AI correctly predicted the Atvidabergs FF win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Atvidabergs FF Atvidabergs FF ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atvidabergs FF | 37.1% | 40.7% | -3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.1% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Lund | 33.3% | 33.2% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Atvidabergs FF win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Atvidabergs FF win 1–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atvidabergs FF 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Lund 33.4%
- xG · Atvidabergs FF 1.34 — Lund 1.26
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atvidabergs FF 2.26 · Draw 3.50 · Lund 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Atvidabergs FF 40.5% · Draw 26.2% · Lund 33.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Atvidabergs FF 2.28 · Draw 3.56 · Lund 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Atvidabergs FF 40.7% · Draw 26.1% · Lund 33.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atvidabergs FF win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
81/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.28
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Atvidabergs FF win · Atvidabergs FF 1–0 Lund
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "3/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.0%",
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},
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},
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"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
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},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
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],
"label": "Reason",
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{
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
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"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1076,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.63,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.63,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"steam_team": "Lund",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atvidabergs FF at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atvidabergs FF as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atvidabergs FF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1076,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atvidabergs FF 1.34 xG vs Lund 1.26 \u2192 Atvidabergs FF 37.1%",
"Market: Atvidabergs FF ~40.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Lund \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atvidabergs FF, but sharp money moved toward Lund.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.63,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"market_prob": 40.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.57,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.06,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Lund",
"market_prob": 33.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.41,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.61,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.41,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.39,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.48,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.48,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Atvidabergs FF",
"market_prob_pct": 40.69,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Lund"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.63,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atvidabergs FF 1.34 xG vs Lund 1.26 \u2192 Atvidabergs FF 37.1%",
"Market: Atvidabergs FF ~40.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Lund \u2193 -3.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atvidabergs FF, but sharp money moved toward Lund.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.63,
"hero_label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Lund odds shortened \u2193 -3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Lund, with odds shortening by 3.0%. Confirmation remains limited (3/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Lund, with odds shortening by 3.0%. Confirmation remains limited (3/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Lund has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.0%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.63,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.63,
"edge_pp": -3.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"market_prob_pct": 40.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.57,
"edge_pp": 3.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.06,
"edge_pp": 0.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lund",
"market_prob_pct": 33.25,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atvidabergs FF (40.7%).",
"Lund has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.0%, 3/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atvidabergs FF, Market \u2192 Atvidabergs FF, Recent sharp money \u2192 Lund.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
"closing_odds": 2.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
"entry_odds": 2.28,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "3/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Lund (swing 2.84 \u2192 2.53 \u2192 2.62) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.79",
"2.71",
"2.62"
],
"display": "2.84 \u2192 2.53 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 2m",
"pick_team": "Lund",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.84"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.7,
2.79,
2.75,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,9.5 18.7,0.0 37.3,4.2 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.79"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Lund",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"summary": "Market moved toward Lund while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Lund",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/9",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Lund",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_team_name": "Lund",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lund",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lund",
"away_team_id": 6687,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6687.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lund",
"away_team_public_id": "4NirBHtKfQAOeI",
"away_team_slug": "lund",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1504549,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Atvidabergs FF",
"home_team_id": 2162,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2162.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atvidabergs FF",
"home_team_public_id": "3SCwr6lfXOydxL",
"home_team_slug": "atvidabergs-ff",
"ht.home_team_slug": "atvidabergs-ff",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
"league_id": 564,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/564.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
"league_public_id": "3mv3qLswDEZqW8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1cOCVRX7ZIS0X1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Atvidaberg",
"venue_name": "Kopparvallen"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4493,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.0711,
"implied_prob": 0.3325,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3325,
"draw": 0.2606,
"home": 0.4069
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3329
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2841,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0365,
"implied_prob": 0.2606,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3325,
"draw": 0.2606,
"home": 0.4069
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2706
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4255,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3325,
"draw": 0.2606,
"home": 0.4069
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3914
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": -0.0249,
"ev": -0.0696,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": 0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": -0.0681,
"ev": -0.1552,
"implied_prob": 0.4386,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1629,
"alpha_yes": 0.224,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0648,
"edge_yes": -0.0648,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1148,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0696,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1146,
"implied_no": 0.3902,
"implied_yes": 0.6098,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1629,
"best_odd": 2.315,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": -0.0696,
"implied_prob": 0.3916,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4019
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.224,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.1146,
"implied_prob": 0.6084,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5942
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4019,
"p_final_yes": 0.5942,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2098,
"alpha_under": 0.1526,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": -0.1041,
"edge_under": 0.1041,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1173,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0497,
"implied_over": 0.5861,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5836,
"implied_under": 0.4139,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4164,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2098,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5622
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1526,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0497,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4319
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5622,
"p_final_under": 0.4319,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atvidabergs FF at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atvidabergs FF as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atvidabergs FF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Lund, but the model still strongly favours Atvidabergs FF.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1076,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.6,
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -20,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
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"under_prob": 0.518,
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"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1076,
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atvidabergs FF"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.0103,
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"no": {
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"edge": 0.0103,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0696,
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"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0142,
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},
"edge": 0.0648,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0155,
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"over": {
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"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1041,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1504549,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lund",
"home": "Atvidabergs FF"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1076,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4069,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4385964912280702,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1553,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1504549,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:56:04.453261+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ettan - Södra — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborgs FF | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 48 |
| 2 | Atvidabergs FF | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | Hässleholms IF | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 42 |
| 4 | Lund | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 5 | Rosengård | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 38 |
| 6 | Trollhättan | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| 7 | AFC Malmo | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Jönköpings Södra | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 9 | Tvååker | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 10 | Olympic | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 11 | Skövde AIK | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 30 |
| 12 | Eskilsminne | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 27 |
| 14 | Laholm | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 22 |
| 15 | Ängelholms FF | 23 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 18 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 24 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborgs FF | 23 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 48 |
| 2 | Atvidabergs FF | 24 | 48 | 34 | +14 | 45 |
| 3 | Lund | 24 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 41 |
| 4 | Hässleholms IF | 24 | 44 | 29 | +15 | 42 |
| 5 | AFC Malmo | 23 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 35 |
| 6 | Rosengård | 24 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 38 |
| 7 | Trollhättan | 24 | 41 | 36 | +5 | 37 |
| 8 | Olympic | 24 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 30 |
| 9 | Eskilsminne | 23 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Tvååker | 24 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 33 |
| 11 | Laholm | 24 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 22 |
| 12 | Jönköpings Södra | 24 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 33 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 24 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 |
| 14 | Skövde AIK | 24 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 30 |
| 15 | Ängelholms FF | 23 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 18 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 24 | 21 | 57 | -36 | 12 |
