23 | 1.2 | 1.5 | -0.3 | 32 |
| 3 | Colo Colo | 23 | — | — | — | 54 |
| 4 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | — | — | — | 42 |
| 5 | Everton de Viña del Mar | 23 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 6 | Palestino | 23 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 7 | Deportes Limache | 23 | — | — | — | 33 |
| 8 | Concepción | 23 | — | — | — | 31 |
| 9 | Deportes La Serena | 23 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 22 | — | — | — | 29 |
| 11 | Audax Italiano | 23 | — | — | — | 28 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 23 | — | — | — | 27 |
| 13 | Huachipato | 21 | — | — | — | 25 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 23 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepción | 22 | — | — | — | 22 |
| 16 | Unión La Calera | 23 | — | — | — | 17 |
