The model missed the final outcome (Piteå win 3–0).
The model had projected Karlberg at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Karlberg Piteå ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piteå | 31.5% | 25.8% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.0% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Karlberg | 39.0% | 49.2% | -10.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Karlberg's win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Piteå win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Karlberg than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Karlberg; match finished Piteå
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Karlberg by 10.2 percentage points (49.2% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Piteå 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Karlberg 39.0%
- xG · Piteå 1.22 — Karlberg 1.38
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Piteå 3.55 · Draw 3.66 · Karlberg 1.86
- Implied 1X2 · Piteå 25.8% · Draw 25.0% · Karlberg 49.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Piteå 3.55 · Draw 3.66 · Karlberg 1.86
- Implied 1X2 · Piteå 25.8% · Draw 25.0% · Karlberg 49.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Piteå win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
48/100
Betting Confidence
46/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.86
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Piteå win · Piteå 3–0 Karlberg
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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"tier": "lean",
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1815,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -18.1,
"text": "-18.1%"
},
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"max_ev": -0.0291,
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"text": "-2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Karlberg",
"sort_key": 1792.725,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -1.6%",
"alert_team": "Karlberg",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.24,
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"market_prob_pct": 49.2,
"market_team": "Karlberg",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Karlberg",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
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},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlberg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1292,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1292,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karlberg at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karlberg as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karlberg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlberg).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1815,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5376344086021505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2752,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 68,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.24,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.24,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -1.6%",
"steam_team": "Karlberg",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlberg)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlberg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1292,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1292,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karlberg at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karlberg as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karlberg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlberg).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1815,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5376344086021505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2752,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pite\u00e5 1.22 xG vs Karlberg 1.38 \u2192 Karlberg 39.0%",
"Market: Karlberg ~49.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Karlberg \u2193 -1.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Karlberg with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.7,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Pite\u00e5",
"market_prob": 25.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.53,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.24,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Karlberg",
"market_prob": 49.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.75,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.75,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Karlberg",
"market_prob_pct": 49.21,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Karlberg"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Karlberg\u0027s win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.24,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Karlberg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -10.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -10.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 68,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Karlberg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pite\u00e5 1.22 xG vs Karlberg 1.38 \u2192 Karlberg 39.0%",
"Market: Karlberg ~49.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Karlberg \u2193 -1.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Karlberg with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.24,
"hero_label": "Karlberg",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Karlberg odds shortened \u2193 -1.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Karlberg than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Karlberg.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Karlberg than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Karlberg."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Karlberg more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Karlberg (\u2193 -1.6%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.24,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Karlberg",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Karlberg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.7,
"edge_pp": 5.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pite\u00e5",
"market_prob_pct": 25.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.53,
"edge_pp": 4.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.01,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.24,
"edge_pp": -10.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Karlberg",
"market_prob_pct": 49.21,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Karlberg.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Karlberg (49.2%).",
"Karlberg has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -1.6%, 4/6).",
"Karlberg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.76,
"closing_odds": 1.86,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.76,
"entry_odds": 1.86,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.8
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 1.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Stable line on Karlberg \u2014 tracking only (1.6% vs. open).",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -1.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.86",
"1.83",
"1.80"
],
"display": "2.13 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 1.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Karlberg",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.13"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.83,
1.86,
1.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.83"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.83,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Discovery",
"phase_tip": "Early price formation \u2014 opening equilibrium still forming.",
"pick_team": "Karlberg",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "neutral",
"signal_icon": "\u2014",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.6%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Karlberg",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "tracking",
"signal_label": "Tracking",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/6",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -1.6%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"pick_team": "Karlberg",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Karlberg",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Karlberg",
"away_team_id": 6682,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6682.webp",
"away_team_name": "Karlberg",
"away_team_public_id": "5umZtsHKVkiPd0",
"away_team_slug": "karlberg",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1505247,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Pite\u00e5",
"home_team_id": 11671,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11671.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pite\u00e5",
"home_team_public_id": "3ZCDaMh4VHqq3P",
"home_team_slug": "pitea",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_id": 563,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/563.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_public_id": "0nme5hw4ptdA6d",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3t44XDbCpytZ3V",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "LF Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5078,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.052,
"ev": -0.1815,
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4921,
"draw": 0.2501,
"home": 0.2578
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4401
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2796,
"best_odd": 3.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.2501,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4921,
"draw": 0.2501,
"home": 0.2578
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2628
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2743,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.2578,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4921,
"draw": 0.2501,
"home": 0.2578
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2735
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": -0.148,
"ev": -0.2752,
"implied_prob": 0.5376,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.66,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": 0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.2732,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.55,
"edge": 0.0332,
"ev": 0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.2817,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.169,
"alpha_yes": 0.2324,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0375,
"edge_yes": -0.0375,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0669,
"ev_yes": -0.0915,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0969,
"implied_no": 0.4185,
"implied_yes": 0.5815,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.169,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0669,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4222
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2324,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5847,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5752
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4222,
"p_final_yes": 0.5752,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2171,
"alpha_under": 0.1974,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.18,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.082,
"edge_under": 0.082,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1045,
"ev_under": 0.1292,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0411,
"implied_over": 0.564,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5638,
"implied_under": 0.436,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4362,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.5638,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5461
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1974,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.4362,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4523
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5461,
"p_final_under": 0.4523,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1292,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1292,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1292,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlberg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1292,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1292,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 54,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Karlberg at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Karlberg as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Karlberg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "68 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Karlberg).",
"Decision strength: 5.9/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 68,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1815,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5376344086021505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2752,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.052,
"ev": -0.1815,
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Karlberg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.169,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0069,
"market_prob": 0.4153,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.0669,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4222
},
"p_final": 0.4222,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0669,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2324,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.5847,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0375,
"ev": 0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.4185,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1974,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0162,
"market_prob": 0.4362,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1045,
"implied_prob": 0.5638,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5461
},
"p_final": 0.4523,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0411,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 2.12,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.4362,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4523
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.082,
"ev": 0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505247,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1292,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Karlberg",
"home": "Pite\u00e5"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.046848,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.436,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1815,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4921,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-10.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -10.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5376344086021505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2752,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505247,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T12:56:28.555360+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ettan - Norra — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 42 |
| 5 | IF Karlstad | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 6 | FBK Karlstad | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 39 |
| 7 | Enköping | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 39 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 9 | Gefle IF | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 30 |
| 10 | Umeå FC | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 24 |
| 13 | Vasalund | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 24 |
| 14 | Piteå | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 18 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 24 | 57 | 20 | +37 | 54 |
| 2 | Hammarby Talang | 24 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 45 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 24 | 45 | 32 | +13 | 46 |
| 4 | Stocksund | 24 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 14 |
| 5 | Assyriska FF | 23 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 32 |
| 6 | Arlanda | 23 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 42 |
| 7 | Enköping | 23 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 39 |
| 8 | FBK Karlstad | 23 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 39 |
| 9 | IF Karlstad | 23 | 35 | 23 | +12 | 39 |
| 10 | Vasalund | 23 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
| 11 | Järfälla | 24 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 18 |
| 12 | Umeå FC | 23 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 29 |
| 13 | Karlberg | 23 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 | Gefle IF | 23 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 30 |
| 15 | Piteå | 23 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 18 |
| 16 | Sollentuna | 24 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 24 |
