Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Sweden. Elitettan / Elfsborg W vs Göteborg W

Elfsborg W vs Göteborg W Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Jun 13, 2026 - 11:00
1.33
1.27
37% 30% 34%

Penilaian Ramalan

Berhati-hatilah

Kegemaran
Elfsborg W Perlawanan seimbang
Kebarangkalian model
36.6%
Kebarangkalian pasaran
50.3%
Perjanjian pasaran
Lemah
Pengesahan
Amaran

Ringkasan:

Kedua-dua {pasukan} kurus, tetapi harga pasaran mereka lebih tinggi (50.3% vs model 36.6%). Kelebihan kekal sederhana dan perlawanan kekal terbuka.

Audit Pasaran

Perjanjian pasaran
Lemah
Pengesahan
Amaran
Jurang terbesar
Elfsborg W -13.7 pp
Keluasan
3/3
Aktiviti pasaran semasa
Belum ada pergerakan arah yang bermakna.

Anggaran saksama berbeza dengan ketara daripada harga pasaran semasa. Ini mungkin mencerminkan ketidaksetujuan yang tulen atau input penilaian yang tidak lengkap.

Penilaian Pasaran

Pasaran secara material lebih optimistik tentang {pasukan} daripada anggaran saksama semasa.

Tingkah laku pasaran semasa mencadangkan persetujuan umum bahawa {pasukan} adalah pihak yang dominan.

  • Pelabur mungkin memasukkan maklumat yang tidak dicerminkan sepenuhnya dalam model garis dasar.
  • Konteks khusus kejohanan boleh mengalihkan harga pasaran.
Hasil Adil Pasaran Tepi
Elfsborg W 36.59% 50.3% -13.7 pp
Seri 29.64% 26.68% +3.0 pp
Göteborg W 33.77% 23.01% +10.8 pp

Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.

Keputusan pertaruhan akhir

Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.

  • Tiada nilai pada 1X2 (Elfsborg W lwn. odds semasa)
  • Nilai yang mungkin: Kurang 2.5 (+4.6% EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
  • Model kurus (bukan pertaruhan lalai): BTTS Tidak
Sabitan rendah (4/10) — lebih suka taruhan yang lebih kecil atau langkau.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
+EV terbaik (pasaran dijejak)
Kurang 2.5 — Nilai
EV +4.6% Model 51.8%
+EV terkuat antara pasaran yang dijejak di sini; peraturan Primary yang lebih ketat (cth. EV minimum) tidak dipenuhi.
1X2 Nilai lemah
Elfsborg W · Kebarangkalian model 36.6%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 50.3%
EV garisan konsensus: -19.9%
Garis pembuat taruhan terbaik yang tersedia: -0.7% EV
Sesetengah odds outlier pembuat taruhan mungkin masih menunjukkan nilai teori kecil berbanding garisan konsensus di atas.
Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol Nilai lemah
Ya 54.5% · Tidak 45.5%
EV Ya -10.1% · EV No -5.8%
Condong nilai: BTTS Tidak
Cerapan skor tepat Kecua / hiburan
Paling berkemungkinan
1-1
Kebarangkalian 12.5%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Pelaksanaan: tiada Primary/alternatif saiz standard — pasaran lain mungkin +EV pada kad di bawah.
Pasaran: mungkin ada jurang kecil model–harga pada garis marginal/bervarians tinggi — bukan pertaruhan lalai; kurangkan saiz jika mencuba. (Teknikal: sekurang-kurangnya satu baris dijejak melepasi ambang +EV pada ≥2.0% pada odds terbaik — bukan pertaruhan lalai.)
Kekuatan keputusan: 4.0 / 10
  • Kebarangkalian maksimum 1X2 di bawah 50% (tiada 1X2 dominan) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: EV Selesai -20.0% · EV Di Bawah +4.6% (1 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya -10.1% · EV No -5.8%
Should you bet on this match? Bacaan budi bicara: +EV mungkin pada garis nipis atau longshot — bandingkan dengan had anda.

Kitaran Hayat Keputusan

Peringkat semasa: Amaran pengesahan model

  1. Ramalan Dijana
  2. Pasaran Berbanding
  3. Pengesahan Lulus
  4. Penutupan Dirakam
  5. CLV Dinilai
Kemasukan
1.83
Penutup
Belum selesai
CLV
Belum selesai

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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            "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Elfsborg W is the dominant side."
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            "The market materially disagrees with the model on Elfsborg W (pricing gap 13.7 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
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        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 10893,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10893.webp",
      "away_team_name": "G\u00f6teborg W",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1501409,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 21693,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/21693.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Elfsborg W",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 736,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/736.webp",
      "league_name": "Elitettan",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 11:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1678,
            "best_odd": 4.0,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.018,
            "ev": -0.0074,
            "implied_prob": 0.2301,
            "model_prob": 0.3375,
            "p_final": 0.2482
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2867,
            "best_odd": 3.45,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0085,
            "ev": -0.0501,
            "implied_prob": 0.2668,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2753
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4767,
            "best_odd": 1.83,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0653,
            "ev": -0.199,
            "implied_prob": 0.503,
            "model_prob": 0.366,
            "p_final": 0.4377
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.07,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.65,
          "edge_no": 0.0115,
          "edge_yes": -0.0115,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0582,
          "ev_yes": -0.1008,
          "implied_no": 0.4435,
          "implied_yes": 0.5565,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.66,
          "best_under_odd": 2.02,
          "edge_over": -0.0669,
          "edge_under": 0.0669,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.1999,
          "ev_under": 0.0464,
          "implied_over": 0.5489,
          "implied_under": 0.4511,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0464,
      "confidence": 4.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.06
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0464,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.4511,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0653,
          "ev": -0.199,
          "implied_prob": 0.503,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.366,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Elfsborg W"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0115,
          "ev": -0.0582,
          "implied_prob": 0.4435,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0669,
          "ev": 0.0464,
          "implied_prob": 0.4511,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1501409,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0464,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3375,
        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.366
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "G\u00f6teborg W",
        "home": "Elfsborg W"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1501409,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T05:17:09.441235+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
  • Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
  • Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
  • Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.

Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Elfsborg W & Göteborg W!

Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.

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