AI correctly predicted the Palestino win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Palestino Palestino ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palestino | 39.5% | 53.0% | -13.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 24.9% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Universidad de Concepción | 31.6% | 22.1% | +9.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Palestino's win probability at 53.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Palestino win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Palestino than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.69) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Palestino higher (53.0% vs model 39.5%, 13.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Palestino win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Palestino 39.4% · Draw 29.0% · Universidad de Concepción 31.6%
- xG · Palestino 1.43 — Universidad de Concepción 1.26
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Palestino 1.81 · Draw 3.85 · Universidad de Concepción 4.34
- Implied 1X2 · Palestino 53.0% · Draw 24.9% · Universidad de Concepción 22.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Palestino 1.81 · Draw 3.85 · Universidad de Concepción 4.34
- Implied 1X2 · Palestino 53.0% · Draw 24.9% · Universidad de Concepción 22.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Palestino win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
32/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.81
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Palestino win · Palestino 2–1 Universidad de Concepción
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
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},
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"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
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"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"alert_team": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.54,
"hero_label": "Palestino",
"market_prob_pct": 53.0,
"market_team": "Palestino",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "Palestino",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0664,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3734,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Palestino at 39.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Palestino as the value side (39.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Palestino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Palestino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +37% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1505521 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +37% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1586,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3937,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2874,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "11/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9166666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.54,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.54,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 6.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.43,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.43,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"steam_team": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0664,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3734,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Palestino at 39.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Palestino as the value side (39.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Palestino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Palestino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +37% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1505521 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +37% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1586,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3937,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2874,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Palestino 1.43 xG vs Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n 1.26 \u2192 Palestino 39.5%",
"Market: Palestino ~53.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Palestino, but sharp money moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.54,
"fair_prob": 39.45,
"label": "Palestino",
"market_prob": 52.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.03,
"fair_prob": 28.94,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.51,
"fair_prob": 31.61,
"label": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"market_prob": 22.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.25,
"fair_prob": 50.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.25,
"fair_prob": 49.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.83,
"fair_prob": 56.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.83,
"fair_prob": 43.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.45,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Palestino",
"market_prob_pct": 52.99,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Palestino\u0027s win probability at 53.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.54,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Palestino",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Palestino 1.43 xG vs Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n 1.26 \u2192 Palestino 39.5%",
"Market: Palestino ~53.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n \u2193 -20.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Palestino, but sharp money moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.54,
"hero_label": "Palestino",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n odds shortened \u2193 -20.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, with odds shortening by 20.0%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Palestino than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n \u2014 odds shortened by 20.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Palestino than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, with odds shortening by 20.0%.",
"Buying interest on Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n \u2014 odds shortened by 20.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Palestino more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 20.0%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/12) supports the current market view on Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.54,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.8 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.8,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Palestino",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Palestino higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.54,
"edge_pp": -13.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.45,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Palestino",
"market_prob_pct": 52.99,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.03,
"edge_pp": 4.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.51,
"edge_pp": 9.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"market_prob_pct": 22.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n \u2014 odds shortened by 20.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Palestino (53.0%).",
"However, Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -20.0%, 11/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Palestino, Market \u2192 Palestino, Recent sharp money \u2192 Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.25,
"closing_odds": 1.81,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.25,
"entry_odds": 1.81,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "11/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 29m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"11/12 books synchronized on Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n (20.0% steam, score 96) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.25",
"4.72",
"4.20"
],
"display": "5.60 \u2192 4.00 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 87h 29m",
"pick_team": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.25,
4.34,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,15.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.25,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n \u2193 -20.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/12",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"steam_score": 96,
"steam_team_name": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"away_team_id": 2324,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2324.webp",
"away_team_name": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"away_team_public_id": "2450Neh5df8Kwp",
"away_team_slug": "universidad-de-concepcion",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1505521,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "Palestino",
"home_team_id": 2318,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2318.webp",
"home_team_name": "Palestino",
"home_team_public_id": "1OZazWE4s1Vjwi",
"home_team_slug": "palestino",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Chile",
"league_id": 265,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/265.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Chile",
"league_public_id": "3kZTIhSPL58g9x",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 22:30:00",
"public_id": "5C0qhfTR7DMmRA",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Santiago de Chile",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1714,
"best_odd": 4.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": 0.0301,
"implied_prob": 0.221,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.221,
"draw": 0.2491,
"home": 0.5299
},
"model_prob": 0.3165,
"p_final": 0.2373
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2817,
"best_odd": 3.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": 0.0033,
"implied_prob": 0.2491,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.221,
"draw": 0.2491,
"home": 0.5299
},
"model_prob": 0.2899,
"p_final": 0.2606
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4774,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.065,
"ev": -0.1586,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.221,
"draw": 0.2491,
"home": 0.5299
},
"model_prob": 0.3937,
"p_final": 0.4649
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.34,
"edge": 0.086,
"ev": 0.3734,
"implied_prob": 0.2304,
"model_prob": 0.3165
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.85,
"edge": 0.0301,
"ev": 0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.2597,
"model_prob": 0.2899
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.1588,
"ev": -0.2874,
"implied_prob": 0.5525,
"model_prob": 0.3937
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.234,
"alpha_yes": 0.2574,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.72,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0083,
"edge_yes": 0.0083,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0562,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0768,
"ev_yes": -0.0351,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.071,
"implied_no": 0.4473,
"implied_yes": 0.5527,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.234,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0015,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.439,
"p_final": 0.4439
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2574,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"p_final": 0.5563
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4439,
"p_final_yes": 0.5563,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2425,
"alpha_under": 0.2205,
"best_over_odd": 1.78,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.09,
"edge_over": -0.0425,
"edge_under": 0.0425,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1029,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0751,
"ev_under": 0.0664,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.036,
"implied_over": 0.5465,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5486,
"implied_under": 0.4535,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4514,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2425,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.5486,
"model_prob": 0.504,
"p_final": 0.5378
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"p_final": 0.4613
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5378,
"p_final_under": 0.4613,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.69,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0664,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3734,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0664,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0664,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3734,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Palestino at 39.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Palestino as the value side (39.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Palestino",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Palestino \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +37% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1505521 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +37% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n, but the model still strongly favours Palestino.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1586,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3937,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2874,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 5.9,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.17"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.17
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.561,
"draw_prob": 0.2899,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3937,
"over_prob": 0.504,
"total_xg": 2.69,
"under_prob": 0.496,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0301,
"implied_prob": 0.221,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3165,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.065,
"ev": -0.1586,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3937,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Palestino"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2574,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0016,
"market_prob": 0.5547,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.561,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.234,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0015,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.4453,
"model_prob": 0.439,
"p_final": 0.4439
},
"p_final": 0.5563,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.071,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2574,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.5547,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"p_final": 0.5563
}
},
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.5527,
"model_prob": 0.561,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0098,
"market_prob": 0.4514,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2425,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0108,
"ev": -0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.5486,
"model_prob": 0.504,
"p_final": 0.5378
},
"p_final": 0.4613,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.036,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2205,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"p_final": 0.4613
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0425,
"ev": 0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"model_prob": 0.496,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505521,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0664,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3165,
"draw": 0.2899,
"home": 0.3937
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Universidad de Concepci\u00f3n",
"home": "Palestino"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.032934,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0664,
"implied_prob": 0.4535,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.496,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1586,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3937,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5524861878453039,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2874,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505521,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T22:29:11.013882+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Palestino & Universidad de Concepción!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Chile — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 42 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Viña del Mar | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 5 | Palestino | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 36 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 7 | Ñublense | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 9 | Deportes La Serena | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 30 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 11 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 13 | Huachipato | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 25 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepción | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 16 | Unión La Calera | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad Católica | 23 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 42 |
| 2 | Colo Colo | 23 | 48 | 22 | +26 | 54 |
| 3 | Deportes Limache | 23 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 33 |
| 4 | Everton de Viña del Mar | 23 | 37 | 25 | +12 | 36 |
| 5 | Palestino | 23 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 36 |
| 6 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 42 |
| 7 | Deportes La Serena | 23 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 30 |
| 8 | Cobresal | 23 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 24 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 22 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 29 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 21 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Ñublense | 23 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 32 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 23 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 27 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
| 14 | Concepción | 23 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 31 |
| 15 | Unión La Calera | 23 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 17 |
| 16 | Universidad de Concepción | 22 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 22 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad Católica | 23 | 1.5 | 1.2 | +0.3 | 42 |
| 2 | Ñublense | 23 | 1.2 | 1.5 | -0.3 | 32 |
| 3 | Colo Colo | 23 | — | — | — | 54 |
| 4 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | — | — | — | 42 |
| 5 | Everton de Viña del Mar | 23 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 6 | Palestino | 23 | — | — | — | 36 |
| 7 | Deportes Limache | 23 | — | — | — | 33 |
| 8 | Concepción | 23 | — | — | — | 31 |
| 9 | Deportes La Serena | 23 | — | — | — | 30 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 22 | — | — | — | 29 |
| 11 | Audax Italiano | 23 | — | — | — | 28 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 23 | — | — | — | 27 |
| 13 | Huachipato | 21 | — | — | — | 25 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 23 | — | — | — | 24 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepción | 22 | — | — | — | 22 |
| 16 | Unión La Calera | 23 | — | — | — | 17 |
