AI correctly predicted the San Martín Burzaco win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 San Martín Burzaco San Martín Burzaco ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín Burzaco | 36.6% | 39.8% | -3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.6% | -3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Deportivo Laferrere | 33.8% | 27.6% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Deportivo Laferrere's win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (San Martín Burzaco win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Laferrere.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced San Martín Burzaco more conservatively (30.4% vs model 36.6%, 6.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (San Martín Burzaco win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Martín Burzaco 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Deportivo Laferrere 33.8%
- xG · San Martín Burzaco 1.33 — Deportivo Laferrere 1.27
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Martín Burzaco 2.30 · Draw 2.81 · Deportivo Laferrere 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · San Martín Burzaco 39.8% · Draw 32.6% · Deportivo Laferrere 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · San Martín Burzaco 2.30 · Draw 2.81 · Deportivo Laferrere 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · San Martín Burzaco 39.8% · Draw 32.6% · Deportivo Laferrere 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Martín Burzaco win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
69/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
San Martín Burzaco win · San Martín Burzaco 2–1 Deportivo Laferrere
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "6/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
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},
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn Burzaco at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
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"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
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"items": [
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"key": "extreme_gap",
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"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.18,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.18,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn Burzaco at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn Burzaco as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Mart\u00edn Burzaco 1.33 xG vs Deportivo Laferrere 1.27 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn Burzaco 36.6%",
"Market: San Mart\u00edn Burzaco ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Laferrere odds \u2191 +14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Mart\u00edn Burzaco with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.23,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"market_prob": 39.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.95,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.18,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob": 27.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.75,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.75,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.34,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.16,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.34,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.84,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob_pct": 27.59,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Deportivo Laferrere\u0027s win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.6%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.18,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Mart\u00edn Burzaco 1.33 xG vs Deportivo Laferrere 1.27 \u2192 San Mart\u00edn Burzaco 36.6%",
"Market: San Mart\u00edn Burzaco ~39.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Laferrere odds \u2191 +14.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Mart\u00edn Burzaco with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.18,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Deportivo Laferrere odds lengthened \u2191 +14.5%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Laferrere."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"Recent line movement on Deportivo Laferrere (\u2191 +14.5%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/8) supports the current market view on Deportivo Laferrere."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.18,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.2,
"lead": "The model rates Deportivo Laferrere considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.23,
"edge_pp": -3.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"market_prob_pct": 39.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.95,
"edge_pp": -2.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.18,
"edge_pp": 6.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"market_prob_pct": 27.59,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Deportivo Laferrere.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Mart\u00edn Burzaco (39.8%).",
"Deportivo Laferrere odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.5%, 6/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"San Mart\u00edn Burzaco \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.12,
"closing_odds": 3.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.12,
"entry_odds": 3.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Deportivo Laferrere (14.5%, 6/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.32",
"2.97",
"2.62"
],
"display": "3.29 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 129h 58m",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.29"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.62,
3.32,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/8 sportsbooks on Deportivo Laferrere",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-laferrere",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"away_team_id": 1924,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1924.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"away_team_public_id": "1tmy1xzf86W9Dr",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-laferrere",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499645,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"home_team_id": 8387,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8387.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"home_team_public_id": "29Q76AyaWTgPCS",
"home_team_slug": "san-martin-burzaco",
"ht.home_team_slug": "san-martin-burzaco",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_public_id": "2N6CkighLmd0uk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3XvChZu81zfrfz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Francisco Boga Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2722,
"best_odd": 3.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0284,
"implied_prob": 0.2759,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2759,
"draw": 0.3259,
"home": 0.3982
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2927
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4301,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0127,
"ev": -0.1197,
"implied_prob": 0.3259,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2759,
"draw": 0.3259,
"home": 0.3982
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3133
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4282,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2759,
"draw": 0.3259,
"home": 0.3982
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.3844
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.32,
"edge": 0.0363,
"ev": 0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.3012,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.0594,
"ev": -0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.0688,
"ev": -0.1582,
"implied_prob": 0.4348,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.209,
"alpha_yes": 0.19,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1034,
"edge_yes": 0.1034,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1302,
"ev_yes": 0.199,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0547,
"implied_no": 0.5584,
"implied_yes": 0.4416,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4611
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5369,
"p_final_yes": 0.4611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1491,
"alpha_under": 0.205,
"best_over_odd": 2.54,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.43,
"edge_over": 0.1075,
"edge_under": -0.1075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2243,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0537,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1292,
"implied_over": 0.3745,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3676,
"implied_under": 0.6255,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6324,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1491,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3847
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0235,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6324,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6089
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3847,
"p_final_under": 0.6089,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2243,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2243,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Mart\u00edn Burzaco at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Mart\u00edn Burzaco as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Mart\u00edn Burzaco).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0197,
"market_prob": 0.4414,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1302,
"implied_prob": 0.5586,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5369
},
"p_final": 0.4611,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0547,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.19,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0197,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.4414,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4611
}
},
"edge": 0.1034,
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4416,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1491,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0171,
"market_prob": 0.3676,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1491,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3847
},
"p_final": 0.3847,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0537,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.205,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0235,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6324,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6089
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1075,
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499645,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2243,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2243,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Laferrere",
"home": "San Mart\u00edn Burzaco"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.108455,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4416,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1159,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3982,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4347826086956522,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1582,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499645,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T17:57:23.972557+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk San Martín Burzaco & Deportivo Laferrere!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera B Metropolitana — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal Sarandí | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 69 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 67 |
| 4 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 63 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 59 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 57 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 53 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 48 |
| 11 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 44 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 44 |
| 14 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 44 |
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 43 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 41 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 19 | Flandria | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 38 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 38 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 31 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 15 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 59 | 29 | +30 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal Sarandí | 37 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 69 |
| 3 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 48 |
| 4 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 63 |
| 5 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 59 |
| 6 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 40 | 21 | +19 | 67 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 57 |
| 9 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 38 | 21 | +17 | 63 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 53 |
| 11 | Dock Sud | 36 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 44 |
| 12 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 44 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 43 |
| 15 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 44 |
| 16 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 40 |
| 17 | Flandria | 36 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 38 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 40 |
| 19 | Argentino Quilmes | 36 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 41 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 15 |
| 22 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 31 |
