Ya 53.0% · Tidak 46.9%
EV Ya -11.5% · EV No +7.9%
Condong nilai: BTTS Tidak
Penilaian Ramalan
Berhati-hatilah
- Kegemaran
- Umeå FC Kegemaran sikit
- Kebarangkalian model
- 46.3%
- Kebarangkalian pasaran
- 60.3%
- Perjanjian pasaran
- Lemah
- Pengesahan
- Amaran
Ringkasan:
Model dan pasaran bersandar pada sisi yang sama pada Umeå FC, tetapi jurang harga memerlukan berhati-hati.
Log masuk untuk melihat keputusan pertaruhan penuh
Daftar percuma untuk membuka kunci keputusan pertaruhan akhir — pasaran mana lulus, di mana +EV mungkin wujud, dan amaran steam.
Perisikan Pergerakan Pasaran
- Pergerakan semasa
- Piteå ↑ +19.0% 4.2 → 5.0
- Jenis bergerak
- ⚡ Gerakan dipimpin sharp
- Skor Stim
- 67A
Strong sharp signal - Keluasan pasaran
- 6/13
- fasa
- Penetapan harga semula tajam
- Buku rujuk
- Bet365
- Pengesahan CLV
- Waiting for Close
Pergerakan terbesar hari ini
Laluan Odds — Piteå
↔ Gerakan beransur-ansur selama 7j 59m
Buka
5.60
Rendah / Tinggi
4.20
semasa
5.00
Naratif Pasaran
Bet365 memimpin penetapan harga pada Piteå (19.0%) — buku tajam bergerak sebelum pasaran lebih luas mengikuti.
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation.
Audit Pasaran
- Perjanjian pasaran
- Lemah
- Pengesahan
- Amaran
- Jurang terbesar
- Umeå FC -14.0 pp
- Keluasan
- 6/13
- Aktiviti pasaran semasa
- Piteå odds dipanjangkan ↑ +19.0%.
Anggaran saksama berbeza dengan ketara daripada harga pasaran semasa. Ini mungkin mencerminkan ketidaksetujuan yang tulen atau input penilaian yang tidak lengkap.
Penilaian Pasaran
Pasaran secara material lebih optimistik tentang {pasukan} daripada anggaran saksama semasa.
Walau bagaimanapun, Piteå telah menyaksikan hanyut — kemungkinan dipanjangkan dengan 19.0%, mencadangkan sokongan yang lemah. Pengesahan kekal terhad (6/13 buku), mencadangkan minat awal dan bukannya pergerakan pasaran yang luas.
Hanyut dari Piteå — kemungkinan dipanjangkan dengan 19.0% (mengurangkan sokongan).
- Pelabur mungkin memasukkan maklumat yang tidak dicerminkan sepenuhnya dalam model garis dasar.
- Konteks khusus kejohanan boleh mengalihkan harga pasaran.
| Hasil | Adil | Pasaran | Tepi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Umeå FC | 46.32% | 60.31% | -14.0 pp |
| Seri | 28.73% | 21.41% | +7.3 pp |
| Piteå | 24.96% | 18.28% | +6.7 pp |
Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.
Keputusan pertaruhan akhir
Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.
- Tiada nilai pada 1X2 (Umeå FC lwn. odds semasa)
- Nilai yang mungkin: Kurang 2.5 (+25%+ EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
- Nilai yang mungkin: BTTS Tidak (+7.9% EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Sabitan sederhana (6.5/10) — satu baris terpilih, bukan parlay berbilang pasaran.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
Pilihan utama (+EV tertinggi)
Kurang 2.5
— Nilai
Umeå FC · Kebarangkalian model 46.3%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 60.3%
EV garisan konsensus: -19.5%
Garis pembuat taruhan terbaik yang tersedia: -3.6% EV
Sesetengah odds outlier pembuat taruhan mungkin masih menunjukkan nilai teori kecil berbanding garisan konsensus di atas.
Paling berkemungkinan
1-1
Kebarangkalian 12.2%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Nilai peluang — Sekurang-kurangnya satu pasaran menunjukkan anggaran +EV pada kemungkinan perpuluhan terbaik semasa (ambang: 2.0%).
Kekuatan keputusan: 6.5 / 10
- Barisan utama dikenal pasti (+1.0)
- EV utama melebihi 10% (+1.0)
- Kebarangkalian maksimum 1X2 di bawah 50% (tiada 1X2 dominan) (−1.0)
- Dua atau lebih baris +EV yang sah pada ambang (+0.5)
O/U 2.5:
EV Selesai -26.2% ·
EV Di Bawah +25%+
(10 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya -11.5% · EV No +7.9%
BTTS: EV Ya -11.5% · EV No +7.9%
Piteå market context before kickoff
⚡ Gerakan dipimpin sharp on Piteå
- Odds move
- 4.20 → 5.00 (↑ +19.0%)
- Market breadth
- 6/13
- Steam score
- 67 (A)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Kitaran Hayat Keputusan
Peringkat semasa: Amaran pengesahan model
- Ramalan Dijana
- Pasaran Berbanding
- Pengesahan Lulus
- Penutupan Dirakam
- CLV Dinilai
- Kemasukan
- 1.5
- Penutup
- Belum selesai
- CLV
- Belum selesai
Enjin Keputusan OddsGPT v2.2.0
Sentiasa diperhalusi menggunakan prestasi model, data pasaran dan keputusan sejarah.
Semak Odds di 1xBet
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 11671,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/11671.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pite\u00e5",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1505186,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_id": 6705,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6705.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ume\u00e5 FC",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_id": 563,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/563.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - Norra",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Umea",
"venue_name": "Umea Energi Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1822,
"best_odd": 4.775,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0403,
"implied_prob": 0.1902,
"model_prob": 0.2495,
"p_final": 0.201
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1786,
"best_odd": 4.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.2162,
"model_prob": 0.2874,
"p_final": 0.229
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4826,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.063,
"ev": -0.1882,
"implied_prob": 0.5936,
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"p_final": 0.5306
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"edge_no": 0.0582,
"edge_yes": -0.0592,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0787,
"ev_yes": -0.152,
"implied_no": 0.4108,
"implied_yes": 0.5892,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": -0.1422,
"edge_under": 0.1422,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"implied_over": 0.6242,
"implied_under": 0.3758,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.53,
"draw_prob": 0.2874,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4631,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.46
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.063,
"ev": -0.1882,
"implied_prob": 0.5936,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4631,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ume\u00e5 FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0582,
"ev": 0.0787,
"implied_prob": 0.4108,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1422,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1505186,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2495,
"draw": 0.2874,
"home": 0.4631
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pite\u00e5",
"home": "Ume\u00e5 FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3758,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1505186,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T06:54:58.988339+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Sweden. Ettan - Norra Ramalan
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