AI correctly predicted the Deportivo Camioneros win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Deportivo Camioneros Deportivo Camioneros ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Camioneros | 38.0% | 41.5% | -3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.2% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Argentino Quilmes | 32.4% | 26.3% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Argentino Quilmes's win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.3%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Deportivo Camioneros win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Argentino Quilmes.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Deportivo Camioneros more conservatively (31.9% vs model 38.0%, 6.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Deportivo Camioneros win 1–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Camioneros 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Argentino Quilmes 32.4%
- xG · Deportivo Camioneros 1.36 — Argentino Quilmes 1.24
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Camioneros 2.13 · Draw 2.74 · Argentino Quilmes 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Camioneros 41.5% · Draw 32.2% · Argentino Quilmes 26.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Camioneros 2.13 · Draw 2.74 · Argentino Quilmes 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Camioneros 41.5% · Draw 32.2% · Argentino Quilmes 26.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Camioneros win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
69/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.36
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Deportivo Camioneros win · Deportivo Camioneros 1–0 Argentino Quilmes
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1479,
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"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
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"text": "-14.8%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
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"max_ev": -0.0609,
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"raw_pct": -6.1,
"text": "-6.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.19,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"sort_key": 1784.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -28.4%",
"alert_team": "Argentino Quilmes",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.1,
"hero_label": "Argentino Quilmes",
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"market_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 81,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2677,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2677,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Camioneros at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Camioneros as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1479,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.19,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.1,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -28.4%",
"steam_team": "Argentino Quilmes",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2677,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2677,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Camioneros at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Camioneros as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1479,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.19,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Camioneros 1.36 xG vs Argentino Quilmes 1.24 \u2192 Deportivo Camioneros 38.0%",
"Market: Deportivo Camioneros ~41.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Argentino Quilmes \u2193 -28.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportivo Camioneros, but sharp money moved toward Argentino Quilmes.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.46,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"market_prob": 41.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.65,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.1,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Argentino Quilmes",
"market_prob": 26.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.61,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.61,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.68,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.68,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Argentino Quilmes",
"market_prob_pct": 26.29,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Argentino Quilmes"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Argentino Quilmes\u0027s win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.3%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.5,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Camioneros 1.36 xG vs Argentino Quilmes 1.24 \u2192 Deportivo Camioneros 38.0%",
"Market: Deportivo Camioneros ~41.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Argentino Quilmes \u2193 -28.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Deportivo Camioneros, but sharp money moved toward Argentino Quilmes.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.1,
"hero_label": "Argentino Quilmes",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Argentino Quilmes odds shortened \u2193 -28.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Argentino Quilmes.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Argentino Quilmes.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Argentino Quilmes.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Argentino Quilmes."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Argentino Quilmes.",
"Recent line movement on Argentino Quilmes (\u2193 -28.4%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Argentino Quilmes",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.1,
"lead": "The model rates Argentino Quilmes considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.46,
"edge_pp": -3.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"market_prob_pct": 41.47,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.65,
"edge_pp": -2.65,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.24,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.1,
"edge_pp": 6.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Argentino Quilmes",
"market_prob_pct": 26.29,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Argentino Quilmes.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Camioneros (41.5%).",
"However, Argentino Quilmes has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -28.4%, 6/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Deportivo Camioneros, Market \u2192 Deportivo Camioneros, Recent sharp money \u2192 Argentino Quilmes.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.76,
"closing_odds": 3.36,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.76,
"entry_odds": 3.36,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -28.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 28.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Argentino Quilmes (28.4%, 6/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.05",
"3.36"
],
"display": "4.75 \u2192 3.13 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 58m",
"pick_team": "Argentino Quilmes",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.13"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
3.36,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,17.5",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.36"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Argentino Quilmes \u2193 -28.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Argentino Quilmes",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Argentino Quilmes \u2193 -28.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -28.4%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Market moved toward Argentino Quilmes while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Argentino Quilmes",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 81,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -28.4%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "Argentino Quilmes",
"steam_score": 81,
"steam_team_name": "Argentino Quilmes",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Argentino Quilmes",
"away_team_id": 8376,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8376.webp",
"away_team_name": "Argentino Quilmes",
"away_team_public_id": "5UuQXedj6E3Lbq",
"away_team_slug": "argentino-quilmes",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499618,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"home_team_id": 3943,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3943.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"home_team_public_id": "1Jbv62ps5KYBUi",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-camioneros",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_public_id": "2N6CkighLmd0uk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 16:00:00",
"public_id": "2p88X7Wxd3YI0u",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Hugo Moyano"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2726,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.2629,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2629,
"draw": 0.3224,
"home": 0.4147
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2795
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4322,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0114,
"ev": -0.148,
"implied_prob": 0.3224,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2629,
"draw": 0.3224,
"home": 0.4147
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.311
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4268,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.1479,
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2629,
"draw": 0.3224,
"home": 0.4147
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": 0.0877,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": -0.069,
"ev": -0.1891,
"implied_prob": 0.365,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.0891,
"ev": -0.1899,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2001,
"alpha_yes": 0.1456,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1168,
"edge_yes": 0.1168,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.202,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1239,
"ev_yes": 0.224,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.043,
"implied_no": 0.5728,
"implied_yes": 0.4272,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1239,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.558
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.435
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.558,
"p_final_yes": 0.435,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1485,
"alpha_under": 0.2042,
"best_over_odd": 2.63,
"best_under_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1061,
"edge_under": -0.1061,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2677,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.043,
"ev_under": -0.1816,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1206,
"implied_over": 0.3759,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3655,
"implied_under": 0.6241,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6345,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3828
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6107
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3828,
"p_final_under": 0.6107,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2677,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2677,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2677,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.1,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2677,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2677,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Camioneros at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Camioneros as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Camioneros",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Argentino Quilmes, but the model still strongly favours Deportivo Camioneros.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1479,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.19,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0147,
"ev": -0.1479,
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Camioneros"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0186,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2001,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1239,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.558
},
"p_final": 0.435,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.435
}
},
"edge": 0.1168,
"ev": 0.224,
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.3655,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3828
},
"p_final": 0.3828,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6107
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1061,
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499618,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2677,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2677,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Argentino Quilmes",
"home": "Deportivo Camioneros"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.121856,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.224,
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1479,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4147,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.19,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499618,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T15:59:13.981173+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera B Metropolitana — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal Sarandí | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 69 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 67 |
| 4 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 63 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 59 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 57 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 53 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 48 |
| 11 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 44 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 44 |
| 14 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 44 |
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 43 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 41 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 19 | Flandria | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 38 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 38 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 31 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 15 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 59 | 29 | +30 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal Sarandí | 37 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 69 |
| 3 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 48 |
| 4 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 63 |
| 5 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 59 |
| 6 | Talleres Remedios | 37 | 40 | 21 | +19 | 67 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 57 |
| 9 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 38 | 21 | +17 | 63 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 53 |
| 11 | Dock Sud | 36 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 44 |
| 12 | San Martín Burzaco | 37 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 44 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 43 |
| 15 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 44 |
| 16 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 40 |
| 17 | Flandria | 36 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 38 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 40 |
| 19 | Argentino Quilmes | 36 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 41 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 15 |
| 22 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 31 |
