AI correctly predicted the Järfälla win.
The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Järfälla Järfälla ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Järfälla | 36.6% | 27.8% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.0% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Karlberg | 33.8% | 48.2% | -14.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Karlberg's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Järfälla win 5–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Karlberg than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Järfälla higher (51.1% vs model 36.6%, 14.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Järfälla win 5–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Järfälla 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Karlberg 33.8%
- xG · Järfälla 1.33 — Karlberg 1.27
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Järfälla 3.30 · Draw 3.82 · Karlberg 1.90
- Implied 1X2 · Järfälla 27.8% · Draw 24.0% · Karlberg 48.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Järfälla 3.30 · Draw 3.82 · Karlberg 1.90
- Implied 1X2 · Järfälla 27.8% · Draw 24.0% · Karlberg 48.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Järfälla win · 5–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
9/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Järfälla win · Järfälla 5–0 Karlberg
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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"ev": -0.0077,
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},
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"text": "-0.8%"
},
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"sort_key": 1798.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"alert_team": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.47,
"hero_label": "Karlberg",
"market_prob_pct": 27.8,
"market_team": "Karlberg",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0077,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30303030303030304,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2078,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.47,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"steam_team": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0077,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30303030303030304,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2078,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla 1.33 xG vs Karlberg 1.27 \u2192 J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla 36.6%",
"Market: Karlberg ~27.8% implied",
"Market Drift: J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla odds \u2191 +12.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.82,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"market_prob": 27.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.65,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.47,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Karlberg",
"market_prob": 48.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.38,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.38,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.27,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.27,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Karlberg",
"market_prob_pct": 48.24,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Karlberg\u0027s win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.8,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla 1.33 xG vs Karlberg 1.27 \u2192 J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla 36.6%",
"Market: Karlberg ~27.8% implied",
"Market Drift: J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla odds \u2191 +12.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.47,
"hero_label": "Karlberg",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla odds lengthened \u2191 +12.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Karlberg than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Karlberg than the current fair estimate.",
"However, J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Karlberg more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Karlberg",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Karlberg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.82,
"edge_pp": 8.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"market_prob_pct": 27.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.65,
"edge_pp": 5.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.99,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.47,
"edge_pp": -14.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Karlberg",
"market_prob_pct": 48.24,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Karlberg (27.8%).",
"However, J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +12.1%, 6/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, Market \u2192 Karlberg, while J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"closing_odds": 1.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.63,
"entry_odds": 1.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla (12.1%, 6/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.10",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 47h 30m",
"pick_team": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.9,
3.3,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.9,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/9 sportsbooks on J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"summary": "Market moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "karlberg",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Karlberg",
"away_team_id": 6682,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6682.webp",
"away_team_name": "Karlberg",
"away_team_public_id": "5umZtsHKVkiPd0",
"away_team_slug": "karlberg",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1505261,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"home_team_id": 16598,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16598.webp",
"home_team_name": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"home_team_public_id": "38gQQzSgbuFN16",
"home_team_slug": "jarfalla",
"ht.home_team_slug": "jarfalla",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_id": 563,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/563.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_public_id": "0nme5hw4ptdA6d",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 17:30:00",
"public_id": "4hWE56v3egpGLH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Jarfallavallen"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4697,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.068,
"ev": -0.2127,
"implied_prob": 0.4824,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4824,
"draw": 0.2399,
"home": 0.2777
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4143
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2745,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0242,
"implied_prob": 0.2399,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4824,
"draw": 0.2399,
"home": 0.2777
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2554
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2603,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.0077,
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4824,
"draw": 0.2399,
"home": 0.2777
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3007
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": -0.1888,
"ev": -0.3587,
"implied_prob": 0.5263,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0347,
"ev": 0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": 0.063,
"ev": 0.2077,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1578,
"alpha_yes": 0.2169,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0827,
"edge_yes": -0.0827,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0553,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1131,
"implied_no": 0.3723,
"implied_yes": 0.6277,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3856
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2169,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.6274,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6095
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3856,
"p_final_yes": 0.6095,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1984,
"alpha_under": 0.1443,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.485,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.365,
"edge_over": -0.1338,
"edge_under": 0.1338,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1268,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0426,
"implied_over": 0.6158,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6143,
"implied_under": 0.3842,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3857,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.6143,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.588
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.3857,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4048
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.588,
"p_final_under": 0.4048,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 19,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "19 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla, but the model still strongly favours J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0077,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30303030303030304,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2078,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.0077,
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.3726,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.3726,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3856
},
"p_final": 0.3856,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0553,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2169,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.6274,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6095
}
},
"edge": 0.0827,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0191,
"market_prob": 0.3857,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.6143,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.588
},
"p_final": 0.4048,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0426,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1443,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0191,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.3857,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4048
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1338,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3842,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505261,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3723,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Karlberg",
"home": "J\u00e4rf\u00e4lla"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3842,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0077,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.3,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2777,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.30303030303030304,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2078,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505261,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T17:29:20.473519+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ettan - Norra — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 42 |
| 5 | IF Karlstad | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 6 | FBK Karlstad | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 7 | Enköping | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 39 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 9 | Gefle IF | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 30 |
| 10 | Umeå FC | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 24 |
| 13 | Vasalund | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 24 |
| 14 | Piteå | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 18 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 57 | 20 | +37 | 54 |
| 2 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 45 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 45 | 32 | +13 | 46 |
| 4 | Stocksund | 24 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 14 |
| 5 | Assyriska FF | 23 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 32 |
| 6 | Arlanda | 23 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 42 |
| 7 | Enköping | 23 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 39 |
| 8 | FBK Karlstad | 23 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 39 |
| 9 | IF Karlstad | 23 | 35 | 23 | +12 | 39 |
| 10 | Vasalund | 23 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
| 11 | Järfälla | 24 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 18 |
| 12 | Umeå FC | 23 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 29 |
| 13 | Karlberg | 23 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 | Gefle IF | 23 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 30 |
| 15 | Piteå | 23 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 18 |
| 16 | Sollentuna | 24 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 24 |
